tajikistan presentation

Country Summary

Introduction

The Tajik people came under Russian imperial rule in the 1860s and 1870s. In 1929, the USSR designated Tajikistan a separate republic. Tajikistan became independent in 1991 following the breakup of the Soviet Union.

total: 144,100 sq km land: 141,510 sq km water: 2,590 sq km

mid-latitude continental, hot summers, mild winters; semiarid to polar in Pamir Mountains

Natural resources

hydropower, some petroleum, uranium, mercury, brown coal, lead, zinc, antimony, tungsten, silver, gold

People and Society

9,245,937 (2023 est.)

Ethnic groups

Tajik 84.3% (includes Pamiri and Yagnobi), Uzbek 13.8%, other 2% (includes Kyrgyz, Russian, Turkmen, Tatar, Arab) (2014 est.)

Tajik (official) 84.4%, Uzbek 11.9%, Kyrgyz 0.8%, Russian 0.5%, other 2.4% (2010 est.)

Muslim 98% (Sunni 95%, Shia 3%) other 2% (2014 est.)

Population growth rate

1.94% (2023 est.)

Government type

presidential republic

name: Dushanbe

Executive branch

chief of state: President Emomali RAHMON (since 6 November 1994; head of state and Supreme Assembly Chairman since 19 November 1992) head of government: Prime Minister Qohir RASULZODA (since 23 November 2013)

Legislative branch

description: bicameral Supreme Assembly or Majlisi Oli consists of: National Assembly or Majlisi Milli (34 seats; 25 members indirectly elected by local representative assemblies or majlisi, 8 appointed by the president, and 1 reserved for each living former president; members serve 5-year terms) Assembly of Representatives or Majlisi Namoyandagon (63 seats; 41 members directly elected in single-seat constituencies by 2-round absolute majority vote and 22 directly elected in a single nationwide constituency by closed-list proportional representation vote; members serve 5-year terms)

Economic overview

lower middle-income Central Asian economy; key gold, cotton, and aluminum exporter; declining poverty; sustained high growth; very limited private sector; substantial illicit drug trade; significant remittances; environmentally fragile

Real GDP (purchasing power parity)

$41.177 billion (2022 est.) $38.127 billion (2021 est.) $34.851 billion (2020 est.)

Real GDP per capita

$4,100 (2022 est.) $3,900 (2021 est.) $3,700 (2020 est.)

Agricultural products

milk, potatoes, wheat, watermelons, onions, tomatoes, vegetables, cotton, carrots/turnips, beef

aluminum, cement, coal, gold, silver, antimony, textile, vegetable oil

$1.753 billion (2022 est.) $2.161 billion (2021 est.) $1.409 billion (2020 est.)

Exports - partners

Turkey 24%, Switzerland 22%, Uzbekistan 16%, Kazakhstan 12%, China 10% (2019)

Exports - commodities

gold, aluminum, cotton, zinc, antimony, lead (2019)

$5.261 billion (2022 est.) $4.258 billion (2021 est.) $3.125 billion (2020 est.)

Imports - partners

China 40%, Russia 38%, Kazakhstan 19%, Uzbekistan 5% (2019)

Imports - commodities

refined petroleum, wheat, natural gas, bauxite, aircraft (2019)

Exchange rates

Tajikistani somoni (TJS) per US dollar - Exchange rates: 11.031 (2022 est.) 11.309 (2021 est.) 10.322 (2020 est.) 9.53 (2019 est.) 9.151 (2018 est.)

Page last updated: Wednesday, April 03, 2024

The World Bank in Tajikistan

Tajikistan’s economy expanded by 8.3% in H1 2023. Economic growth is expected to decelerate to 6.5% in 2023 due to a projected moderation in remittance inflows, lower FDI, and weaker exports.

Country Context

Over the last decade, Tajikistan has experienced strong economic performance, with growth rate averaging above 7.1%. Strong growth and higher wages helped reduce poverty from 32% of the population in 2009 to an estimated 12.4% in 2022 (at the international poverty line of $3.65/day).

Despite significant progress achieved, Tajikistan remains vulnerable to external shocks due to its high dependency on migrant remittances, the undiversified economy and export base, as well as a high risk of debt distress. The inflow of workers’ remittances accounts for a third of the annual GDP. Moreover, the private sector is small and accounts for only 15% of total investment, 30% of industrial output, and about 13 % of formal employment. While public debt is sustainable, the risk of debt distress remains high due to upcoming repayments of Eurobonds.

Tajikistan has enormous growth potential, which includes a young and growing population, water and hydropower potential, agriculture and food processing, mineral resources, tourism and much more.

The Government of Tajikistan has set an ambitious target to increase domestic incomes by 2 to 3.5 times between 2016 and 2030, which will require a new growth model based on a dynamic private sector that is motivated to invest and create jobs for the rapidly growing population. This transition requires implementing important structural reforms, focusing on public sector efficiency and transparency, including in the state-owned enterprises sector, improvements in the investment climate, energy sector reforms, trade connectivity, access to finance, and an enhanced competition framework, especially in the telecom and aviation sectors. Given Tajikistan’s high exposure to climate change risks, it is also critical to enhance environmental resilience through mitigation and adaptation measures.

Tajikistan joined the World Bank in 1993 and the International Development Association (IDA) in 1994. Since then, the World Bank has provided over $2.9 billion in grants and highly concessional credits to support Tajikistan’s efforts to reduce poverty and improve people’s lives.

The Country Partnership Framework (CPF) for 2019-2023 supports Tajikistan’s efforts to complement its remittance-financed, import-reliant economic model with a focus on boosting private-sector development and exports. The portfolio has expanded rapidly during the current CPF period. As of April 2023, the active portfolio includes 26 IDA-funded investment lending projects with a net commitment of $1.62 billion—of which 23 national operations with net IDA commitments of $1.42 billion and three regional operations purely focused on Tajikistan ($200 million). The portfolio’s largest share is in the energy sector (43%), followed by water (11%), transport (8%), education and agriculture (per 7%). Six projects were delivered and approved between  December 2022 and September 2023, amounting $250 million (including $50 million allocation from CRW):

Additional Financing for the Tajikistan Strengthening Resilience of the Agriculture Sector Project will support the government’s effort in responding to the food and nutrition security emergency and in building resilience, focusing on the short-term food and nutrition emergency needs and some medium- to long-term investments that enhance resilience of the agricultural sector.

The Resilient and Sustainable Tajikistan Development Policy Operation (DPO) approved in January 2023 is reopening development policy dialogue between the Government Of Tajikistan and the World Bank. This is the first DPO for Tajikistan since 2012 that reflects the authorities’ request for sustained World Bank support to advance structural reforms. In doing so, the DPO contributes to the implementation of Tajikistan’s National Development Strategy 2030 that strives to raise the population’s living standards based on sustainable economic development. The recent shocks caused by the COVID-19 pandemic and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine significantly increased uncertainties and risks for Tajikistan. This DPO operation will help the government respond to these challenges by providing financial support and enabling reforms in areas critical to mitigating the negative impacts of the external environment, and helping Tajikistan enhance its resilience to shocks.

The World Bank is providing Technical Assistance for Financing Framework for Rogun Hydropower Project in Tajikistan, which aims to support the Government of Tajikistan in improving the financial and commercial frameworks of the Rogun Hydropower Plant (HPP) Project and enhancing its technical, environmental, and social sustainability. The Rogun HPP Project, currently under construction, has the potential to generate significant economic, social, and environmental benefits for Tajikistan and other countries in the Central Asia region if it develops in a financially, environmentally, and socially sustainable manner.

Two new human development projects  will specifically contribute to the CPF Focus Area ‘Human Capital and Resilience’: (1) the Learning Environment – Foundation of Quality Education Project supports Tajikistan National Strategy for Education Development and aims to enhance the quality of teaching and learning environments in selected general secondary schools and (2) the Social Protection Modernization and Economic Inclusion Project will support the Government of Tajikistan in protecting poor and vulnerable households from shocks, promoting economic inclusion, and improving social protection systems.

The Tajikistan Financial and Private Sector Development Project approved in July 2023, aims to support the Government of Tajikistan by strengthening the country’s financial sector, boosting the private sector—particularly in high value-added sectors, such as agribusiness, textile, and tourism—and stimulating economic growth.

Recent Economic Developments

Tajikistan’s economy expanded by 8.3% in H1 2023, driven by robust remittance inflows stimulating household consumption and investments. The share of households with a migrant reached 48% in June 2023, with the share of households receiving remittances rising gradually from 14% in January to almost 22% in June.

The average consumer price inflation rate declined from 7.7% during the first seven months of 2022 to 3.1% over the same period in 2023.

Tajikistan’s central bank reduced the policy rate gradually from 13.5 % in September 2022 to 10% as of May 2023. Since the transmission mechanism of the monetary policy is weak, the exchange rate is the main anchor to controlling inflation in Tajikistan.

The trade deficit widened from 30% of GDP in H1 2022 to 41% in H1 2023, primarily due to the doubling of vehicle imports and a complete halt in the export of precious metals. The export of precious metals was temporarily halted to prevent the re-export of non-Tajik products due to Russian sanctions and to improve compliance with OECD standards.

Monetary authorities intervened in the foreign exchange market to support the TJS, resulting in a fall in international reserves from $3.8 billion at end 2022 to $3.2 billion at mid-2023. Reserves remain adequate at more than 6.5 months of import cover.

Economic Outlook

Tajikistan's growth is expected to decelerate to 6.5% in 2023 due to a projected moderation in remittance inflows (to 32% of GDP from the high base in 2022), lower FDI, and weaker exports. The economy's growth potential is estimated to be 4.5–5% over the medium term in the absence of structural reforms. Inflation is projected to gradually rise toward the inflation target of 6%, after hitting a low in 2023.

Over the medium term, Tajikistan’s current account deficit is projected to hover at 2.5–3% of GDP, assuming the normalization of remittance flows and lower prices for major export commodities (metals and minerals).

To ensure macro-fiscal stability, the authorities will need to allow greater exchange rate flexibility and limit the fiscal deficit at 2.5% of GDP over the medium term.

Expenditure on the construction of the Rogun HPP and other large infrastructure projects is projected to be financed by borrowing from development partners and streamlining other non-priority spending. The authorities plan to continue increasing targeted social allocations to better protect the vulnerable.

Poverty is projected to fall from 12.4% in 2022 to 11.3% in 2023. Tajikistan is highly sensitive to climate change risks and natural disasters, among other economic challenges.

Tajikistan: Commitments by Fiscal Year (in millions of dollars)*

Tajikistan and the world bank group mark 30 years of partnership, around the bank group.

Find out what the World Bank Group is doing in Tajikistan

STAY CONNECTED

Results in Tajikistan

Tajikistan & the World Bank: Partners in Development for 30 Years

Expanding Access to Safe Water in Rural Tajikistan

Tackling food insecurity in Tajikistan

Additional resources, country office contacts.

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REPUBLIC OF TAJIKISTAN

Aug 07, 2014

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