argumentative essay about global warming in africa pdf

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Global warming: severe consequences for Africa

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Record global greenhouse gas emissions are putting the world on a path toward unacceptable warming, with serious implications for development prospects in Africa.

“Limiting warming to 1.5° C is possible within the laws of chemistry and physics, but doing so would require unprecedented changes,” said Jim Skea, cochair of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Working Group III.

But IPCC, the world’s foremost authority for assessing the science of climate change, says it is still possible to limit global temperature rise to 1.5° C—if, and only if, there are “rapid and far-reaching transitions in land, energy, industry, buildings, transport, and cities.”

For sub-Saharan Africa, which has experienced more frequent and more intense climate extremes over the past decades, the ramifications of the world’s warming by more than 1.5° C would be profound.

Temperature increases in the region are projected to be higher than the global mean temperature increase; regions in Africa within 15 degrees of the equator are projected to experience an increase in hot nights as well as longer and more frequent heat waves.

The odds are long but not impossible, says the IPCC. And the benefits of limiting climate change to 1.5° C are enormous, with the report detailing the difference in the consequences between a 1.5° C increase and a 2° C increase. Every bit of additional warming adds greater risks for Africa in the form of greater droughts, more heat waves and more potential crop failures.

Recognizing the increasing threat of climate change, many countries came together in 2015 to adopt the historic Paris Agreement, committing themselves to limiting climate change to well below 2° C. Some 184 countries have formally joined the agreement, including almost every African nation, with only Angola, Eritrea and South Sudan yet to join. The agreement entered into force in November 2016.

In December 2018 countries met in Katowice, Poland, for the Conference of the Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC)—known as COP24—to finalise the rules for implementation of the agreement’s work programme.

As part of the Paris Agreement, countries made national commitments to take steps to reduce emissions and build resilience. The treaty also called for increased financial support from developed countries to assist the climate action efforts of developing countries.

But even at the time that the Paris Agreement was adopted, it was recognized that the commitments on the table would not be enough. Even if the countries did everything they promised, global temperatures would rise by 3° C this century.

According to the IPCC, projections show that the western Sahel region will experience the strongest drying, with a significant increase in the maximum length of dry spells. The IPCC expects Central Africa to see a decrease in the length of wet spells and a slight increase in heavy rainfall.

West Africa has been identified as a climate-change hotspot, with climate change likely to lessen crop yields and production, with resultant impacts on food security.

Southern Africa will also be affected. The western part of Southern Africa is set to become drier, with increasing drought frequency and number of heat waves toward the end of the 21st century.

A warming world will have implications for precipitation. At 1.5° C, less rain would fall over the Limpopo basin and areas of the Zambezi basin in Zambia, as well as parts of Western Cape in South Africa.   

But at 2° C, Southern Africa is projected to face a decrease in precipitation of about 20% and increases in the number of consecutive dry days in Namibia, Botswana, northern Zimbabwe and southern Zambia. This will cause reductions in the volume of the Zambezi basin projected at 5% to 10%.

If the global mean temperature reaches 2° C of global warming, it will cause significant changes in the occurrence and intensity of temperature extremes in all sub-Saharan regions.

West and Central Africa will see particularly large increases in the number of hot days at both 1.5° C and 2° C. Over Southern Africa, temperatures are expected to rise faster at 2° C, and areas of the southwestern region, especially in South Africa and parts of Namibia and Botswana, are expected to experience the greatest increases in temperature.

Perhaps no region in the world has been affected as much as the Sahel, which is experiencing rapid population growth, estimated at 2.8% per year, in an environment of shrinking natural resources, including land and water resources.

Inga Rhonda King, President of the UN Economic and Social Council, a UN principal organ that coordinates the economic and social work of UN agencies, told a special meeting at the UN that the region is also one of the most environmentally degraded in the world, with temperature increases projected to be 1.5 times higher than in the rest of the world.

Largely dependent on rain-fed agriculture, the Sahel is regularly hit by droughts and floods, with enormous consequences to people’s food security. As a result of armed conflict, violence and military operations, some 4.9 million people have been displaced this year, a threefold increase in less than three years, while 24 million people require humanitarian assistance throughout the region.

Climate change is already considered a threat multiplier, exacerbating existing problems, including conflicts. Ibrahim Thiaw, special adviser of the UN Secretary-General for the Sahel, says the Sahel region is particularly vulnerable to climate change, with 300 million people affected.

Drought, desertification and scarcity of resources have led to heightened conflicts between crop farmers and cattle herders, and weak governance has led to social breakdowns, says Mr. Thiaw. The shrinking of Lake Chad is leading to economic marginalization and providing a breeding ground for recruitment by terrorist groups as social values and moral authority evaporate.     

Also in this issue

Towards a safe and orderly migration

Africa Dialogue Series launched

Ending violence against women and girls in the Sahel: crucial for sustainable development

Plaudits for the man who mends women

Risky journey to Europe

A life on the move

Confronting the challenges of migration in West and Central Africa

African migrants keen to retain their cultural values abroad

Migration can be a catalyst for economic growth

Uganda stands out in refugees hospitality

2019: Year of return for African Diaspora

Egypt ‘Ify’ Ufele

A double challenge for the disabled

Africa’s freedom struggles and the Universal Declaration of Human Rights

Nigeria needs free, fair and credible elections

Crisis worsens in Cameroon

After making peace, Ethiopia and Eritrea now focus on development

Fighting ‘hidden hunger’ with fortified foods

Blue economy can be a lifeline for Africa

Kofi Annan: tribute to a rare gentleman

Book review: living together, living apart social cohesion in a future south africa, un appointments.

Africa to push development agenda at upcoming climate summit

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Climate Change and Africa’s Future

Africa is often described as the continent most at risk to the negative effects of climate change, both because of the expected change itself and because of the perceived lack of capacity of Africans and their governments to adapt. This paper provides an overview of what is known and unknown about Africa’s climate future and examines how possible changes may challenge four critical and inter-related areas: agriculture, health, migration, and conflict.

A primary conclusion is that our understanding of climate change in Africa is disturbingly poor as a result of gaping holes in historic data availability, the complicated nature of climate processes affecting tropical regions in general and Africa in particular and the severe underrepresentation of climate research and researchers on Africa. There is nonetheless broad consensus that temperatures will rise faster than global averages, with the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) base scenario projecting an increase of about 4 degrees Celsius by the end of the century, though there is little agreement on how that change will impact precipitation. As an example, models using differing but plausible assumptions about the interrelations between Africa’s climate and the melting of the Greenland ice sheet on one hand and trends in sea surface temperature on the other can produce scenarios in which rainfall in the Sahel increases 200–300 percent from current levels or falls to desert conditions. What does seem certain is that variability in timing and quantity of rainfall will increase with significant social consequences.

Africa’s agricultural sector, including livestock, is particularly vulnerable to rainfall change because of the limited ability to control water, poor agricultural research infrastructure, and already low productivity which limits options for adaptation. This vulnerability constitutes a more general threat to African states because of the continued high dependence on the sector for livelihoods and food security. Vulnerability will be compounded by growing food demand from an increasing and increasingly wealthy population.

While a changing climate will have some direct health consequences, induced changes in the extent and location within Africa of disease vectors such as mosquitos and the increased threat of zoonotic disease transmission will have a greater impact on health. Africa is also likely to face new disease challenges caused by the impacts of climate change outside the continent. For example, the thawing of northern hemisphere permafrost will free long trapped viruses that will use avian migration to move across continents. Specific predictions are impossible, but the majority of infectious diseases that have emerged in the last 100 years have had a zoonotic origin. Health systems in and outside of Africa will face new challenges.

Rising temperatures will also influence the habitability of some areas. However, the largest climate related migration pressures will likely result from diminishing agricultural opportunities, adding to the inexorable move of people from rural to urban areas already underway and, to a lesser extent, to movement across national boundaries. Migration related to climate shock has already been associated with conflict in Africa, for example in the Sahel, and Darfur has been cited as the world’s first climate conflict. While climate (or weather) has played a role in conflict and no doubt will continue do so in the future, there is limited direct evidence of climate or climate change as a primary cause of conflict. Nonetheless, local, national and international institutions designed to peacefully manage land, water, and other resources under earlier climate regimes will struggle under changing conditions.

Four caveats should be considered before using these conclusions to inform action. First, it is foolhardy to use the singular to discuss a continent with the immense geography and vast diversity of populations and systems as Africa. Some of Africa’s 50+ states will become drier, others wetter. Effects in Burundi and Burkina Faso where agriculture accounts for more than 80% of employment will be much different than in Angola, South Africa, and Mauritius where it accounts for less than 10%. Second, while the effects of climate change will be significant, they are only one driver of change amongst many including population, technologic transformation, and governmental evolution. Outcomes will depend not on climate change alone but on the human systems on which change occurs. Third, perhaps the one thing that all African governments can agree on is the culpability of the others for the climate predicaments Africa will face. A shared interest in climate solutions can perhaps ironically provide an avenue for new forms of cooperation between African states. The intercontinental dimensions of disease may also encourage new forms of cooperation between African states and the rest of the world. Finally, the history of post-Colonial Africa has been a history of adaptation to difficult conditions. Africans will continue to adapt to a generally harsher and more variable climate environment. But the path to adaptation can be made much easier if it is well paved. The paper ends with brief reflections on how this might be done.

Evidence of Change in Africa’s Climate

Our understanding of climate change is arguably weaker for Africa than any other major region. Existing historical knowledge comes from spatially disparate sources including documentary reconstruction in Southern Africa, proxy records of African alpine glacial recession, temperature proxies from lakes Tanganyika and Malawi, borehole records from southern Africa, and a limited instrumental record. 12 These sources together suggest a warming trend from the late 19th century, a period of cooling in the mid-20th century, and nearly continuous increases in temperatures from the 1970s to the present with an acceleration over the past quarter century. [SEE FIGURE 1] The most recent report of the IPCC concluded that the average temperature increase for all of Africa over the last 50-100 years has been about 0.5 degrees C. 3

In providing its overall results, the IPCC also presented spatially disaggregated temperature change calculations for the period 1901–2012 for those regions with a sufficient instrumental record. As shown in the upper left quadrant of Figure 2, the area for which data was insufficient to calculate change is as striking as the actual change. The blank area on the map is slightly more than 2/3 the size of the entire United States.

Precipitation data was even more limited, and no calculations were possible for more than half the continent, even when the period of interest was reduced to 1951-2010. [SEE FIGURE 2, LOWER LEFT] More data have since been made available, 4 but even the expanded collection has 100-year records from only 300–400 stations. This is approximately equivalent to having only one station for a country the size of Denmark. Since stations with longer records tend to be spatially clustered based on colonial interests, data gaps are functionally even more pronounced than averages suggest.

There has been a major reduction since the early 1980s in the number of stations from which data is available [SEE FIGURE 3] due to a decline in the number of functioning stations (e.g. in the D.R. Congo) and increasing costs and difficulty in accessing data that does exist. Because of data gaps, scientists studying African climate have developed multiple sources with the result that many models are based on differing base data, complicating comparison and the development of shared understanding of processes. 5

Based on the longest possible time series (typically mid-19 th century), consistent, though often statistically insignificant, declines in precipitation over the vast majority of the continent are evident, with exceptions primarily in central and eastern Africa. 6 Trends based on the IPCC’s shorter time frames (half century) are more spatially varied, with decreases in perception along the Sahel belt and in the western equatorial region and increases in the north and south and the eastern equatorial region, though most trends were again not statistically significant. [SEE FIGURE 2, LOWER LEFT] The differences between the two time series highlight the temporally and spatially complicated relationship between temperature and precipitation. They also highlight the challenge of isolating the direct impact of climate change on African precipitation from other multi-decadal processes, which themselves are changing with a changing climate, as discussed further below.

Finally, as important as changes in averages are changes in extremes. Africa has experienced hotter and longer heat waves of greater spatial extent in the 21st century than in the last 2 decades of the 20th century. 7 Longer periods without rain and more intense precipitation when rainfall does occur have also been observed. 8,9,10 The seasonal timing of rainfall has also shifted, changing cropping seasons and generally shortening the growing season.

Expected Future Impacts of Global Climate Change on Africa’s Climate

The exemplar of global climate change is rising atmospheric temperatures. The warming atmosphere in turn accelerates the hydrologic cycle by increasing its water holding capacity (7% increase per degree C increase) and by increasing potential evapotranspiration (2% increase per degree C increase). While average global rainfall increases with rising temperatures, the drivers behind its distribution and variation continue, implying even greater precipitation near the equator, further reductions towards the subtropical highs at approximately 30 degrees north and south latitude, and greater intra- and inter-year variability overall. [SEE APPENDIX for an explanation of global climate systems and Africa]

Models of these mechanisms drive the IPCC’s projections of Africa’s climate future. The IPCC’s base scenario (RCP8.5) shows average temperatures in Africa rising faster than global averages, increasing 2.0 degrees Celsius above the mid-20 th century baseline by 2050 and 4 degrees above by the end of the 21 st century. The greatest increase is in the desert north and south and lowest near the equator.

Under the same IPCC scenario, warmer temperatures are projected to intensify existing precipitation patterns, with increases in rainfall in equatorial regions of up to 30% and decreases of 10–20% in Africa’s far north and south. [SEE FIGURE 4, BOTTOM RIGHT] There is also a general agreement that extreme events (higher high temperatures, longer periods between rainfall, more intense rainfall) and variability will increase, but little certainty on the extent or geographic variation.

All precipitation scenarios are in fact highly uncertain, and reasonable but differing assumptions and models of global processes can result in projections for Africa with substantial differences in both sign and magnitude. For example, Defrance et al. (2017) 11 demonstrate how the melting of the Greenland ice sheet could rapidly and drastically reduce precipitation from the west African monsoon, substantially reducing arable land. They estimate that tens to hundreds of millions of people would be forced to migrate from rural to urban areas in response. In contrast, Schewe & Levermann (2017) 12 show how Sahelian rainfall could abruptly increase 40–300% once sea surface temperature increases beyond a relatively low threshold.

Implications for Africa

Temperatures in Africa have risen, rainfall patterns changed, and warming will continue with large, but largely uncertain impacts, on rainfall. We now turn to how these changes may impact agriculture and health and in turn influence migration and conflict.

Agriculture, Agricultural Livelihoods, and Food Security

A large share of African agriculture already occurs at the thermal and rainfall limits of current crops, and so small increases in temperature and/or decreases in water availability will have disproportionately large consequences on arable area and yield. The IPCC base scenario projects negative consequences for the overwhelming majority of the continent’s agriculture, with the north and south particularly hard hit. The highlands of east and north-east Africa are expected to benefit because of higher rainfall and carbon fertilization. While the IPCC provides little analysis of the critically important livestock sector, other projections suggest substantial, though uneven, negative effects due to direct physiological stress on animals from higher temperatures, reductions in forage availability and quality, and other factors. 13 The potential harm to herders is obvious, but poor farmers often derive large shares of their incomes from livestock and will also be disproportionately affected. There are also implications for conflict between farmers and herders as has been publicized, for example, in the Sahel, that are described below.

Impacts on agriculture and, to a lesser extent livestock, could be substantially mitigated through water control (irrigation and the storage infrastructure behind it), allowing farmers to adapt to changes in absolute levels of rainfall, increased variability in its timing, and shifts in its arrival. Africa, however, has by far the lowest level of water control of any world region. As a comparison, the United States has the ability to store 6,000 cubic meters of water per person. Africa’s storage capacity is 120 cubic meters per person, the lowest of any major world region. Of this limited storage, the majority is in Zimbabwe and South Africa in the south and the Maghreb and Egypt in the north, leaving most of the continent at the mercy of the skies. While limited water control is partly a failure of finance and political will, a major reason is geographic. Few of Africa’s river systems are well suited to irrigation development. In addition, Africa is not blessed with aquifers that could fuel the groundwater irrigation revolutions that have driven agricultural growth over the last half-century in South Asia, China, the United States, Australia and elsewhere.

Research and extension related to seed development and farming practices could also provide a means for agrarian adaptation. Africa lags the world though in agricultural research, partly a legacy of colonial and Green Revolution era neglect but exacerbated and continued by the choices of most African governments. Public and private investment in agricultural research now makes up less than 4% of global totals even though Africa accounts for 17% of the world population. 14 Recognizing the problem of low investment, African states and international partners began in 2006 to use the Comprehensive Africa Agriculture Development Programme (CAADP) under the African Union to set and monitor national targets for agricultural research and extension. While useful in drawing attention to the issue of research investment, most states still fail to meet their own funding goals, and nearly half of all African states spend less now on agricultural research than they did in 1980 after adjusting for the rising costs of research. 15

An already difficult climate, limited water control, and under-investment in research have all contributed to Africa’s low agricultural productivity. Average grain yields have only recently risen above one ton per hectare, a commonly referenced threshold of minimal productivity. There are notable positive exceptions to the low averages, including the countries of the Maghreb, Egypt, and South Africa. With over 80% of land holdings less than one hectare 16 and with limited off farm employment in most rural areas, low productivity translates into poverty and therefore limited ability to invest in adaptation, withstand variability, and generate surplus for urban consumers. Incentives to invest in productivity enhancement are further reduced by poor infrastructure that reduces market access.

The climate challenges to agriculture in Africa are all the more significant given that the sector still accounts for more than 50% of employment and that rural populations are expected to continue rising for at least another decade. However, while the challenges are many, there are reasons to doubt the most apocalyptic scenarios of Africa’s agricultural and food security future. African farmers have faced significant challenges from all fronts throughout the independence period. Rather than falling into Malthusian collapse, the agricultural sector has grown, just keeping up with already rapid population growth and highlighting the ability of African farmers, if not always their governments and the donor community, to adapt to challenging and changing conditions even with limited resources. Nonetheless, most analyses of the physical impacts of climate change on African agriculture assume no adaptation by farmers. Farmers choose crops to match current conditions and as conditions change, crops, seeds, and farming systems will change with them, partly mitigating negative effects. This process may be helped by rapidly declining costs in some areas of biotechnology that will make it increasingly possible to produce seeds that meet the changing needs of highly varied African farmers in ways the previous Green Revolution did not. However, taking advantage of this opportunity will require changes in the way international agricultural research is conceived and the nature of public-private partnerships in research.

Health and Health Systems

Many northern Africa cities are already located where peak temperatures are near the limits of human capacity. Expected increases in temperature, particularly higher peak temperature as well as longer heat waves, will increase mortality if countervailing measures are not taken (e.g. India has dramatically reduced heat wave fatalities through simple measures including public and medical sector awareness, changes in school and office hours, and opening of parks). The effect may be locally significant for some large conurbations in the north, but modest in the overall context of African mortality. Locally significant health impacts can similarly be expected from other climate related changes including increased rainfall variability (i.e. drought and flood) and greater likelihood of dust storms.

More significant health impacts are likely to occur as a result of shifts in the geographic distribution of vector-borne and zoonotic disease. 17 As examples, shifts are predicted in the areas most suitable for year-round malaria transmission from coastal West Africa to the region between the Democratic Republic of Congo and Uganda, 18 and there is already evidence that malarial zones in east Africa have extended above 1000 meters as temperature and rainfall have increased. Disease burden may of course decline in other areas as they become less suitable for existing disease vectors.

Shifts in disease distribution will also cause new health pressures. In the short term, health systems may not be prepared for diagnosis and treatment. Over the longer term, populations without previous exposure will continue to be challenged by limited natural immunity and new disease interaction. HIV-infected individuals, for example, are much more susceptible to Malaria infection than the overall population. 19

Climate change will also drive changes in the geography of vertebrate wildlife due to habitat modification and movement of human populations (see below) searching for new agricultural and pasture opportunities. Separately and together these movements will bring new interactions between wildlife, livestock, and humans. While the health impacts are hard to predict in their specifics, over 60% of human pathogens are zoonotic or transmissible from animals, 20 and most emerging infectious diseases of current concern (e.g. HIV/AIDS, SARS, H1N1, MERS) are zoonotic. New interactions will bring new infectious disease.

New pathogens will also result from climate change impacts outside the African continent. In 2016-17, the avian influenza virus H5N8 spread from poultry farms in China to Russia and West Africa via wild bird migration as shown in Figure 4. 21,22 The impact of this latest wave of bird flu was primarily on the poultry sector rather than humans, and there is no reason to attribute the event to climate change. However, we know that bacteria and viruses are deposited by migrating avian populations in the extremes of northern temperate regions and lie dormant in snow and ice for years, decades, or centuries. Higher temperatures are melting permafrost and freeing long-dormant bacteria and viruses for which humans have no recent immunity. Pathogens will use avian migration to move across large distances 23,24 and create new risks for avian to human crossover. Again, while specific predictions are problematic, the global impact has the potential to be catastrophic as we learned just a century ago during the Spanish Flu pandemic.

As explained by Morens and Fauci, two leaders in our understanding of global infectious disease, human health outcomes are a function of the microbial agent itself, the condition of the human host as well as the human environment. 25 The negative impacts of climate change on health outcomes will be amplified to the extent that the food and water security challenges discussed above are not addressed and reduced to the extent that health systems are prepared for future change. Unfortunately, national health systems in many African state are ill-prepared even for current health challenges. 26 The 2014-16 Ebola outbreak showed that the capability of international health systems to deal with global disease challenges was much lower than hoped.

Increasing peak temperatures and heat waves will reduce the habitability of some cities, causing outright migration to other urban centers as discussed above, though likely slowing the ongoing rate of in-migration as well. Because Africa’s physical geography tends not to encourage large coastal populations, sea level rise is not likely to be as significant a force in migration as expected in some other regions, though local exceptions may exist including in Egypt and Ghana.

More significant climate related population shifts can be expected from rural to urban areas. We know already that significant rural-to-urban migration in Africa can occur in response to low rainfall, for example as occurred during the Sahelian drought of the 1970s when farmers moved southwards to urban centers. 27,28,29,30 The potential for future movement is substantial, since more than half of Africa’s population is still engaged directly in agriculture and more than 2/3 still resides in rural areas.

However, the propensity to migrate from rural to urban areas is a function of multiple variables including but not limited to socio-economic status, group affiliation, and urban opportunity. In some cases, only the financially well off may be able to use migration as an adaptive response to worsening environmental conditions, because migration is costly. In other cases, women and men with high social capital may pool their household resources to create financial buffers significant enough to mitigate the impact of environmental changes that might otherwise have pushed them to migration. 31

While often presented as a problem to be avoided, urbanization can be a force for improved livelihoods, since labor productivity and wage opportunities in urban manufacturing and service sectors are generally higher than in agriculture. Rural out migration can in turn motivate productivity increases of remaining agricultural labor. This is the story of Europe, much of Asia and the United States, where farming now accounts for just 2% of employment. But for the opportunity of urbanization to be fulfilled, it must be driven at least as much by the pull of opportunity in cities as the push from worsening rural conditions. This means that national economic policy and performance and its impact on cities is critical to rural climate adaption.

There has been substantial discussion of the potential impact of climate change on international migration, both within Africa and from Africa to other regions, particularly Europe. There are clear examples when climate crises drove populations across African borders (e.g. the Sahel crises from the 1970s through the 1980s), and we can expect an increase in the number of climate events that could contribute to rapid migration in the future. However, the specific impact of climate events or climate change on movement across African borders, like its impact on rural to urban migration, has been and will continue to be a function of many variables including the nature of colonial borders, current politics, and the overall state of national economies.

At the intra-continental level, one recent publication suggested that rising temperatures will substantially increase the pressure for migration to Europe, with asylum applications increasing between 100,000 and 600,000 per year by the end of the century. 32 However, the primary drivers of cross-continent migration remain economic opportunity and political instability, not climate. 33,34 Climate change may well increase pressures for movement, but participation in extra-continental migration is not an option for those most vulnerable to expected climate impacts, the rural poor, since the process is both arduous and costly.

Finally, it is important to keep in mind the potential magnitude of climate change impacts on migration given existing trends and politics in source and receiving regions. Urbanization in Africa, while lagging many other regions, is underway. Data is poor, but conservative estimates placed the rural to urban migration rate at a little over 1%/year from 1990 to 2000. 35 It has likely increased since. Climate change induced urbanization will add to rather than define the trend. According to the U.N., migration out of Africa from all sources is expected to play a minimal role in Africa’s overall demographic trends. 36 Even if rates increased substantially above the U.N.’s projections due to climate change, the impact on Africa’s overall population would still be small. However, the political implications for receiving countries in Europe could still be substantial.

Intra- and Interstate Conflict and Cooperation

As described, there is a general consensus that climate change will negatively impact the majority of African agriculture, put increased strain on health systems, and contribute to migration pressures within and across states. A key question is whether the increased competition for resources and new patterns of interaction caused by these changes will lead to increased levels of conflict. The running discourse is that they will.

In April 2007, the U.N. Security Council held its first-ever debate on climate change as a global security issue. The Darfur wars of the early 21st century, which followed a series of severe droughts, have since frequently been described as the world’s first climate conflict and substantial discussion has now focused on the role of climate change in increasing conflict in Africa. However, more nuanced analysis suggests that direct linkages between climate/climate change and conflict are much weaker than commonly assumed. In the Darfur example, the Khartoum government dismantled a native administration system in the 1970s that had traditionally been used to manage grazing rights, access to watering points, cattle transit, crop rotations, and, critically, migrant integration. When drying and drought later occurred, migrants ignored the earlier customary law in making new land claims. Rebel groups formed in Darfur to retaliate. These were themselves countered by northern Arab militias armed by the government to support broader political objectives. 37 The Darfur story is different in detail but not concept from that provided a quarter century earlier for northern Nigeria during the Sahel drought of the early 1970s. 38 In both cases the proximate cause of conflict may have been drought but the ultimate causes were a combination of other factors including the decline or destruction of long developed institutions capable of adapting to change, including climate change.

There are many reasons the role of climate in African conflict in particular may be overemphasized (e.g. discussions of drought in California and Australia are not usually framed in language of widespread violent conflict or civil war). First, post-Cold War analysis of the African environment has been securitized. 39 In other words, there is an active search for a connection between climate change and African conflict as there had been in the 1970s and 80s between (poor) African land stewardship and desertification. Second, African case studies have tended to focus on a limited set of accessible regions that have experienced both climate change/variability and conflict, creating conditions for overstating positive linkages while failing to explain peaceful outcomes. 40 Finally, many large-N analyses of Africa explore correlations between climate and conflict but do not present theory through which causation could be tested. 41 Unfortunately this means that more informed understanding of climate and conflict can be missed. For example, countering the conventional causation assumptions, one recent study found that conflict increased when increased rainfall expanded food abundance, since armed groups can only operate where food is available to procure. 42

Most of the focus on climate and conflict in Africa has been on the changes in the African climate. As a major food importer (particularly North Africa), Africa is also vulnerable to food price shocks caused by climate impacts in the world’s major agricultural exporters. Abrupt food price rises are consistently associated with urban upheaval and sometimes violent conflict as most governments know and as the Arab spring, which started in Africa, attests.

Any change creates new pressures that can lead to conflict. But assuming that climate change will directly lead to conflict in Africa is as misguided as ignoring the strains that will be placed on already challenged social and economic systems. In the end the real questions are related to institutional and political capacity to deal with change, and on that front we have at least some hope. As put by Witmer, “If political rights continue to improve at the same rate as observed over the last three decades, there is reason for optimism that overall levels of violence will hold steady or even decline in Africa, in spite of projected population increases and rising temperatures.” 43

On that positive note, we must also remember that even the negative impacts of climate change can sometimes be turned into new opportunities for cooperation. Northern states must cooperate with African governments if they want to protect their own citizens from the potentially devastating effects of emerging infectious disease. And the one item perhaps all African leaders can agree on is that the climate change costs Africa must now bear are the result of choices made outside of Africa. This consensus may provide a pathway for African states to cooperate in demanding solutions.

Some Thoughts on Paving the Adaptation Path

There can be no single best approach or sets of approaches to climate change adaptation for a continent as large and diverse as Africa. However, there are a number of considerations that can help frame particular strategies and tactics. We outline here some of them.

Greater understanding of African climate and climate change – Science to understand climate in Africa is woefully lacking compared to much of the rest of the world. Simply put, substantially more investment is needed to improve our understanding African climate and its relationship to global climate processes.

More research by Africans for Africa – The impact of science investment will be greater if it is driven to a much greater extent by African researchers responsible to their own constituencies and governments than is currently the case. For example, African farmers are rightly more interested in knowledge on current rainfall variability that can inform planting decisions than multi-decadal trends in average temperature that may be more of interest to the international community.

More investment in agricultural research and new approaches to water investment – With or without additional Africa-centric climate research, the worldwide biotechnology revolution now unfolding holds tremendous promise for agricultural adaptation in Africa’s heterogeneous landscapes. Capitalizing on the opportunity will require a new prioritization of agricultural research in general and new approaches to national, international, and private research partnerships. For much of the continent, adaptation will be further facilitated by investments emphasizing improved on-farm soil and water management rather than expansion of large-scale irrigation.

Broadened approaches to food security – Better adapted seeds and agricultural practices are important to food security in Africa under climate change but so too is investment in supporting storage and transportation infrastructure as well as market access within and between African states. In many cases though, food security will only be assured if both physical and economic access to international agricultural markets is assured. This requires international regimes that support predictable and reliable trade flows as well as economic environments that support national income growth.

Urbanization and migration as adaptation strategies – Urbanization can be a source for income growth and a positive adaptive response to climate change. But only if it is driven at least as much by the pull of opportunity as the push from worsening rural conditions. National economic policy and its relation to urban growth is thus critical to rural adaption options. Climate change is unlikely to drive migration out of the continent at rates significant to African populations. However, the political implications of these “small” numbers will still be high, giving Europe and the rest of the international community incentive to ensure an international system fair to African trade and investment.

Health systems preparedness – Strong health systems arguably provide the single best pathway for livelihood improvement with or without climate change. The global threat of climate change-related emerging infectious disease draws international attention, but it cannot be addressed without strengthening underlying national health systems.

Conflict and cooperation – Climate change will increase stress on resources as well as existing formal and informal institutions to manage them at local, national, and international levels. But climate change will also bring new impetus for cooperation. As important as it is to focus on conflict mitigation, we should not miss the opportunity to use the threats from climate change as a chance to foster new cooperation.

Appendix: African Climate within the Global Climate System

Solar energy is globally highest in equatorial regions where the sun’s rays are most direct and pass through the narrowest band of atmosphere. It is redistributed north and south towards the poles, in part, by a series of atmospheric circulation cells. The resulting patterns of air temperature and pressure produce distinct patterns of precipitation, with high rainfall near the equator where evaporation is strongest gradually decreasing poleward until approaching zero at around 30 degrees north and south latitude in areas known as the Sub-Tropical Highs. (Different processes drive precipitation at still higher latitudes). This precipitation pattern translates into vegetation patterns typified by rainforests near the equator tapering north and south to deserts.

The African continent is almost centered on the equator, and its latitudinal extension so expansive that it reaches into and beyond the northern and southern Sub-Tropical Highs. As a result, Africa’s climate exemplifies global patterns and results in an equatorial rainforest belt in central Africa tapering into two of the world’s greatest deserts, the Sahara in the north and the Kalahari in the south. Notable regional exceptions include the highlands of Ethiopia and North Africa where orographic (i.e. related to mountains) rainfall dominates and eastern Madagascar where ocean circulation processes drive coastal rainfall.

While this describes Africa’s longer-term (century or more) climate, African and other tropical climates are strongly influenced by large-scale teleconnections, particularly as related to sea surface temperature, which operate at multi-decadal time scales. For example, changes in the Atlantic El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) are now understood to be the primary cause of the Sahelian droughts of the 1970s and 80s as well as the recent trend towards normal rainfall patterns. 44,45 Similarly, declines in East African rainfall over the past few decades are now associated with changes in Indian Ocean circulation, 46,47 and the general downward trend in African precipitation beginning in the 1980s now appears associated with changes in the western Pacific. 48,49,50,51,52

These equatorial processes contrast with mid-latitude climates (e.g. North America and Europe) controlled more by synoptic (local) factors and internal variability. As is discussed in the main text, this difference has important implications for our understanding of climate change in Africa, including its causes and impacts, and appropriate policy response.

Mark Giordano is the director of the Program in Science, Technology, and International Affairs and the Cinco Hermanos Chair in Environment and International Affairs in Georgetown University’s School of Foreign Service. Elisabeth Bassini is a student at Georgetown’s School of Foreign Service.

Supporting Data

Figure 1. African annual mean temperature anomalies 53

Figure 3. Number of African weather stations with precipitation data available in each year 55

Figure 4. Spread of Bird Flu Virus H5N8, 2016-17 56

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Africa can play a leading role in the fight against climate change

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Ngozi okonjo-iweala ngozi okonjo-iweala nonresident distinguished fellow - global economy and development , africa growth initiative @noiweala.

January 8, 2020

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Below is Chapter 4 of the  Foresight Africa 2020 report , which explores six overarching themes that provide opportunities for Africa to overcome its obstacles and spur inclusive growth. Download the paper to see the contributing viewpoints from high-level policymakers and other Africa experts.

Research from the New Climate Economy shows that bold climate action could deliver at least $26 trillion in global economic benefits between now and 2030. It could also generate over 65 million new low-carbon jobs by 2030, a number equivalent to the combined workforces of the United Kingdom and Egypt today; avoid over 700,000 premature deaths from air pollution compared with business-as-usual; and generate an estimated $2.8 trillion in government revenues in 2030 through subsidy reform and carbon pricing alone. 1

Delivering the benefits of a new climate economy requires ambitious action across key economic systems, creating the conditions for the phaseout of coal and rapid scale-up of renewables in the energy sector; investing in shared, electric, and low-carbon transport in cities; scaling up sustainable food and land use systems, including forest landscape restoration; targeting investment to resilient water infrastructure; and reducing emissions from key industrial value chains, such as plastic.

However, if the world fails to step up climate action, continuing on our current climate trajectory could force 100 million people into extreme poverty by 2030. 2 Africa is the most-exposed region to the adverse effects of climate change despite contributing the least to global warming.

If fairness was the only goal, the impetus to act would lie solely with developed economies. Make no mistake, the big emitters absolutely must step up their domestic climate action, and quickly. But building the new climate economy is also a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity that every African nation should prioritize and claim a stake in.

This opportunity is why, despite historically negligible carbon emissions, despite only accounting for 2 percent of world coal demand, and despite the lack of leadership from some developed countries, many African countries are now making serious efforts to transition towards low-carbon technologies, low-carbon and resilient infrastructure, and low-carbon tax systems.

Morocco has built the world’s largest concentrated solar facility to help achieve the country’s goal of 52 percent renewable energy mix by 2030. The advanced 6,000-acre solar complex, Noor, serves as a clean energy source for around 2 million Moroccans, and provides pivotal job opportunities as the country transitions away from the fossil fuel industry. 5 The solar complex is also offering training programs for women for entrepreneurial and agricultural activities and is recruiting women in decision-making roles to guide project activities. 6

South Africa’s Carbon Tax Act, which places specific levies on greenhouse gases from fuel combustion and industrial processes and emissions, came into effect in June 2019. 7 By 2035, the carbon tax could reduce the country’s emissions by 33 percent relative to the baseline. 8 Furthermore, South Africa’s recent renewable energy auctions have led to solar and wind prices lower than those of the national utility or from new coal plants. 9 Often regarded as the continent’s clean energy trailblazer, much of what has been learned through South Africa’s renewable energy procurement process can influence similar developments across Africa.

My own country, Nigeria, which struggles with electricity access for a majority of its population, has set a renewable energy target of 30 percent by 2030. 10 This goal underscores the potential for both grid-based and decentralized renewable energy investments to deliver energy access and climate change benefits simultaneously. Notably, off-grid solutions—like M-Kopa and Lumos that deliver electricity to thousands of households on the continent—and mini-grids are important options in both unserved rural areas and underserved urban areas. Natural resource-rich African countries, like Nigeria, should see renewables as a central part of achieving universal energy access while setting themselves on a pathway for low-carbon and resilient development.

The biggest energy companies see this future too and are working to diversify their global portfolios. As of September 2019, the world’s major oil companies had made about 70 clean-energy deals, putting them on track to surpass the total for 2018. 11 Shell, for instance, has invested in SolarNow, which sells high-quality solar solutions in Uganda and Kenya. Since its inception in 2011, SolarNow has supplanted 210,000 tons of greenhouse gas emissions. 12 More African countries should insist upon being recipients of this 21st century investment.

While the private sector is driving the shift into renewables, state-owned enterprises (SOE) in the energy sector—in Africa and globally—are lagging behind. 13 African governments need to support reform in the SOE sector by, for example, introducing competitive procurement for electricity supply. This strategy could open African institutions and markets to emerging opportunities in the renewable sector, and even drive down the price of renewables. 14 Efforts such as South Africa’s Renewable Energy Independent Power Producer Procurement (REIPPP) program and the World Bank and International Finance Corporation’s Scaling Solar program have resulted in solar prices as low as $0.05/kilowatt-hour.

Whether driven by opportunism or a sense of moral justice, the world’s developed and emerging economies must take action at home and help Africa deliver the investments that will bring the goals of the Paris Agreement within reach.

With an abundance of solar, wind, and geothermal resources, African countries already have a comparative advantage in renewables. The falling costs of green technologies provide a propitious moment to be on the delivery end of the new energy revolution. And while it may seem counterintuitive, Africa’s most oil- and gas-rich countries should be leading the energy revolution. Beyond the energy sector, food and land use systems—including the agriculture and forestry sectors—are integral to sub-Saharan Africa’s economy, accounting for 70 percent of livelihoods and almost one-quarter of regional GDP. In fact, new business opportunities in sustainable food and land use systems could deliver $320 billion each year by 2030 across sub-Saharan Africa. 15 These opportunities include $120 billion in forest ecosystem services and restoration of degraded land, $100 billion in increased agricultural yields, and $100 billion in supply chain efficiency improvements and enhanced value-adding capacity. Concerted landscape restoration efforts in Ethiopia’s Tigray region, for example, are enhancing farmers’ resilience, water availability, and livelihoods. 16 Such sustainable food and land use approaches can deliver multiple co-benefits, from reducing rural poverty, to boosting food security and improving population health, to protecting and regenerating natural capital.

Africa’s transition to a new climate economy is underway in many places. The question is: Will developed countries create a tail-wind or a head-wind? How they answer this question will determine whether Africa is positioned to fully capitalize on this opportunity. While it may not be polite to say so, African countries need money—both to build a cleaner more prosperous future for themselves and to avoid the worst impacts of climate change created largely by others.

The pending replenishment of the Green Climate Fund (GCF) acts as both a mechanism and a barometer for this challenge. The good news is that in October 2019, 27 countries confirmed their pledge to the GCF’s replenishment, bringing the total raised so far to $9.7 billion. 17 The GCF is critical for maintaining momentum behind the Paris Agreement by supporting developing countries to enhance their climate action. But, so far, some major contributors have been silent. We need to hear from them.

African leaders cannot do this alone. And nor should they. Whether driven by opportunism or a sense of moral justice, the world’s developed and emerging economies must take action at home and help Africa deliver the investments that will bring the goals of the Paris Agreement within reach.

Related Content

Ahmadou Aly Mbaye

January 16, 2020

Simeon K. Ehui, Holger A. Kray, Elliot Mghenyi

January 30, 2020

• Global Commission on the Economy and Climate, Unlocking the Inclusive Growth Story of the 21 st Century: Accelerating Climate Action in Urgent Times (Washington D.C.: New Climate Economy, 2018).
• Stephen Hallegatte et al., Shock Waves: Managing the Impacts of Climate Change on Poverty (Washington D.C.: World Bank, 2016).
• Mark Yarnell and Devon Cone, Devastation and Displacement: Unprecedented Cyclones in Mozambique and Zimbabwe a Sign of What’s to Come? (Washington D.C.: Refugees International, 2019).
• Abdi Latif Dahir, “Africa’s fastest-growing cities are the most vulnerable to climate change globally,” World Economic Forum , December 21, 2018.
• Climate Investment Funds, “Solar plant the size of San Francisco powers Morocco’s sunlit ambitions,” Climate Home News , January 22, 2019.
• African Development Bank, Ouarzazate Solar Complex Project – Phase II (NOORo II and NOORo III Power Plants) (Abidjan: African Development Bank, 2014).
• Republic of South Africa, Act No. 15 of 2019: Carbon Tax Act, 2019 (Cape Town: Government of South Africa, 2019).
• Sifiso M. Ntombela, Heinrich R. Bohlmann, and Mmatlou W. Kalaba, “Greening the South Africa’s Economy Could Benefit the Food Sector: Evidence from a Carbon Tax Policy Assessment,” Environmental and Resource Economics 74, no. 2 (2019): 891-910.
• “Advancing Africa with Renewable Energy Auctions,” International Renewable Energy Agency , May 16, 2018.
• Jan Corfee-Morlot et al., Achieving Clean Energy Access in Sub-Saharan Africa (Paris: OECD/Financing Climate Futures, 2019).
• Timothy Abington and Kelly Gilblom, “Shell Leads Big Oil in the Race to Invest in Clean Energy,” Bloomberg , September 4, 2019.
• See https://www.solarnow.eu .
• Andrew Prag, Dirk Rottgers, and Ivo Scherrer, “State-Owned Enterprises and the Low-Carbon Transition ,” OECD Environment Working Papers 129 (2018).
• Andrew Herscowitz, “The Unintended Consequences of Falling Solar Prices in Africa,” Medium , May 23, 2018.
• Food and Land Use Coalition, People, Health and Nature: A Sub-Saharan African Transformation Agenda (London: Food and Land Use Coalition, 2019).
• Cathy Watson, “Landscape restoration in Ethiopia brings watershed to life,” Agroforestry World , June 6, 2017.
• “Countries step up ambition: Landmark boost to coffers of the world’s largest climate fund,” Green Climate Fund, October 25, 2019.

Global Economy and Development

Sub-Saharan Africa

Africa Growth Initiative Brookings Initiative on Climate Research and Action

Angela R. Pashayan

February 29, 2024

Jenny Schuetz, Adie Tomer, Julia Gill, Caroline George

December 4, 2023

Carlos Martín, Carolyn Kousky, Karina French, Manann Donoghoe

November 13, 2023

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• Published: 10 November 2022

African perspectives on climate change research

• Maha Al-Zu’bi   ORCID: orcid.org/0000-0001-9810-0103 1 ,
• Sintayehu W. Dejene   ORCID: orcid.org/0000-0002-5677-7324 2 ,
• Jean Hounkpè   ORCID: orcid.org/0000-0002-5521-9339 3 ,
• Olga Laiza Kupika   ORCID: orcid.org/0000-0002-3512-5829 4 ,
• Shuaib Lwasa   ORCID: orcid.org/0000-0003-4312-2836 5 , 6 ,
• Mary Mbenge 7 ,
• Caroline Mwongera   ORCID: orcid.org/0000-0002-4866-9526 8 ,
• Nadia S. Ouedraogo   ORCID: orcid.org/0000-0002-6544-6359 9 &
• N’ Datchoh Evelyne Touré   ORCID: orcid.org/0000-0003-3139-6581 10  

Nature Climate Change volume  12 ,  pages 1078–1084 ( 2022 ) Cite this article

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• Climate-change adaptation
• Climate-change ecology
• Climate sciences
• Developing world
• Energy and society

The 27th Conference of the Parties (COP27) is being held in November 2022 in Sharm el-Sheikh, Egypt. Having a climate summit hosted in an African country makes it timely to highlight climate change research from the continent. We asked a selection of researchers to share their thoughts on current research questions and how they affect African responses to climate change.

The countries of Africa have contributed comparatively little to anthropogenic emissions, yet the continent feels the impacts of global warming in many different ways, with changes in hydroclimate, biodiversity and wildfire dynamics already visible today. These changes happen simultaneously with considerable societal and economic transformations in many countries. Thus, it is no wonder that much exciting research is conducted on the continent, much of which is important far beyond the respective regions. In this Viewpoint, nine researchers from seven different countries introduce what they see as the most pressing research in their field and region, discuss open questions and propose ways forward to translate this research into climate action.

Shuaib Lwasa: opportunities to achieve equitable urban transitions in Africa

Urbanization is fast progressing in the Global South, requiring new solutions for infrastructure, services, industrial development and land and energy use for these regions. In this context, fast-growing cities in Africa can take on a leadership role in driving climate change mitigation and adaptation, disaster risk reduction and sustainable development.

Cities in Africa and elsewhere in the Global South continue to grapple with the challenge of delivering equitable services, infrastructure, housing and action to respond to climate change extremes and disasters. One well-known problem is a mismatch between the pace of urban growth and the slower development of basic services and critical infrastructure. This results in, for example, deficient sanitation, water supply systems and localized waste management for large parts of the population, which in turn contribute substantially to heightened poverty and inequality. For inclusive, equitable, prosperous and climate-resilient cities, urban management needs to integrate low-income communities into the urban economy by ensuring access to water, sanitation, energy transition, waste management, poverty reduction and by improving resilience through innovative solutions.

Such an equitable urban transition requires changes in the urban infrastructure, and land and energy use, as well as water and ecosystem management. The key research question in this field is to find ways to ensure city-wide access to infrastructure and services, while minimizing emissions and resource use, and building resilience to climate change impacts. In this regard, cities in the Global South and Africa in particular can serve as examples for other parts of the world as they have the potential to adopt disruptive, innovative yet practical solutions to low emissions, resource minimization and resilience building.

For example, rapid urbanization creates the opportunity to develop economic structures in African cities that strongly integrate waste by promoting recovery, recycling, re-use and repair for lengthening lifecycles. Such a circular economy can create business opportunities, while also reducing resource use, thus creating a pathway for sustainable development. Another potential solution is hybrid systems for urban water management that are off-grid and utilize multiple water sources and treatment but that can also connect to centralized water systems. Business models for micro-to-medium enterprises have the potential to integrate some of the low-income groups through these kinds of technology and building social resilience.

These examples are part of a broader assessment of urban infrastructure innovations, their disruption of centralized systems and rethinking of urban form for more compact, walkable, co-located land use for low carbon intensity towards net-zero cities. However, to translate research on these new solutions into action, a shift is necessary in the planning, governing and managing of cities so as to allow for opportunities for leapfrogging to emerge and expand the possibilities of urban development for inclusive and resilient African cities.

Mary Mbenge: smallholder farmers in a changing climate

Climate change is already affecting crop yields and livestock production in many farming communities. One potential response to increasing vulnerability is adopting climate-smart agriculture practices, which the Food and Agriculture Organization defines as “an approach that leads to increase in agricultural productivity, building resilience to climate change and reduces greenhouse gas emissions where possible.” Adopting climate-smart agriculture practices is a possible solution, but it is challenging for smallholder farmers, as the complexity of their livelihoods, high-risk aversion and social embedment need to be considered.

When focusing on Kenya, agriculture is mainly characterized by smallholder farmers who own up to a few hectares, use minimal mechanization and inputs, and live at or near subsistence. In Makueni County, the communities that are made up predominantly of Kamba and Maasai mainly farm crops and keep livestock on the same plot due to limited space. By contrast, farmers in the Rift Valley grow cash crops such as tea and coffee on large tracts of land.

In Makueni County, many farmers combine crop production and animal husbandry with craft-making, seasonal trade and migration in search of wage jobs, an income diversification that makes them more resilient to climate risks. In addition, smallholder farmers also tend to be highly risk-averse, as they often only have limited resources to respond to stresses such as failed rains and prolonged dry spells.

Smallholder agriculture is deeply socially embedded and is about much more than the mere production of food. For example, in Makueni County, the people in villages mobilize a group of local community members to help single-headed households with land preparation and harvesting at times of oncoming rains. For water projects, the community joins in to offer local materials such as sand, stones and labour to construct sand dams and earth pans. The diversified and networked nature of their livelihoods is an effective risk management strategy. Still, it can directly connect distant shocks to local agricultural and livelihood systems, as seen during the food price spikes in 2008.

Smallholder agriculture, as an aspect of rural livelihoods, serves to structure social orders at equitable scales from the household to the ethnic group and encompasses various roles and responsibilities in a family, community and broader society. These roles and responsibilities are often quite durable as they are passed along generations and shape decisions about climate-smart practices. When a farmer restores land with terraces, the neighbours and subsequent inheritors must continue this tradition lest they risk losing soil to the erratic rains caused by climate change.

As these examples show, the diverse and networked practices of smallholder farmers serve a multitude of functions in their communities. Therefore, it is crucial that any attempt to promote climate-smart agriculture practices identifies and honours these realities of farmers’ livelihoods if a long-term, sustained adoption of a modified approach to agriculture is to be achieved.

Box 1 The contributors

Maha Al-Zu’bi is a researcher of Agriculture Water Solutions at the International Water Management Institute in Cairo, Egypt. Currently, she is co-leading the CGIAR Regional Integrated Initiative ‘From Fragility to Resilience in Central and West Asia and North Africa’. Her research focuses on integrated land, water, energy and food systems and systematic innovative climate actions.

Sintayehu W. Dejene is an Associate Professor of Production Ecology and Resource Conservation and Training and Research Head at Africa Center of Excellence in Climate Smart Agriculture and Biodiversity Conservation (ACE Climate SABC) of Haramaya University, Ethiopia. He works in the areas of natural resources and climate change including pastoralism, biodiversity management, ecosystem services, carbon sequestration and sustainable land management in the changing environment.

Jean Hounkpè is the scientific coordinator of the doctoral research programme on climate change and water resources at the National Water Institute of the University of Abomey Calavi, Benin Republic, as part of the West African Science Service Center on Climate Change and Adapted Land Use (WASCAL). His research interests include flood risk assessment and forecasting through statistical and hydrological modelling in the context of climate change.

Olga Laiza Kupika is an Associate Professor in Natural Resources Management and currently the chairperson for the Department of Wildlife Ecology and Conservation at the School of Wildlife and Environmental Sciences at Chinhoyi University of Technology, Zimbabwe. Her research focuses on understanding the impacts of climate change on natural and human systems, climate change adaptation and mitigation, climate governance and climate resilience in tropical savannah environments.

Shuaib Lwasa is the founding coordinator of the Urban Action Lab at Makerere University in Kampala, Uganda, and a Professor of Urban Resilience and Global Development at the International Institute of Social Studies in The Hague, The Netherlands. He has worked extensively on interdisciplinary research on African cities. His research areas span urban mitigation, adaptation to climate change, urban environmental management, spatial planning and disaster risk reduction.

Mary Mbenge is currently working as the Chief Officer for Natural Resources, Environment, and Climate Change in Makueni County, Kenya. She provides strategic team leadership for development programmes and projects that promote local democracy to improve rural livelihoods, increase their resilience and reduce climate vulnerability. She provides strategic team leadership for development programmes and projects that promote local democracy to improve rural communities’ livelihoods and resilience and reduce climate vulnerability. She is currently pursuing a PhD in integrated management of water, soil and waste.

Caroline Mwongera is a senior scientist at the Alliance of Bioversity International and the International Center for Tropical Agriculture (CIAT) in Nairobi, Kenya. There, she leads the ‘Climate-Smart Agriculture Practices and Technologies’ programme of the ‘Accelerating Impacts of CGIAR Climate Research for Africa’ initiative. In her research, she focuses on promoting the wide-scale adoption of climate-smart agricultural practices in East Africa, evaluating the trade-offs and barriers.

Nadia S. Ouedraogo is an economist specializing in quantitative economics, macroeconomics, modelling, energy and climate change. She is currently an Economic Affairs Officer at the United Nations Economic Commission for Africa (UNECA). Her research expertise includes economic transformation, sustainable development, inclusive green growth, energy poverty, harnessing renewables and climate change mitigation policies.

N’Datchoh Evelyne Touré is a climate and air pollution research scientist at University Félix-Houphouët-Boigny in Abidjan, Côte d’Ivoire. Her research focuses on aerosols from natural and anthropogenic origins and their impacts on the regional climate system and human health over West Africa. In addition to this, she is also interested in climate change and the induced impacts on extreme event occurrences in West Africa.

Jean Hounkpè: challenges in investigating hydroclimatic extremes

Changes in hydroclimatic variables such as rainfall in response to greenhouse gas emissions have been detected with a good level of confidence in many parts of the world, but these changes remain uncertain over Africa. The main reason for this is that Africa has a less well-developed observation network than other continents. This problem is exacerbated by a huge and constant decline in the number of observation stations fully meeting the standards set by the World Meteorological Organization. The percentage of stations on the continent in line with these standards dropped from 57% in 2011 to 22% in 2019, due mainly to accessibility issues, conflicts and lack of investments, for example. This calls for urgent actions for maintaining and densifying existing networks in addition to using new observation technologies offered by remote sensing.

Another issue is the limited performance of climate models in reproducing observed hydroclimatic extremes, which has been widely demonstrated, even in data-rich areas. These limitations propagate in the projected hydroclimatic extremes by increasing the associated uncertainties. These uncertainties are even more important in regions such as Africa, where climate models do not agree on the directions in mean precipitation for most parts of the continent. Improving both short-term forecasting and medium- to long-term future projections of hydroclimatic extremes is one of the greatest challenges facing researchers in this field in Africa.

Focusing on West Africa, the region has been experiencing devastating flood events since 2000, following the great drought that started in the 1970s. For instance, the mean occurrence of floods per year in West Africa between 1966 and 1999 was 3, but this number rose to 12 per year between 2000 and 2017, with very high human and economic damages. In this context, it would be sensible to question whether the current scientific literature on this region provides solutions for mitigation and flood prevention efforts. With the changing climate, stationarity in hydroclimatic variables is dead and several publications in West Africa have confirmed this fact. This implies a need to revise the hydrological standards for building flood mitigation infrastructures. Apart from a regional initiative conducted by the World Meteorological Organization, research on the development of new hydrological standards is very rare in West Africa (which is also likely to be the case in other parts of the continent). It is, therefore, legitimate to call for further investigation on this aspect.

Another important aspect is that flood response in Africa is primarily a post-disaster response, despite the existence of several flood forecasting systems at the global, regional and national levels. Notwithstanding the uncertainties linked to flood forecasting, its effective consideration in the flood risk management cycle, to aid preparedness, would substantially reduce flood damages. Given that the cost of inaction might exceed the cost of taking early action, translating research outputs into action in Africa is crucially needed.

Nadia S. Ouedraogo: the potential of natural gas for a just energy transition

Despite being responsible for less than 5% of global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, Africa will definitely be part of the fight against climate change. Nonetheless, Africa cannot follow the same path towards clean energy as the rest of the world, and needs pragmatic solutions.

When compared with other regions of the world, Africa has by far the highest prevalence of energy deprivation. Today, nearly half of Africa’s population, or about 580 million people, lack access to electricity. Despite progress over recent decades, the COVID-19 pandemic has reversed the continent’s positive trend, increasing the lack of access by 2%. Furthermore, around 900 million people still lack access to clean cooking technologies and fuels. The switch from inefficient and polluting energy sources to more efficient options, which is required for climate change action, must take care to stimulate rather than hamper the region’s development.

Even though it also contributes to GHG emissions, natural gas can play an important role as a transitional fuel for the continent. Its use in power generation will allow African countries to phase out more polluting fuels such as heavy fuel oil, diesel or traditional biomass, while gradually incorporating more renewables in their energy systems. This combination of replacing old fuels and expanding renewables could limit the climate impact on the much-needed increase in energy access.

In terms of GHG emissions, macroeconomic-level modelling work shows that achieving universal access to energy using the same energy mix as in 2015 would only increase continental GHG emissions from 1,067 million metric tons of carbon (MtC) in 2020 to 1,827 MtC in 2040. Replacing currently used fuels by natural gas would reduce this relatively small increase further. In comparison, China’s current GHG emissions exceed 12,000 MtC, while those of the United States and the European Union exceed 5,000 MtC and 3,000 MtC, respectively.

These numbers show that natural gas can help to ensure energy access across the continent, with comparatively small impacts on global GHG emissions. They also show that despite the important role natural gas has in the energy transition in Africa, it cannot serve the same purpose in other regions, in particular the Global North, which currently has much higher emissions. An undifferentiated uptake of net-zero targets across all countries in Africa would therefore deny Africa the chance to use its own gas, thus compromising its potential for industrialization and development.

Many challenges exist, including sparse data in many regions, a lack of substantive international assistance and a reluctance of the global research community to acknowledge the role that gas can play for the continent. More efforts in evidence-based analysis and improved modelling work are needed to explore pathways of decarbonization for the continent, which is crucial to allow research to be translated into action for Africa’s shift towards more sustainable and climate-resilient development.

Sintayehu W. Dejene: linking crises in climate, biodiversity and ecosystem services

Africa is immensely rich in biodiversity and contains an estimated one-fifth of all known species of mammals, birds and plants, as well as one-sixth of reptile and amphibian species. The past decades highlight that climate change poses major threats to biodiversity, ecosystems and ecosystem services in Africa, with impacts expected to increase. Scenarios predict fast-paced extinction of species, loss of natural habitats and ecosystem services, and shifts in the distribution and abundance of species during the twenty-first century. For example, climate change affects the distribution of the endemic Ethiopian wolf ( Canis simensis ) and the African elephant ( Loxodonta africana ) by reducing the amount and availability of suitable habitats. Similarly, climate change induces habitat expansion of invasive species such as the shrub Prosopis juliflora , which suppresses the growth, availability and quality of palatable plant species.

Loss of biodiversity as a result of climate change can alter the structures and functions of African ecological systems. As a result, the provision of biodiversity-based ecosystem services, such as the supply of feed for livestock, is negatively affected, threatening the well-being of pastoral people that rely on these services. This is of particular concern in Africa, where local livelihoods often depend on goods and services provided directly by ecosystems. For instance, wild food plants are important for the diets of millions of people and contribute to food security, especially in rural and low-income communities, but the ranges of at least some of those species, for instance Combretum engleri , Euphorbia inermis , Grewia schinzii and Searsia horrida , are projected to decrease. What is called for in responding to these changes is less of the usual piecemeal approach and, instead, for people from different disciplines and regions to work together to increase the resilience of biodiversity and ecosystems that provide critical sustainable ecosystem services.

It is encouraging that researchers understand that incorporating the impacts caused by climate change is a critical aspect for sustainable development on the continent. Still, despite the expansion of data sources and research, many key questions related to climate change — in terms of biodiversity, ecosystems and ecosystem services — in Africa remain unanswered. Therefore, it remains unclear to what degree current and planned management strategies are able to reduce future climate impacts.

Furthermore, there is a paucity of research dealing with the interactions between different drivers of global change. So far, most studies have only focused on single aspects (mostly either climate change or habitat loss) and interactions are largely neglected in assessments under global change scenarios. We also have limited knowledge on the potential positive feedback effects of the current approaches to increase the resilience of biodiversity and ecosystems in the future. This means that increasingly deep and integrated multidisciplinary cooperation is both required and anticipated in the coming decades.

N’Datchoh Evelyne Touré: climate versus health impacts of aerosol mitigation in West Africa

Atmospheric aerosols are an important atmospheric component impacting the climate in many regions, including West Africa. For example, natural aerosols such as dust from the Sahara and Sahel region have been found to interact with the West African Monsoon system, weakening its penetration over land while also cooling surface temperatures. Besides these natural aerosols, West Africa is also characterized by large emissions of anthropogenic air pollutants from sources such as solid fuel used for cooking, charcoal making, traffic, open waste burning and flaring. These particles can interact with local weather systems, for example by being transported by the atmospheric circulation to remote places or by impacting precipitation.

The current rapid urbanization growth in Africa is associated with a substantial increase in anthropogenic aerosol emissions of more than 80% between 1990 and 2015. This increasing trend in anthropogenic aerosol emissions is projected to continue if no measures and policies are put in place.

Besides their impacts on climate, atmospheric aerosols have substantial health impacts. This is particularly true in heavily polluted regions, such as the dust source regions and cities. The lack of access to clean energy for cooking is an additional cause for health burdens, disproportionally affecting women and children. As such, Africa is not only vulnerable to changing rainfall patterns, rising temperatures and increasing extreme weather events due to climate change, but also to air pollution effects, causing more than a million deaths per year.

As aerosols are transported to remote regions and affect larger weather systems, their effects on air quality and climate need to be assessed at both local and regional scales. One factor slowing this multiscale understanding is that air quality measurement and monitoring networks are still sparse across much of Africa. The current use of low-cost devices that are easy to install and maintain offers a good opportunity to collect more data and information about air quality and atmospheric aerosols to better understand their impacts.

Some studies comparing the health benefits of reducing aerosols against their cooling effect on climate underlined that the health benefits of reducing aerosol pollution outweighed the health benefits of aerosol cooling in East Asia, North America and Europe. Such studies are still lacking in Africa, even as countries are gradually implementing air quality policies such as fuel quality improvements or regulation of imported, used-vehicle ages. Better understanding ways to reduce air pollution and the effects this has on atmosphere dynamics will therefore be crucial, especially in West Africa, a region where populations are already struggling to adapt to climate change.

Olga Laiza Kupika: building resilient landscapes in semi-arid savannahs

Scientific evidence has proved beyond doubt that the climate is changing; we have a climate crisis that calls for emergency responses. One change that is particularly drastic in semi-arid savannahs is biodiversity and ecosystem services loss. In developing sustainable climate solutions, the most important question is: what are the best adaptation and mitigation actions that promote ecosystem recovery and resilience, while also balancing the need for society to accrue benefits from ecosystem services, and vice versa? To answer this, it is important to understand the key role of local ecological knowledge.

Efforts have been made to promote home-grown solutions with regard to climate research in Africa through availing grants and funding targeting climate research for development. Translating research into practice in the Global South is largely limited due to the lack of a framework for proper engagement and coordination between researchers and stakeholders in the community development space. One of the major challenges is the lack of coordination and networking among climate researchers in the Global South. This is linked to the lack of financing available to develop climate centres of excellence dedicated to capacity building and training towards locally driven research for home-grown solutions. Such centres can help to foster multi- and interdisciplinary studies, track climate initiatives and keep a record of databases.

Databases would provide baseline data to further understand and monitor factors influencing the complexity, diversity and abundance of vulnerable species and habitats in tropical savannah landscapes. For example, the phenology of Sclerocarya birrea (marula) and Gonimbrasia belina (mopane worms) is threatened by frequent drought. As these species have a high socioeconomic value, for example as livelihood-linked protein sources, this vulnerability requires close monitoring.

Advancing climate resilience in the Global South is also hindered by a lack of finance to support smart innovative technologies and to promote technology transfer, particularly transformational agro-ecological solutions. Participatory research recognizes the importance of local ecological knowledge, and this coupled with conventional science is critical to addressing the climate crisis impacting vulnerable communities. For instance, Indigenous people living on the edge of Gonarezhou National Park in southeastern Zimbabwe possess vast knowledge on medicinal plants that could be harnessed to promote agro-value chains for climate resilience. Similarly, promoting local knowledge on sustainable harvesting, conservation status and the utilization of edible riparian-based plant species is key to promoting drought resilience.

Still, current research programmes are carried out within a limited time period and funding, which does not allow for further engagement of vulnerable communities to allow the co-generation and co-development of research findings into practical solutions.

Providing scientific evidence on biophysical impacts of climate change is critical to ensure the sustainability of practical innovative solutions, thereby fostering resilience and recovery of ecosystems. Boosting funding and creating synergies between all actors — especially private players and development partners in the biodiversity conservation sector — is vital to translate research findings into community development programmes for resilience building.

Caroline Mwongera: climate adaptation progress and gaps in agriculture

The past two decades have seen an increasing interest in scaling-up climate adaptation to address the persistent and costly effects of climate change on cropland, livestock, forests and fisheries. The Sustainable Development Goals and the Paris Agreement have further heightened the urgency for holistic and integrated efforts to coordinate climate adaptation and transition to climate-resilient development in agriculture. The Paris Agreement establishes the global goal for adaptation by enhancing adaptive capacity, strengthening resilience and reducing vulnerability to climate change.

African countries recognize the critical role agriculture plays in the global response to climate change. A common agenda is emphasized in various Africa-wide policies, including the 2014 Malabo Declaration, the African Green Stimulus Programme (2022), the African Union Climate Change and Resilient Development Strategy and Action Plan (2022–2032) and the African Union Agenda 2063. These policies underscore the need for the systematic integration of climate change responses into the planning and development of sustainable agricultural and food systems, mainstreaming climate and agricultural policies, strengthening institutional coordination mechanisms for robust monitoring and evaluation systems, and making communities climate resilient. In preparation for COP 27, the United Nations Office of the Special Adviser on Africa is advocating for an integrated approach to energy access and agriculture value chains and building climate adaptation through investments in agriculture-enabling infrastructure to minimize loss.

Climate adaptation efforts in Africa have made meaningful progress. The Consortium of International Agricultural Research Centers (CGIAR) Research Program on Climate Change, Agriculture, and Food Security and partners have developed tools and methodologies to identify context-specific climate challenges, identify and prioritize concrete actions, and evaluate lessons, successes and progress. Meanwhile, the Accelerating the Impact of CGIAR Climate Research for Africa (AICCRA) project enhances access to climate information services and validates climate-smart agriculture technologies in Africa. AICCRA’s gendered outreach is bridging the gap in targeting and reaching women with customized climate adaptation technologies that address their interests. But with climate hazards increasing in frequency and intensity, adaptation responses are still limited. The CGIAR estimates that transforming food systems to thrive under climate change will need US$262 billion investment every year in sub-Saharan Africa, with the cost of inaction being far higher.

Adaptation action that corresponds to unfolding climate impacts and associated means of implementation founded on practical and comparable knowledge can help African countries work through the complexity of climate adaptation. In the process, there is a need to determine how best to scale-up approaches to improve targeting and effectiveness of adaptation finance (to support capacity building) and technology transfer (to support local communities to adapt). From a research perspective, approaches are needed to determine whether current climate adaptation responses are adequate and to further evaluate the conditions under which climate adaptation technologies can create positive or negative outcomes in agriculture and food systems.

Maha Al-Zu’bi: translating interdisciplinary research to scaled-up climate action

The Middle East and North Africa (MENA) is a climate change hotspot and a ‘fragile’ region for natural resources, where ensuring the sustainable planning and utilization of resources, particularly water and land, is critical. The region is characterized by a scarce and uneven distribution of resources and a growing demand, making it particularly susceptible to water, energy and food insecurities. Many of these challenges are intensified by the projected impacts of climate change.

It is critical to systematically investigate and understand the underlying interactions between natural resources management strategies and climate actions in the MENA region in order to contribute to more integrated policies, well-informed decisions and investment strategies, and resilient natural resources plans.

As a complex policy and governance problem, climate change in MENA cannot be tackled effectively by using traditional approaches. The complexity lies in the details and interactions among internal and external causal factors, social interactions, conflicting objectives and disagreements over the appropriate solutions. In addition, the perspectives of multiple organizations, stakeholders and end users are essential to ensure co-design and effective delivery of sustainable solutions. In the case of MENA, interdisciplinary research is therefore urgently needed to scale-up climate action.

In this spirit, a recently launched Consortium of International Agricultural Research Centers (CGIAR) Regional Integrated Initiative ‘From Fragility to Resilience in Central West Asia and North Africa’ entails a participatory and holistic approach to harness science-based solutions and to provide options for climate adaptation and mitigation that respond to the calls of, and are effective for, smallholder farmers in the region to scale-up the best solutions. This initiative is collaborating with cross-scale partners to test and upscale various climate-related innovations. These include nature-based solutions, resilient food and feed crops, weather-station-based irrigation advisory systems, scale-appropriate mechanization for dryland and irrigated systems, and farm-to-basin smart tools for water efficiency and management.

This CGIAR initiative that I am co-leading aims to overcome the challenges associated with scaling-up climate action through establishing and/or strengthening a national alliance of stakeholders, national innovation platforms, gender and youth accommodative and transformative research, innovation start-ups, digital tools and capacity building programmes. In the future, we hope to see more interdisciplinary initiatives like this one that will enable a better translation of research findings into climate actions in the MENA region.

Acknowledgements

The views and opinions expressed by N.S.O. are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of the United Nations Economic Commission for Africa.

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Maha Al-Zu’bi

Africa Center of Excellence for Climate Smart Agriculture and Biodiversity Conservation, Haramaya University, Haramaya, Ethiopia

Sintayehu W. Dejene

Institut National de l’Eau, Université d’Abomey-Calavi, Abomey-Calavi, Benin

Jean Hounkpè

Department of Wildlife Ecology and Conservation, School of Wildlife and Environmental Sciences, Chinhoyi University of Technology, Chinhoyi, Zimbabwe

Olga Laiza Kupika

Urban Action Lab Makerere University, Kampala, Uganda

Shuaib Lwasa

International Institute of Social Studies, The Hague, The Netherlands

Chief Officer for Natural Resources, Environment and Climate Change in Makueni County, Wote, Kenya

Mary Mbenge

International Center for Tropical Agriculture, Nairobi, Kenya

Caroline Mwongera

United Nations Economic Commission for Africa, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia

Nadia S. Ouedraogo

LASMES, UFR SSMT, University Félix-Houphouët-Boigny, Abidjan, Côte d’Ivoire

N’ Datchoh Evelyne Touré

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Correspondence to Maha Al-Zu’bi , Sintayehu W. Dejene , Jean Hounkpè , Olga Laiza Kupika , Shuaib Lwasa , Mary Mbenge , Caroline Mwongera , Nadia S. Ouedraogo or N’ Datchoh Evelyne Touré .

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Al-Zu’bi, M., Dejene, S.W., Hounkpè, J. et al. African perspectives on climate change research. Nat. Clim. Chang. 12 , 1078–1084 (2022). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-022-01519-x

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Review article, an overview of climate change adaptation and mitigation research in africa.

• 1 Department of Geology, Mining and Environmental Science, University of Bamenda, Bamenda, Cameroon
• 2 Graduate School of Humanities and Social Science and Network for Education and Research on Peace and Sustainability, Hiroshima University, Hiroshima, Japan
• 3 Institute for Sustainable Futures, University of Technology Sydney, Sydney, NSW, Australia
• 4 Department of Geogrpahy and Planning, University of Bamenda, Bamenda, Cameroon
• 5 Pan-African University Life and Earth Science Institute (PAULESI), University of Ibanda, Ibadan, Nigeria

Research on climate change has increased significantly since the 1970s. There has also been a particular focus on Africa, given its vulnerability to climate change impacts and its urbanization trends that may have massive implications for climate change adaptation and mitigation. Despite the wealth of publications on climate change in Africa, there is a lack of review studies that highlight the overall research landscape. If this status of climate research is clarified, African countries can better deal with climate change. Hence, this paper aims to improve our understanding of the status and trends of research on climate change adaptation and mitigation in Africa. Our review, straddling from 1990 to late 2021, recognizes the foundations that underpin climate change adaptation and mitigation literature. Based on keywords associated with Africa's climate change adaptation and mitigation, we undertook bibliometric research by collecting 3,316 related SCI/SSCI articles. In addition, we provided a thematic evolution over three decades, compartmentalized into four sub-periods (1990–2007; 2008–2014; 2015–2019; 2020–2021). Priority research topics and themes have been dynamic over time, with some core concepts receiving more attention (vulnerability, food, water, and energy security). Although the number of published articles exhibited a rapidly growing trend, their distribution is extremely uneven. Articles were mainly published by institutions from certain parts of the continent, with the University of Cape Town, making the highest contribution. About 72% of the existing studies focused on climate change adaptation, while climate change mitigation was less represented with 22%. The results also showed that researchers have examined not all African countries. South Africa, Ethiopia, and Ghana are hot spots, while most countries are largely neglected. Africa and African countries need to improve their future research ability on climate change mitigation. Assessing climate change risks and measures in African countries should be prioritized.

Introduction

Climate change is a threat to humanity. Global CO 2 emissions have increased considerably from 14.9 billion metric tons in 1970 to 36.4 billion metric tons in 2021 1 . Consequently, atmospheric concentration of CO 2 emissions has increased from 325 ppm to 414 ppm over the same period. Africa, like other continents, is vulnerable, and exposed to extreme climate events ( Busby et al., 2014 ; Russo et al., 2016 ). Vulnerability is exacerbated by the continent's low adaptive capacity and its dependence on rain-fed agriculture ( Dzoga et al., 2018 ; Apraku et al., 2021 ; Azadi et al., 2021 ).

Temperatures have been reported to be increasing in Africa. North Africa's temperature has been increasing between 0.2°C per decade and 0.4°C since the 1970s ( Donat et al., 2014 ; Lelieveld et al., 2016 ). Meanwhile, in West Africa, temperatures have undergone positive trends of 0.28°C ( Russo et al., 2016 ; Nikiema et al., 2017 ). Temperature intensity has increased from 0.25 to 1.8°C in the Sahel and West Africa ( Vizy and Cook, 2012 ; Fotso-Nguemo et al., 2017 ; Iyakaremye et al., 2021 ). According to literature, South Africa has the highest projected increase ( Engelbrecht et al., 2015 ; Moron et al., 2016 ; Hoegh-Guldberg et al., 2018 ). Frequent temperature increases affect arable land and reduce the production of many African crops ( Berck et al., 2018 ; Mumo et al., 2018 ).

Annual rainfall in Africa has also varied between regions. North Africa has witnessed negative trends in precipitation ( Tramblay et al., 2013 ; Hertig et al., 2014 ). Declining trends have also been observed in West Africa ( Nicholson et al., 2018 ), but East and Southern Africa are experiencing high precipitation ( Liebmann et al., 2014 ; Nicholson, 2017 ; Nikulin et al., 2018 ). The overall outcome is a negative trend in Africa's rainfall, which negatively impacts the environment, livelihoods, food, water, and energy security ( Akinsanola et al., 2021 ). Approximately, US$ 1.4 billion annually on food crops across Africa has been lost ( Sileshi and Gebeyehu, 2021 ). Aggregate annual production losses of 8.9% have been reported, translating to 2.3 million MT of wheat lost, affecting 48.2 million consumers across Africa ( Sileshi and Gebeyehu, 2021 ). About 57% of arable land in Africa produces fewer crops, resulting in poverty, affecting about 40% of the population ( Berck et al., 2018 ). About 25% reduction has been reported in East Africa's annual crop yields ( Mumo et al., 2018 ). By 2023, $1.4trillion of Africa's GDP will be vulnerable to climate change, a significant 48% of the entire continent's GDP ( Sileshi et al., 2019 ).

Economic growth and rapid urbanization have been evident in Africa. Some countries have recorded increasing economic growth, like Rwanda (8.7%), Ethiopia and Côte d'Ivoire (7.4%), Ghana (7.1%), Tanzania (6.8%), and Benin (6.7%) ( Tenaw and Hawitibo, 2021 ). Africa's urbanization rate increased from 30.8 to 38.8% between 2000 and 2018, with a 2.2% economic growth ( Nathaniel and Adeleye, 2021 ). Seventy-nine African cities are amongst the world's top 100 fast-growing cities and face extreme risks due to climate change ( Weforum, 2021 ). An increase in economic growth and urbanization translates to high energy demand and GHG emissions. Africa is also characterized by its rapid demographic change. Countries like Tanzania, Nigeria, Ethiopia, and Angola have registered annual population growth rates of 4.8, 4.5, 4.3, and 3.7%, respectively ( Weforum, 2021 ). Population explosion has increased CO 2 emission from 399,239Kw in 1990 to 823,424Kt in 2018 ( Worldbank, 2022 ). In 2019, South Africa was the most polluting country, having emitted 479 billion metric tons of CO 2 emissions, followed by Egypt with 247 billion metric tons of CO 2 emissions ( Saleh, 2021 ). Countries like Nigeria, Algeria, Libya, and Morocco are other large producers of CO 2 (≥10 Mt/year) ( Boden et al., 2017 ; Habimana Simbi et al., 2021 ). Rapid economic growth and population lead to the fast growth of CO 2 emissions and environmental degradation in many African countries. This showcases the role of Africa in global climate change during its socioeconomic transformation. Therefore, policymakers must focus more on adaptation and mitigation strategies to curtail the impacts of climate change on the continent.

There has been a rapidly increasing number of reviews on climate change in Africa. Akinyi et al., look at the trade-offs and synergies related to implementing climate adaptation strategies among farmers ( Akinyi et al., 2021 ). There have been studies on the impacts of climate change on water resources ( Nkhonjera, 2017 ; Leal Filho et al., 2022a ), with a consensus that adaptation and mitigation measures are necessary to cut the impacts on water resources. A study by ( Zinyengere et al., 2013 ) projects an 18% decline in maize yields and suggests adaptation could potentially moderate the negative impacts of climate change. Nyiwul (2021) , examined if the needs of the poor somehow influence adaptation and mitigation policies and states. In addition to review studies, many research papers on climate change in Africa have been published ( Steynor et al., 2020 ; North et al., 2022 ). This significant increase in publications makes it challenging for climate change researchers to maintain an up-to-date overview of the literature. Therefore, it is imperative to obtain a full overview of climate change mitigation and adaptation research in Africa for intellectual and political reasons.

Bibliometrics stands as one of the powerful quantitative methods that can be used to analyze the development of scientific literature in a research field like climate change ( De Bakker et al., 2005 ; Hirsch, 2005 ; Sharifi et al., 2021 ). Bibliometric methods and tools can be used to trace the intellectual landscape of climate change across the globe ( Li et al., 2011 ). Several bibliometric analyses of climate change studies have been conducted. For instance, a bibliometric analysis of climate change adaption has been done, and results show that the US ranks first in terms of publication output ( Wang et al., 2018 ). Climate change vulnerability has been explored using quantitative analysis showing that food insecurity is one of the most frequently discussed areas in climate vulnerability research ( Wang et al., 2014 ). In 2015, research hotspots and models in climate policy were reviewed using a bibliometric method ( Wei et al., 2015 ). The interrelationship between resilience, adaptation, and vulnerability in the face of changing climate has been researched by Janssen et al. (2006) . There have also been studies on the impacts of global warming on tea production using a bibliometric analysis ( Marx et al., 2017 ). A study that has come so close to the present is the study of climate change in the belt and road initiative regions ( Tan et al., 2021 ) where the authors elaborated on the status and trends of climate change research in the Belt and Road Initiative regions of Central Asia, Russia and Europe Other studies have focused on climate change mitigation, adaptation, and resilience ( Einecker and Kirby, 2020 ), and mapped urban sustainability and its links to climate change mitigation and adaptation ( Sharifi, 2021 ; Sharifi et al., 2021 ).

Thus, there are more than a few previous bibliometric studies with comprehensive analyses of climate change. However, to the best of our knowledge, there are rare, if not none, on climate change adaptation and mitigation in Africa. As Africa is highly vulnerable to climate change, a clearer picture of climate change adaptation and mitigation research is of practical significance to the intellectual community. Therefore, this study aims to review Africa's research status and trends on climate change adaptation and mitigation. This review addresses the following questions: What are the growth trends in research on climate change adaptation and mitigation in Africa? Which authors and documents in the literature on climate change adaptation and mitigation have had the greatest impact on citation in the past 30 years? What is the intellectual structure of the knowledge base on climate change adaptation and mitigation in Africa, and how has the research on this topic evolved? This overview is one of the first attempts to quantify the growth of climate change adaptation and mitigation science literature in the African continent. It should be noted that, unlike systematic reviews, this bibliometric review does not intend to provide details on different issues related to the study topic. Instead, it provides an overview of the state of the knowledge and highlights the related structures and trends.

The paper is organized as follows: Section Methodology describes the methodology, clearly explaining the parameters used in searching articles. Section Results and discussions outlines the results and discussions. Lastly, potential new areas that are likely to influence the field of climate change in Africa are investigated in the final section.

Methodology

Literature search and selection were conducted following the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis Protocols (PRISMA) ( Moher et al., 2010 ). To retrieve documents related to two major themes, “Climate Change Adaptation” and “Climate Change Mitigation” a combination of keywords was used to build the search string (see the Supplementary material ). The theme of climate change adaptation referred to keywords such as adaptation, resilience, risk, management, and reduction. In contrast, the theme of climate mitigation involved keywords such as decarbonization, mitigation, carbon, CO 2 , and GHGs. Synonyms were taken into consideration. All countries in Africa were included in the search string. The search was further performed in the three fields of titles, abstracts, and keywords for a more comprehensive data retrieval. The start time of the search was 1990, and the end time was 2021. The search returned 3,958 documents in formats compatible with the VOSviewer software. The eligibility criteria included the following: (1) articles on adaptation and mitigation studies in Africa and or any African country; (2) Peer-reviewed empirical, primary research papers in academic journals, books or book chapters, or conference proceedings (3), papers pubished in English. The next step was the manual screening of the documents to exclude irrelevant ones. After exclusion, we retained 3,235 articles.

The following bibliometric databases were searched on November 15, 2021: Science Citation Index (SCI), Social Sciences Citation Index (SSCI), SCI-EXPANDED, Arts and Humanities Citation Index (A&HCI), and (Emerging Sources Science Citation Index (ESCI) in the Web of Science Core Collection of Clarivate Analytics, Canada. Vosviewer, which is a freely available Javan application, was used for data analysis ( van Eck and Waltman, 2010 ) (VOSviewer at: https://www.vosviewer.com ).

Text mining and bibliometric analysis

Bibliometric analysis was then conducted on related articles, and Vosviewer was used for data analysis. Among the different analyses used were the term co-occurrence analysis, bibliographic coupling, and co-citation analysis. For the term co-occurrence analysis, documents were set as the unit of analysis, while cited references, cited sources, and cited authors as units of analysis for co-citation analysis. Bibliometric coupling was also analyzed. This was done by using the full counting method, and organizations and countries were used as units of analysis.

To highlight major thematic areas, term co-occurrence analysis was used. This kind of analysis presents terms that have co-occurred frequently and are strongly connected to each other. A thesaurus file was developed and added to the VOSviewer database prior to analysis. The reason is because some terms have different variants and can easily result in separate counting of synonyms; for example, Green House Gases and GHGs. The outputs of bibliometric analysis using VOSviewer are graphs (combination of nodes and links). The size of the nodes in the outputs is proportional to the occurrence frequency, and the width of the links connecting nodes is proportional to the strength of connections. Terms that co-occur more frequently form clusters that show different thematic areas. In addition to bibliometric analysis, content analysis of the abstracts was done to determine the studies' geographic focus (country level).

To map the thematic transition over time, we divided the study period into four subperiods (1990–2007, 2007–2014, 2015–2019, and after 2020). It should be noted that 2007 and 2014 were selected as milestones considering that releases of the IPCC reports in these years might have triggered climate change research in Africa. It was possible to include sub-periods before 1990, but, as can be seen from the results in section Results and discussions, less research was published until 1990, not warranting further sub-periods. To understand the thematic shift during each period, term co-occurrence analyses were conducted for each sub-period.

Results and discussions

The growth trends of climate change adaptation and mitigation literature were examined from the initial starting point of 1990. Figure 1 shows the total number of publications in the different time periods. It displays how climate change research in Africa has increased steadily across the three decades. The results show that the number of articles in this field has progressed through four stages: slow growth, rapid growth, explosive growth, and steady growth, with an average growth rate of 21%. During the first period (1990–2007), the number of articles was very small and growing slowly. More so, the publication volume within the years of this period was not very much different, indicating the very low volume of exploration. The second period corresponds to 2008–2014. In this period, an overall upward trend was observed, indicating an attraction of extensive attention from scholars worldwide, thus entering a period of expansion and promotion. In the third period (2015–2019), the number of articles significantly increased, especially after the publication of the fifth IPPC assessment report, indicating a highly productive period. The fourth and last period, 2020-2021, shows rapid growth, with 947 articles published in <2 years. The number of publications in the four study periods was 118, 684, 1,487, and 947, respectively. There is a significant increase in the growth of publications per year, with an annual average increase of 22.5%. It is evident that this is a young field as fewer papers were published from 1990 to 2007 compared to papers published from 2020 to November 2021. In fact, only 117 publications were made from 1990 to 2017, indicating the low relevance of the topic during this period compared to 947 publications for <2 years (2020–2021), indicating the current high relevance of the topic. The very slow growth in the first period was due to the limited theoretical understanding, while the significant increase in the subsequent periods could be attributed to general causes such as digital publication, the birth of new journals, and specific factors such as the release of the two IPCC assessment reports (fourth and fifth reports in 2007 and 2014, respectively). An implication is that climate change in Africa and its impacts are increasingly recognized together with the increasing significance of climate change adaptation and mitigation to curb these impacts.

Figure 1 . The number of articles published per year and the different periods considered in this research.

Out of the 3,317 articles that were used in the analysis, the country focus was not uniform over Africa. There were 380 papers focused on South Africa alone. The second focus country was Ethiopia, with 301 ( Figure 2 ). In West Africa, only Ghana has a high research focus with 242 articles, higher than Kenya and Tanzania. Surprisingly, the most populous nation, Nigeria, is not among the countries with a large number of publications. The high research focus on South Africa is likely because the universities in the country are among the leading organization in this field. For over three decades, African countries have received relatively low research focus. More research was done on Africa as a continent or on African regions than on specific countries. A total of 1,219 studies were focused on Africa and its sub-regions, excluding specific countries. Countries like Gabon, Libya, Eritrea, Chad, Central African Republic have so far had no research on climate change adaptation and mitigation ( Figure 2 ). However, the ascending curve reveals, even if empirically, these numbers will continue to grow considerably, given the theme's relevance.

Figure 2 . Geographical presentation of country focus.

Looking at the thematic focus, 72% of the articles are on adaptation, 22% on mitigation, and 6% on both adaptation and mitigation. It, therefore, deserves attention that mitigation efforts are limited. We were also interested in knowing who the leading researchers in the continent were (in other words, authors that have published more papers on the topic). We noticed that researchers from the USA authored more publications ( N = 718; 10%), followed by researchers from South Africa ( N = 660; 9%), the United Kingdom ( N = 554; 8%), Germany ( N = 420; 6%), and Kenya ( N = 343; 5%) ( Figure 3 ). Researchers belonging to institutes based in Africa published 38.7%, while those from the West (America, Canada, Europe, and Australia) published 49%. The rest of the world (China, Indonesia, etc.) published 12.3%. Of the 54 African countries, 11% have not published anything on climate change adaptation and mitigation, 64% have carried out <100 case studies on their countries, while 9.2% have carried out above one hundred case studies in their countries. South Africa has the highest number of publications because of its well-developed science system that underpins climate change scenarios developed for South Africa. Authors based in England, South Africa, and Tanzania are those with the greatest focus on adaptation strategies. The works of Germany, the USA, and Kenya were mainly concentrated on food security, and those of Australia, Ethiopia, and China on carbon sequestration. However, a huge research gap exists on mitigation.

Figure 3 . Global research on climate change adaptation and mitigation in Africa (Publications by countries).

Regarding geographic focus, South Africa, Ethiopia and Ghana have received more attention ( Figure 2 ). In contrast, less attention has been paid to Tanzania, Kenya, and Nigeria. Also, no case studies were found on the Central African Republic, Somalia, Gabon, Ivory Coast, Libya etc ( Figure 2 ). Overall, it can be seen that climate change is poorly studied in the continent, and there is a gap in consideration of adaptation and mitigation policy designs.

Climate change is a global threat that can stress various sectors and deteriorate the sustainability of diverse sectors worldwide. Specifically, the vulnerability of the agricultural sector is globally concerning because of insufficient production and supplies. In effect, the global feeding patterns are challenged particularly in African countries where agriculture is an integral part of the economy. Therefore, mitigating the impacts of climate change is of great importance and requires global commitment.

The overall thematic focus of the literature on climate change adaptation and mitigation in africa

The overall thematic focus (1990–2021).

Based on the term co-occurrence analysis, there were four main clusters: blue, red, yellow, and green, each representing a different research focus. These clusters have been identified by the software based on the co-occurrence frequenct and the strength of connection between terms. The size of each node reflects the frequency of appearance. A term with a larger node, is a research hotspot. The thicker the line, the more frequently the terms have co-occurred. The co-occurrence analysis showcases that there has been more attention on vulnerability (blue), agriculture (red), forest management and sequestration (green), and sustainability and energy-related climate mitigation (yellow). It should be mentioned that what is discussed in the following sections is not exhaustive. While there could be other important issues related to climate change adaptation and mitigation, we have mainly focused on those key topics that were highlighted in the outputs of the bibliometric analysis.

The adaptation/vulnerability cluster (blue)

The blue cluster highlights the vulnerability of households and farmers due to climate variability and the poverty it has inflicted on communities. The literature on this cluster is centered on the vulnerability of Africa to climate change impacts. From the blue cluster, it is visible that researchers are interested in studying adaptation from the gender, household, indigenous knowledge, and livelihood perspectives that are considered to be important factors for vulnerability ( Jost et al., 2016 ; Flatø et al., 2017 ). The dominance of the terms climate variability, vulnerability, and resilience is not surprising, considering that a lot of research has been done on climate variability and the risks faced by farmers and smallholder farmers in Africa ( Bryan et al., 2009 ; Müller et al., 2011 ; Adenle et al., 2017 ; Siderius et al., 2021 ). For instance, cocoyam farmers in Nigeria face challenges adapting to climate ( Ifeanyi-Obi et al., 2017 ). Meanwhile, in Ghana, maize productivity has been affected by changes in climate ( Aidoo et al., 2021 ). This has further warranted research on the vulnerability of households and how resilient they are to climate change. Gezimua ( Gezimua, 2021 ) examined the prevalence of household food insecurity and vulnerability to climate change in East Africa and showed that households' adaptive capacity plays a significant role in reducing the prevalence of food insecurity ( Gezimua, 2021 ). Researchers have preferred to study vulnerability and resilience from an adaptative perspective, as seen in Figure 4 . Nyboer et al. (2019) presented a climate change vulnerability assessment of 85% of Africa's freshwater fishes. They concluded that vulnerable species are found in the African Rift Valley lakes, the Congo River drainage, and the coastal rivers of West Africa ( Nyboer et al., 2019 ). A study on the degree of vulnerability and its impacts on human health in Central Africa showed that, the mean monthly household cooling energy demand is expected to significantly increase by 2,046, resulting in major energy security issues ( Nematchoua et al., 2019 ). There have also been studies of vulnerability at different levels. Vulnerability has been more researched from the perspective of gender perception ( Descheemaeker et al., 2016 ; Tesfaye et al., 2019 ). For instance, changes in temperature characteristics were highly perceived among female farmers in Ghana ( Appiah and Guodaar, 2021 ). Another study done in Ghana found that there were gender-specific differences in the use of some adaptation practices ( Jamal et al., 2021 ). Another term that stands out is poverty, indicating how researchers are interested in knowing if poverty is contributing to vulnerability and if poorer households are prioritized for interventions that increase adaptive capacity ( Williams et al., 2019 ).

Figure 4 . The output of the term co-occurrence analysis for the whole study period (1990–2021).

From this cluster, we see how local and international scholars investigate how communities' efforts and changes in livelihood can display different degrees of resilience by employing different strategies. African communities are resilient to climate change through their attitudinal shifts and local technology innovations to better curb the impacts of climate change ( Simpson et al., 2019 ). Communities build on their perceptions about past practices, skills, and knowledge to build adaptive capacity and resilience to suit their current life ( Gandure et al., 2013 ; Perez et al., 2015 ; Elum et al., 2017 ; Talanow et al., 2021 ). Climate resilience is improved by incorporating gender perspectives ( Perez et al., 2015 ; Adzawla et al., 2019a ).

In addition, barriers hindering successful adaptation strategies were an area of consideration ( Murkowski, 2000 ; Betsill and Bulkeley, 2007 ). Some of the barriers that have been hindering adaptation strategies are limited financial resources, government structures, and challenges with capacity development. An issue that needs to be noticed is that despite the increasing concerns about extreme heat and its impacts on human health, related terms did not emerge from the term co-occurrence analysis. This indicates the lack of research on this issue as also highlighted in other studies ( Harrington and Otto, 2020 ; Ncongwane et al., 2021 ). More research on the adaptation to extreme heat in the context of Africa is, therefore, needed.

The food security cluster (red)

This cluster showcases the interest in understanding climate change's general impacts on food security. From Figure 4 , most of the research is on the impacts of climate change on agriculture and its contribution to food security ( Figure 4 ). The overwhelming concern of scientists is whether increased temperatures are impacting African agriculture and contributing to high levels of food insecurity ( Sultan, 2012 ; Connolly-Boutin and Smit, 2016 ; Douxchamps et al., 2016 ). There have also been studies on the uncertainty of climate impacts and the extent of their impacts on food security ( Ahmed, 2020 ; Mekonnen et al., 2021 ). The next concern from this cluster is the types of agricultural approaches used to increase food security. Conservation and smart agriculture are the main focus areas ( Branca et al., 2021 ; Thierfelder and Mhlanga, 2022 ). Another thematic focus that has attracted publication is models and simulation. Researchers are keen to develop and use different climate change models to predict temperature and rainfall trends and yield productivity to better understand how to address climate change challenges ( Jones et al., 2005 ; Araújo and Rahbek, 2006 ; Lobell and Burke, 2010 ; Semenov and Stratonovitch, 2010 ). Sub-Saharan Africa, particularly West and Southern Africa, have been the focused regions in this cluster ( Brown et al., 2009 ; Müller et al., 2011 ; Shindell et al., 2012 ).

The forestry and sequestration cluster (green)

Cluster green is centered around the concept of climate change mitigation ( Nyong et al., 2007 ; Syampungani et al., 2010 ; Tschora and Cherubini, 2020 ), which is focused on reducing GHGs emissions ( Friedrich and Trois, 2011 ; Tongwane et al., 2016 ; Tongwane and Moeletsi, 2018 ). There have also been studies on how climate change impacts ecosystem services ( Sintayehu, 2018 ). For instance, in Tanzania and Kenya, a key carbon sink, biomass has been reduced by 76% ( Wilson et al., 2021 ). Tuli-Karoo transboundary aquifer in Southern Africa has been studied to understand the interaction between groundwater ecosystems and climate change ( Majola et al., 2021 ). Furthermore, a considerable amount of mitigation research focuses on carbon sequestration ( Adetoye et al., 2018 ; Gonzalez-Sanchez et al., 2019 ), soil organic carbon ( Vågen et al., 2005 ; Swanepoel et al., 2016 ), REDD, and REDD+ ( Rahlao et al., 2012 ; Soliev et al., 2021 ). The Congo Basin, Cameroon, Madagascar, and Zambia are often the focus areas of such research that generate knowledge regarding the role of forests in climate change mitigation ( Somorin et al., 2012 ; Bele et al., 2015 ; Soazafy et al., 2021 ). Agricultural soils in Africa have been studied and found to generally have potential as a carbon sink ( Vågen et al., 2005 ; Swanepoel et al., 2016 ). Different countries in Africa have demonstrated the different costs of carbon sequestration. For example, carbon sequestration cost in Botswana is $16.75 and in Congo DRC $16.77, the highest in the continent, while lower costs are reported in Nigeria at $7, and Mali at $8 ( Adetoye et al., 2018 ). Policy implementation processes and institutional interactions have been examined in Cameroon and are known to shape Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation (REDD+) ( Gakou-Kakeu et al., 2022 ). In Nigeria, it was noticed that the payment of monetary incentives does not necessarily motivate communities to participate in the REDD+ program ( Isyaku, 2021 ). Here we see a link between mitigation and ecosystems services which is under-explored to the best of our knowledge. Research in this cluster improves governance of social-ecological systems at the local, regional and landscape levels.

Mitigation policy cluster (yellow)

This cluster is mainly focused on mitigation policies related to the energy sector and renewable energies. It shows how researchers are attracted to sustainability challenges faced by African countries ( Beg et al., 2002 ; Ozturk, 2017 ). Researchers are also interested in the sustainable management of forests since they are the main absorbents of CO 2 ( Teketay et al., 2010 ; Njana et al., 2021 ). The main link in this cluster is between institutions and policy. This is an indication that researchers are exploring climate policy designs and the institutions involved in policy making ( Leal Filho et al., 2018 ; Epule et al., 2021 ), and the virtue of the importance of GHGs, mainly CO 2 , in climate change policy. Despite the significance of mitigation policies, relatively limited research has been conducted on these issues. The Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) Renewable Energy Policy has shown a significant and positive impact on primary energy ( Ali and Yu, 2021 ). In Nigeria, policies on ways to stimulate solar technology business are missing in the national solar energy policy document ( Ozoegwu and Akpan, 2021 ). The results of Müller and colleagues agree with ours in that literature of renewable energy policies in African states are rare ( Müller et al., 2020 ).

Thematic focus transitions over time

Four specific periods were investigated to see if some research topics have fluctuated, remained stable, or changed over time. Period one starts from 1990 to 2007, with 2007 corresponding to the release date of the fourth IPCC assessment report. Period two starts from 2008 to 2014, with 2014 corresponding to the publication of the fifth IPPC assessment report. Period three, from 2015 to 2019, and the fourth period from 2020, is referred to as the post-pandemic period in this study.

First period (1990–2007)

A total of 117 articles were published during this period. Although the concept of climate change can be noted as early as 1990, research focus on it was very low, as seen from the few occurrences of relevant terms ( Figure 5 ). Adaptation has been the focus area since the first period, as seen in Figure 5 . Concepts of vulnerability (blue), sustainability (red), and climate variability (green) have appeared during this period ( Bohle et al., 1994 ; Schulze, 1997 ; Dixon, 2003 ; Ogunseitan, 2003 ). The blue cluster insinuates how agricultural practices had become vulnerable to climate change during this period. Therefore, more research had begun to be carried out on the impacts on agriculture. There was also the emergence of studies on the sensitivity of water resources to climate change. The centrality of water resources is relatively low during this period, showing less connection with other topics. Studies on policy formulation and implementation relating to climate change also gained attention. The green cluster is focused on CO 2 emissions and their related studies, which further triggered studies on carbon sequestration. During this period, CO 2 as the main greenhouse gas and its impacts on biodiversity were among the major priority research topics ( Olivier et al., 1999 ; Blignaut et al., 2005 ).

Figure 5 . The output of the term co-occurrence analysis for the first period (1990–2007).

There were also studies specifically focused on modeling the optimal mitigation of the potential impact of climate change ( Jenkins et al., 2002 ). For example, in 2000, Zheng and Neelin used the atmosphere–land–vegetation model to explore vegetation–climate interactions in African savanna ( Zeng and Neelin, 2000 ). It is evident that studies were more on forestry, and its absorbing nature was seen as a mitigating measure. For instance, in 1992, sources and sinks of carbon dioxide and methane exchanges were studied in the Mayombe forest, which was proven to be a net sink of atmospheric methane ( Delmas et al., 1992 ). In this period, main research themes are not closely linked and are weakly related to external topics. This period coincided with the increasing prevalence of the term sustainability, which will be seen in subsequent analysis to dominate the thematic focus of climate change research in Africa. The importance of climate change was further recognized with the signing of the Kyoto Protocol (1992) 2 , which gradually accelerated academic discussion of climate change in the continent as well as the meetings of COP 1 in 1995 to COP 13 in 2007. The release of the IPPC fourth assessment report in 2007 was also a game changer as will be seen in the next period.

Second period (2007–2014)

This period witnessed a rapid growth of publications in the red, green, and blue clusters. This rapid growth might have been triggered by the publication of the fourth IPPC assessment report in 2007. The red cluster had seemingly gained more attention this time. Interestingly research on food security emerges. This is a keyword that was absent in the first period. During this period, it is noticed that there is more research on the climate-stressed water resources presenting a challenge for protecting food security. In the previous period, research was focused on the sensitivity of water resources to climate change, while in this period, water resources and food security are closely linked ( Yang et al., 2003 ; Ngigi, 2009 ; Sheffield et al., 2014 ). Studies on food security have attracted further research on the impacts of climate change on soil. A study on Ethiopian soils showed soil losses were 35.4 t ha −1 yr −1 under changing climate conditions ( Lanckriet et al., 2012 ). There are also other studies focused on soil. For instance, a study was carried out on ferrasols of coastal West Africa to examine soil fertility under global warming ( Amouzou et al., 2013 ). This period sees a shift from carbon sequestration models to models that detect the sensitivity of various alimentary crops. For instance, in Benin, high-resolution regional climate models were used to detect the sensitivity of alimentary crops to changing climate conditions ( Paeth et al., 2008 ). A robust model application to several African crops showed that, except for cassava, there is a 95% probability that climate change damages to crops exceed 7% ( Schlenker and Lobell, 2010 ). Scientists are, therefore, interested in simulating the impacts of climate variability on changing crop yield ( Kurukulasuriya and Mendelsohn, 2008 ; Knox et al., 2012 ; Ahmed et al., 2015 ). There is also a shift in research from water resources-from the adaptative perspective- to the food security perspective, which has gained more prominence compared with the previous period. Urama and Ozor carried out a study on the impact of climate change on water resources from the adaptative perspective and found that rising temperatures of 1.5–2°C affects fisheries in West African lakes ( Urama and Ozor, 2010 ). It was suggested by Ngoran et al., that looking beyond command and control policy will be a better regulatory measure to mitigate climate change on water resources ( Ngoran et al., 2015 ).

There is robust information in the blue cluster to understand climate variability and trends, a requirement to draw a context-specific climate change adaptation intervention. For instance, in 2010, Tshiala and Olwoch studied the relationship between tomato production and climate variability and found a positive trend ( Tshiala and Olwoch, 2010 ). While some keywords continue to be dominant and prominent, like sustainability, climate variability, and vulnerability, several new keywords emerge: energy security, ecosystem services, bioenergy, biomass, productivity, deforestation, conservation, resilience, etc. The emergence of these keywords shows how much attention has been given to the study of climate change. Some or most of these keywords will gain greater momentum in the subsequent periods, as will be discussed in the following sections. There is a drive toward studies on bioenergy (green cluster) that is considered to be an innovative approach in global climate mitigation efforts. There is mainly a new drive toward studies that primarily encompass biofuels produced from forest resources with simple and indigenous technologies ( Adedayo et al., 2010 ; Langat et al., 2016 ). Bio-energy is very potent in reducing atmospheric methane emissions ( Weiland, 2006 ). There is also the emergence of studies on policies to offset climate change impacts on ecosystem services. In South Africa, two key policies emerged: National Climate Change Response White Paper and South Africa's Second National Communication ( Ziervogel et al., 2014 ). In Ethiopia, providing farmers with farming equipment is a policy tool to facilitate farmers' adaptation to climate change ( Bryan et al., 2009 ). As seen in Figure 6 , it is evident that a significant increase has occurred in research on local perceptions about environmental awareness, attitudes, beliefs, and risk perception. Studies on the green cluster have maintained steady growth while the red cluster has bulged. Almost all themes are closely linked and strongly related to the external topics with more attention and influence compared with the first period. The research intensity during this period changed with an increase in the development and maturity of themes.

Figure 6 . The output of the term co-occurrence analysis for the second period (2007–2014).

Third period (2015–2019)

The third period has witnessed explosive growth with the birth of a new cluster ( Figure 7 ). The new yellow cluster focuses on renewable energy, showing a shift from conventional energy consumption to more renewables. The specific renewable energies used in Africa are solar, wind, and hydropower. Nigeria, Angola, DRC, Sudan, and Zambia are leading countries in hydropower, with Angola and DRC generating a net capacity of 2,763 and 2,750 MW, respectively ( Frangoul, 2019 ). Meanwhile, solar and wind energy South Africa, Morocco, Ethiopia, Mozambique, and Egypt are leading states, with South Africa having the highest maximum net capacity of 6,065 MW followed by Egypt with 4,813 and Ethiopia with 4,351 ( Frangoul, 2019 ). The period sees the addition of some new keywords. Among the new keywords are agroforestry, economic growth, smallholder farmers, and conservation agriculture.

Figure 7 . The output of the term co-occurrence analysis for the third period (2014–2019).

Multiple studies have explored the link between climate change and economic growth ( Abidoye and Odusola, 2015 ; Alagidede et al., 2016 ; Adzawla et al., 2019b ). A study in 2015 shows that climate change has a negative impact on economic growth in Africa, such that a 1°C increase in temperature reduces GDP growth by 0.67% ( Abidoye and Odusola, 2015 ). Arndt et al. note that climate change impacts from 2007 to 2050 will lead to a loss of USD 610 million in Malawi ( Arndt et al., 2014 ). According to Radhouane in 2013, a 1°C rise in temperatures in the Northern African countries in a given year reduces economic growth by 1.1 points ( Radhouane, 2013 ). The intensification of studies related to renewable energy is a shift from conventional exhaustible energy resources. Conventional sources raise serious environmental concerns while hampering sustainable economic growth. In Mozambique, there have been advancements toward using renewable energy for irrigation in the agriculture sector ( Chilundo et al., 2019 ; Mahumane and Mulder, 2019 ). Renewable energy policies in Ghana have also been reviewed, and a lack of policy implementation was one of the reasons for a slow transition toward sustainable electrification ( Sakah et al., 2017 ). Another stream of research in the energy discourse mainly focuses on the relationship between renewable energy consumption and economic growth. Arguments on this particular theme emphasize how renewable energy consumption will increase renewable energy production as a measure of environmental sustainability and how this will impact economic growth in Africa ( Alper and Oguz, 2016 ; Bhattacharya et al., 2016 ). Aly et al., investigated the techno-economic feasibility of solar power in Tanzania and found that the net capital cost for an optimized plant in 2025 will be 4680 $/kW at 7% interest rate ( Aly et al., 2019 ).

During this period, there has been a clear focus on adaptation strategies used to deal with climate change and adaptation capacities employed by communities (blue cluster). The main adaptation link occurs with risks and strategies. This observation suggests the propensity to design strategies for climate change adaptation and their interests in how to thwart or be prepared for the likely risks this entails. For instance, developing cultivars is one of the adaptation strategies applied in Northern Cameroon, which shortens the time of cotton maturity and causes a shift in the rainy season without affecting cotton yield ( Gérardeaux et al., 2018 ). The word perception is also associated with risk perception. This indicates the increasing number of studies on indigenous knowledge and how farmers perceive risks where their activities are undertaken ( Leal Filho et al., 2022b ). Ayanlade and colleagues studied farmers' perceptions in Nigeria and confirmed that 67% of farmers had noticed fluctuations in early and late growing seasons ( Ayanlade et al., 2017 ). In South Africa, 77.3% of potato farmers and 66.7% of cabbage farmers experienced extreme temperatures, which led to a fall in their farm productivity. Potato farmers turned to integrate pest management to deal with climate risk, while cabbage farmers turned to planting drought-tolerant varieties ( Elum et al., 2017 ). More studies have adopted a holistic approach to climate change by considering stakeholders' perceptions. For instance, a heat management policy was advocated when mining workers in Ghana suffered heat-related illnesses after a stakeholder consultation meeting ( Nunfam et al., 2019 ). During this period, researchers appear to prefer studying climate change resilience from the adaptation perspective under full consideration of vulnerability. The overwhelming concern of researchers is the socio-environmental impacts on agriculture from extreme events like floods leading to food security issues under different climate variability scenarios. The next most frequent concern in dealing with food security is a shift in focus from agriculture to conservation agriculture. Overall, adaptation-related (blue cluster) studies shrunk while research on food security (red cluster) bulged and research on green cluster maintained a steady growth. The release of the fifth IPCC assessment report, with its scientific information, and technical and socio-economic relevance, triggered a good number of articles based on scientific research about adaptation and mitigation strategies. Thus, in this period, climate change studies have been increasing and becoming more diverse in Africa. These studies incorporated new concepts that allow the topic to be addressed from a range of different disciplines. The fifth IPPC assessment report in 2014 was a critical scientific contribution that led to the successful agreement on the Paris Climate Change accord, producing more research impetus.

Post pandemic period (2020–2021)

During this period, the green cluster and its related sequestration studies continue to attract more relevance ( Figure 8 ). Compared with the previous period, the blue cluster has expanded, while studies on the red cluster begin to receive less relevance. Publications on sustainability, vulnerability, and resilience continued to increase from an adaptation perspective. As seen from the green cluster, ecosystem services and conservation agriculture were studied more closely. Climate-smart agriculture (CSA) is a new area of research receiving more relevance and is widely studied under the red cluster. Among the climate-smart agricultural practices adopted by African farmers are diversification of crops, change of planting time, and crop rotation/mixed cropping ( Nyang'au et al., 2021 ). Climate-smart agricultural practices are recognized as one of the best adaptative strategies because they boost agricultural productivity, increase resilience, and reduce greenhouse gases that cause climate change ( Anuga et al., 2020 ). The yellow cluster that was found in the previous period now merges with the mitigation cluster, and studies on renewable energy continue to rise. Mukoro et al.'s (2021) work predict that by 2040, renewable energy capacity in Africa is expected to reach 169.4 GW from 48.5 GW in 2019. Specifically, in South Africa, as of 2021, a total of 6,422 MW of power has been acquired across 112 renewable energy Independent Power Producers ( Ayamolowo et al., 2022 ). The inevitability of more frequent and more extensive floods, displaying the inherent variability of climate, continued to be studied under the blue cluster ( Ficchi et al., 2021 ; Petrova, 2022 ). Ethiopia's location indicates it is more worried about climate effects on food security (red cluster). At the same time, South Africa and Ghana are also concerned about vulnerability issues (blue cluster). But the main concern of Sub-Saharan Africa is mitigation issues (green cluster).

Figure 8 . The output of the term co-occurrence analysis for the post-pandemic period (2020–2021).

The outset of the pandemic positively impacted climate change research as researchers were able to develop new ideas seen from the rise in publications in <2 years. Unfortunately, the unending lockdowns have drawn attention away from climate change policy nationally and internationally. Environmentalists wonder why there has not been a pandemic preparedness for climate change as it has been for the COVID pandemic ( Phillips et al., 2020 ). Pandemic recovery measures could be one of the solutions to climate change in Africa and the world. A complementary strategy is to use opportunities and lessons provided by the pandemic to accelerate the decline of carbon-intensive industries, technologies, and practices ( Rosenbloom and Markard, 2020 ). Amid the pandemic, agricultural innovation and technologies have been promoted in Africa. The African Development Bank has helped increase the uptake and use of proven high-yielding climate-smart maize technologies by smallholder farmers in Sub-Saharan Africa ( Fernando, 2020 ).

Influential sources

The co-citation analysis was used to find out which journals have contributed the most to the development of the field. Here, the size of the nodes is proportional to the number of citations, and link width is proportional to the strength of the connection between two nodes. Four major clusters can be identified from the results of the co-citation analysis ( Figure 9 ). The colors of these clusters are consistent with those reported for the term co-occurrence analysis. The largest cluster (blue) includes journals that are mainly focused on adaptation and vulnerability aspects. As expected, journals with a key focus on climate change and environmental issues have played a significant role in advancing Africa's knowledge of climate change adaptation. The most prominent journals in this cluster are Climatic Change, Global Environmental Change (GEC), Environmental Science Policy, and World Development. The results show that mitigation (green cluster) has mainly been addressed by journals such as PNAS, Science, Nature, and Forest Ecology and Management. The yellow cluster is dominated by influential journals like Agriculture, Ecosystem and Environment journal, Agricultural Systems, Field Crop Research, and Science of the Total Environment. The red cluster is dominated by journals like Nature Climate Change, Environmental Research Letters, and the Journal of Climatology.

Figure 9 . The most influential journals contributing to the development of climate change adaptation and mitigation.

Overall, the journals that have contributed the most to this literature include Global Environmental Change, PNAS, Climatic Change, Science, Agriculture, Ecosystem and Environment, Energy policy, Environmental Research Letters, Forest Ecology and Management, and Climate while the journals with the most documents are Climate and Development and Sustainability with totals of 131 and 121 documents, respectively.

An interesting observation here is the multidisciplinary nature of this field of knowledge. As seen in Figure 9 , all articles are distributed and disseminated through 66 journals, which involve different fields of application, with emphasis on food security, climate change adaptation, and mitigation studies. This requires that future studies/efforts actively involve the participation of several professionals to add learning in such a complex decision environment.

Major contributing countries and institutions

To recognize the most prominent countries that have contributed to the field, a bibliographic coupling analysis was conducted ( Figure 10 ). The list of the top 20 most prominent countries with the number of documents, number of citations, and total link strength is presented in the Supplementary Table S1 . It is noted that countries like the USA, South Africa, England, Germany, Kenya, and Ethiopia have published more on this topic ( Figure 10 ). The USA, the UK, and South Africa ranked highest in terms of the total number of citations. Interestingly, while developed countries have contributed more, several African countries have also been highlighted. South Africa, Botswana, and Tanzania are some of the African countries with a close collaboration on adaptation, while Kenya, Cameroon, Ghana, and Nigeria have some research interests in food security. Ethiopia, Morocco, Egypt, Tunisia, and Algeria are interested in mitigation research, and Zimbabwe in the energy issues ( Figure 10 ). The first 10 publishing African universities are shown in the Supplementary material with universities from South Africa taking the lead ( Supplementary Table S2 ). Universities in South Africa are ahead of other African universities. An overwhelming number of African universities have not yet contributed to this literature.

Figure 10 . Countries have significantly contributed to the climate change adaptation and mitigation research in Africa.

International organizations like the World Bank, the Center for International Forest Research, World Agroforestry, etc. ( Supplementary Table S3 ) made significant contributions, while international universities from Europe and the USA were prominent contributors ( Supplementary Table S4 ). The focus of most African universities was on food security and adaptation, while that of some international organizations was on mitigation ( Figure 11 ).

Figure 11 . Organizations that have made significant contributions to the advancement of the field.

Influential documents

The blue and yellow clusters include studies that were mostly done from 1990 to 2007 ( Figure 12 ). Obviously, their focus on fundamental adaptation concepts has played an important role in guiding adaptation and vulnerability research. The red and green clusters include studies that were mostly done in the second period (2008–2014). The works of Roudier et al. (2011) stand out in the green cluster. This work predicted 11% yield loss in West Africa due to climate changes, with a higher yield loss of 18% in Northern West Africa ( Roudier et al., 2011 ). Still, in the green cluster, the study by Lobell et al. (2008) , concluded that there is a 95% chance that climate change will harm Southern Africa's maize and wheat, which are seen as the most important crops in need of adaptation. In the red cluster, the work of Deressa et al. (2009) is influential. They assessed the barriers to adaptation in Ethiopia. The result showed that the main barrier to adaptation was a lack of information and finance ( Deressa et al., 2009 ). The work of Brooks et al. (2005) provided a robust assessment of vulnerability to climate-related mortality. They noted that the most vulnerable nations are those situated in sub-Saharan Africa experiencing conflict ( Brooks et al., 2005 ).

Figure 12 . The most influential documents contributing to the development of the field.

Influential authors

The most published authors were Neil Adger, Philip Thornton, Temesgen Deressa, David Lobell, Elizabeth Basauri Bryan, Mike Hulme, Lal Rattan, and Barry Smit ( Figure 13 ). The works of Adger are mostly on the vulnerability of communities and ecosystems to unforeseen climatic changes, causes and consequences of these vulnerabilities, and adaptation strategies ( Adger and Barnett, 2009 ; Adger et al., 2009 ). Thornton, is interested in the impacts of climate change on livestock and livestock systems in developing countries and also curious to know how some African crops respond to climate change ( Thornton et al., 2009a , b ). These results are in line with Nalau and Verrall (2021) , where Adger is also seen as the most prominent author in climate change adaptation research. Our results are consistent with the authors' publication record. For instance, Adger is a famous author in climate change adaptation, Lobell is noted for his writings on climate change mitigation, while Deressa and Bryan are noticeable for their publications on the impacts of climate change on food security.

Figure 13 . The most influential authors contributing to the development of the field.

This overview analysis echos a clear penchant to study and understand local adaptation capacities in Africa in the face of extreme events given that the impacts of climate change are irreversible. The most common unbiased objective in the documents is to determine how people cope with climate change based on their location. Clustering results of the literature suggest that studies on climate change adaptation mainly focused on agriculture and agroforestry, forestry, food, water and energy security. The focus is mainly on climate change adaptation in the agricultural sector. In contrast, less attention is paid to mitigation. Therefore, more research on this topic would be needed.

Woefully, most African institutions lack adequate research, which hampers efforts to address climate change in the continent. Adaptation and mitigation policies need to be developed based on regional and local characteristics, and the promotion and funding of research in this domain led by local experts for the building of a green Africa. African institutions should improve their ability to conduct research on climate change adaptation and mitigation, enter corresponding climate adaptation and mitigation cooperation, and ensure research in this field is relevant and fruitful. Africa, with the highest population and urban population growth rates globally, is likely to have major implications for climate change. However, it did not emerge from our analysis.

The more that is known about climate change adaptation and mitigation in the African continent, the greater the understanding and support will be to make feasible decisions. There will also be more motivation to engage in local climate change adaptation and mitigation actions. Local knowledge and cultural practices should be recognized because they can complement scientific information in the design of adequate and effective adaptation and mitigation policies. Knowledge and technology gaps in African countries should be overcome to promote climate change mitigation research, whose progress is still due to inadequate analytical infrastructure to conduct the required measurements to assess the impacts of climate change which act as a prerequisite for adaptation planning. African countries need to enhance their research ability in the field of climate change mitigation through international cooperation and other extensive methods. This will bring more focus on African problems and, therefore, find solutions suitable to African characteristics. There is a need for a closing window of opportunity to avoid worse case scenarios in the continent. Collaboration, determination and trust across countries and amongst stakeholder groups will one way in meeting the challenge.

This study conducted statistical analysis on the data of SCI/SSCI published from 1990 to November 2021 through keyword retrieval. The study found that the publication volume of climate change adaptation and mitigation research in Africa has risen rapidly in recent years. Despite this rapid increase, some countries have contributed less to the publication volume. It is necessary to implement regional cooperation on climate change adaptation and mitigation in the region and improve the research capabilities of African countries in this field. Research on climate change adaptation and mitigation in African countries is of great concern and future research should pay more attention to African countries that have contributed less to the publication volume. In the end, it should be noted that this bibliometric review had some limitations. Using only English papers and sourcing data from the web of science database means that other potentially relevant studies published in local journals not indexed in the web of science could have been missed. Examining such sources would allow gaining a more comprehensive understanding of the structure and trend of the literatyre. Apart from articles published in local journals, the exclusion of gray literature was due to quality concerns and also because such studies are not indexed in formats compatible with the bibliometric analysis software tools. However, since our aim was to understand the overall structure and we already have a large number of articles in the database, we argue that the impacts of these limitations on the results are minimal.

Author contributions

Conceptualization, methodology, and software: AS. Formal analysis: AS and YB. Writing—original draft preparation: YB, AS, ST, NNG, and NG. Writing—review and editing: AS and ZA. All authors have read and agreed to the published version of the manuscript.

Conflict of interest

The authors declare that the research was conducted in the absence of any commercial or financial relationships that could be construed as a potential conflict of interest.

Publisher's note

All claims expressed in this article are solely those of the authors and do not necessarily represent those of their affiliated organizations, or those of the publisher, the editors and the reviewers. Any product that may be evaluated in this article, or claim that may be made by its manufacturer, is not guaranteed or endorsed by the publisher.

Supplementary material

The Supplementary Material for this article can be found online at: https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fclim.2022.976427/full#supplementary-material

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Keywords: climate change, adaptation, mitigation, Africa, bibliometric analysis, urbanization, vulnerability, risk

Citation: Baninla Y, Sharifi A, Allam Z, Tume SJP, Gangtar NN and George N (2022) An overview of climate change adaptation and mitigation research in Africa. Front. Clim. 4:976427. doi: 10.3389/fclim.2022.976427

Received: 23 June 2022; Accepted: 11 October 2022; Published: 28 October 2022.

Reviewed by:

Copyright © 2022 Baninla, Sharifi, Allam, Tume, Gangtar and George. This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (CC BY) . The use, distribution or reproduction in other forums is permitted, provided the original author(s) and the copyright owner(s) are credited and that the original publication in this journal is cited, in accordance with accepted academic practice. No use, distribution or reproduction is permitted which does not comply with these terms.

*Correspondence: Ayyoob Sharifi, sharifi@hiroshima-u.ac.jp

This article is part of the Research Topic

New Challenges and Future Perspectives in Climate Adaptation: 2022

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The Impact of Climate Change on Africa’s Economies

• Charles A. Ray
• October 29, 2021
• Africa Program

Despite contributing only a minute amount of global greenhouse gas emissions, the African continent suffers the deleterious effects of climate change to a disproportionate degree. The heavy carbon emitters, like China and the United States, have a moral obligation to help the nations of Africa, particularly the rural areas of these countries, mitigate the impact of climate change, not just to help Africa, but to help the rest of the world.

The data tells a chilling story that should make everyone—including the leaders of the major polluting nations and donor countries, as well as the leaders of African nations—commit to implementing policies, allocating resources, and taking the necessary actions to address the situation. Increased temperatures cause deadly heat waves. Varying rainfall leads to flooding in some areas and droughts in others, both of which reduce agricultural production, increase food insecurity and food prices, and cause dislocation of poverty-stricken rural populations to already overcrowded urban areas that are ill-equipped to accept them, or to other nations, including those outside Africa, that are wrestling with their own climate-related problems. The ongoing United Nations Climate Change Conference ( COP26 ) should specifically address the climate change impact on Africa or failing that the African Union (AU) should call for an Africa-specific conference to address this issue.

Climate Change Hits Africa Hard—Rural Areas Hardest of All

Climate change threatens the lives and livelihoods of over 100 million in extreme poverty. Global warming is expected to melt Africa’s remaining glaciers in the next few decades, and the reduction in water essential to agricultural production will create food insecurity, poverty, and population displacement. In Sub-Saharan Africa, the gross domestic product (GDP ) could be reduced by up to three percent by 2050. Even without the deleterious impact of climate change, global poverty is one of the world’s worst problems. It is estimated that one in three Africans, or over 400 million people, live below the global poverty line, which is defined as less than $1.90 per day. The world’s poorest people are often hungry, have less access to education, have no light at night, and suffer from poor health.

Agriculture is critical to Africa’s economic growth. Climate change could destabilize local markets, increase food insecurity, limit economic growth, and increase risk for agriculture sector investors. African agriculture is particularly vulnerable to the impacts of climate change because it is heavily dependent on rainfall, and climate change has seriously affected rainfall throughout the continent. The Sahel, for instance, is largely dependent on rain-fed agriculture , and it is already hit regularly by droughts and floods, both of which kill crops and reduce yield. With temperatures expected to increase 1.5 times higher than the rest of the world by the end of the 21 st century, African countries will see shorter wet spells (leading to droughts) or heavier rains (causing floods), leading to reduced food production because they lack the infrastructure and support systems present in wealthier nations. By 2030, crop yields across the continent are projected to decrease by varying amounts depending upon the region. Southern Africa, for example, is expected to experience a 20 percent decrease in rainfall.

When Rural Areas Catch Colds, Cities Sneeze

Rural areas in Africa, while suffering the most from climate change, are not alone. Crises in rural areas often lead to dislocation of rural populations to urban areas. According to a 2017 report by the United Nations, more than half the global population lives in urban areas. The African continent has the world’s fastest rate of urbanization. In 1960, only 20 percent of the populations lived in cities. The current rate is over 40 percent, and, by 2050, the number is projected to be 60 percent. Sub-Saharan Africa is regarded as the world’s fastest urbanizing region, with an urban population fo 472 million in 2018, which is expected to double by 2043. Climate issues will only exacerbate urbanization and associated crises. In developing countries, relocation from rural to urban areas often leads to an improvement in living standards. This is seldom the case in Sub-Saharan Africa.

While urbanization has historically increased prosperity, in Africa, most weather-related relocations involve moving from rural privation to urban poverty . Up to 70 percent of Africa’s urban population lives in slums. Living conditions in these urban areas are poor due to relative wealth levels, lack of economic development in cities to match the rate of urbanization, unemployment, poor access to services, and resentment that occasionally erupts in xenophobic violence.

However, people fleeing from climate-affected rural areas will not be safe from climate change in urban areas because these urban areas are environmentally vulnerable to flooding. Some areas are affected by poor land use and choice of building materials, which trap heat and contribute to the urban heat island effect, leading to extreme heat waves with their attendant health risks.

Mitigating the Impact

According to the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI ), by 2050, climate change will lead to higher temperatures and mixed rainfall, leading to changes in crop yields and growth of the agricultural sector, higher food prices, less availability of food, and increased child malnutrition. Warming in Sub-Saharan Africa is expected to be higher than the global average, and many regions of the continent will get less rainfall. Reduced rainfall will be particularly devastating in those countries that are heavily dependent on rain for agricultural production. With Africa’s rate of population growth, food supply will be hard-pressed to keep up with demand.

Failure to reduce global warming hurts all countries on the globe, but African countries, because they are most vulnerable , will be hurt most. High levels of poverty, dependence on rainfall for agricultural production, weak or missing infrastructure, and lack of social safety nets combine to exacerbate an already dire situation. While some of the responsibility to address these problems rests with African governments, climate justice demands that there be international cooperation to tackle this existential threat. African governments, in partnership with the international community, should commit to sustained action to mitigate the impact of climate change, in particular the effects on the most vulnerable within their countries.

Climate Change Mitigation Action Plan

This article offers some priority action items that should be taken up immediately, either at COP26 or an AU-sponsored conference. This is not an all inclusive list, but implementation of these actions would move the ball forward significantly.

• Factor weather-driven migration into the design and construction of urban areas.
• Promote sustainable growth, especially in rural communities.
• Promote climate-friendly agriculture, such as, efficient, clean energy and micro-irrigation.
• Provide easy access to weather and climate information, especially to women who make up a large percentage of the agricultural workforce and are the most vulnerable.
• Substantially increase investment in agricultural research. Africa currently has 17 percent of the world’s population and is heavily dependent on agriculture, but only receives four percent of investment in agricultural research from all sources, including donors or internal government budgets. An increased investment in research will provide a better understanding of Africa’s climate and the impact of climate change. The bulk of this research, though it might be primarily internationally funded, should be done by Africans.
• Provide broad and sustained support for food security and expanded access to health care, with emphasis on the most vulnerable.
• Increase intra-African cooperation to manage conflict and provide disaster relief.

The views expressed in this article are those of the author alone and do not necessarily reflect the position of the Foreign Policy Research Institute, a non-partisan organization that seeks to publish well-argued, policy-oriented articles on American foreign policy and national security priorities.

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Essay on Global Warming

• Updated on  
• Nov 23, 2023

Being able to write an essay is an integral part of mastering any language. Essays form an integral part of many academic and scholastic exams like the SAT , and UPSC amongst many others. It is a crucial evaluative part of English proficiency tests as well like IELTS , TOEFL , etc. Major essays are meant to emphasize public issues of concern that can have significant consequences on the world. To understand the concept of Global Warming and its causes and effects, we must first examine the many factors that influence the planet’s temperature and what this implies for the world’s future. Here’s an unbiased look at the essay on Global Warming and other essential related topics.

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Since the industrial and scientific revolutions, Earth’s resources have been gradually depleted. Furthermore, the start of the world’s population’s exponential expansion is particularly hard on the environment. Simply put, as the population’s need for consumption grows, so does the use of natural resources , as well as the waste generated by that consumption.

Climate change has been one of the most significant long-term consequences of this. Climate change is more than just the rise or fall of global temperatures; it also affects rain cycles, wind patterns, cyclone frequencies, sea levels, and other factors. It has an impact on all major life groupings on the planet.

Also Read: World Population Day

What is Global Warming?

Global warming is the unusually rapid increase in Earth’s average surface temperature over the past century, primarily due to the greenhouse gases released by people burning fossil fuels . The greenhouse gases consist of methane, nitrous oxide, ozone, carbon dioxide, water vapour, and chlorofluorocarbons. The weather prediction has been becoming more complex with every passing year, with seasons more indistinguishable, and the general temperatures hotter. The number of hurricanes, cyclones, droughts, floods, etc., has risen steadily since the onset of the 21st century. The supervillain behind all these changes is Global Warming. The name is quite self-explanatory; it means the rise in the temperature of the Earth.

Also Read: What is a Natural Disaster?

According to recent studies, many scientists believe the following are the primary four causes of global warming:

• Deforestation 
• Greenhouse emissions
• Carbon emissions per capita

Extreme global warming is causing natural disasters , which can be seen all around us. One of the causes of global warming is the extreme release of greenhouse gases that become trapped on the earth’s surface, causing the temperature to rise. Similarly, volcanoes contribute to global warming by spewing excessive CO2 into the atmosphere.

The increase in population is one of the major causes of Global Warming. This increase in population also leads to increased air pollution . Automobiles emit a lot of CO2, which remains in the atmosphere. This increase in population is also causing deforestation, which contributes to global warming.

The earth’s surface emits energy into the atmosphere in the form of heat, keeping the balance with the incoming energy. Global warming depletes the ozone layer, bringing about the end of the world. There is a clear indication that increased global warming will result in the extinction of all life on Earth’s surface.

Also Read: Land, Soil, Water, Natural Vegetation, and Wildlife Resources

Of course, industries and multinational conglomerates emit more carbon than the average citizen. Nonetheless, activism and community effort are the only viable ways to slow the worsening effects of global warming. Furthermore, at the state or government level, world leaders must develop concrete plans and step-by-step programmes to ensure that no further harm is done to the environment in general.

Although we are almost too late to slow the rate of global warming, finding the right solution is critical. Everyone, from individuals to governments, must work together to find a solution to Global Warming. Some of the factors to consider are pollution control, population growth, and the use of natural resources.

One very important contribution you can make is to reduce your use of plastic. Plastic is the primary cause of global warming, and recycling it takes years. Another factor to consider is deforestation, which will aid in the control of global warming. More tree planting should be encouraged to green the environment. Certain rules should also govern industrialization. Building industries in green zones that affect plants and species should be prohibited.

Also Read: Essay on Pollution

Global warming is a real problem that many people want to disprove to gain political advantage. However, as global citizens, we must ensure that only the truth is presented in the media.

This decade has seen a significant impact from global warming. The two most common phenomena observed are glacier retreat and arctic shrinkage. Glaciers are rapidly melting. These are clear manifestations of climate change.

Another significant effect of global warming is the rise in sea level. Flooding is occurring in low-lying areas as a result of sea-level rise. Many countries have experienced extreme weather conditions. Every year, we have unusually heavy rain, extreme heat and cold, wildfires, and other natural disasters.

Similarly, as global warming continues, marine life is being severely impacted. This is causing the extinction of marine species as well as other problems. Furthermore, changes are expected in coral reefs, which will face extinction in the coming years. These effects will intensify in the coming years, effectively halting species expansion. Furthermore, humans will eventually feel the negative effects of Global Warming.

Also Read: Concept of Sustainable Development

Sample Essays on Global Warming

Here are some sample essays on Global Warming:

Global Warming is caused by the increase of carbon dioxide levels in the earth’s atmosphere and is a result of human activities that have been causing harm to our environment for the past few centuries now. Global Warming is something that can’t be ignored and steps have to be taken to tackle the situation globally. The average temperature is constantly rising by 1.5 degrees Celsius over the last few years. The best method to prevent future damage to the earth, cutting down more forests should be banned and Afforestation should be encouraged. Start by planting trees near your homes and offices, participate in events, and teach the importance of planting trees. It is impossible to undo the damage but it is possible to stop further harm.

Also Read: Social Forestry

Over a long period, it is observed that the temperature of the earth is increasing. This affected wildlife , animals, humans, and every living organism on earth. Glaciers have been melting, and many countries have started water shortages, flooding, and erosion and all this is because of global warming. No one can be blamed for global warming except for humans. Human activities such as gases released from power plants, transportation, and deforestation have increased gases such as carbon dioxide, CFCs, and other pollutants in the earth’s atmosphere. The main question is how can we control the current situation and build a better world for future generations. It starts with little steps by every individual. Start using cloth bags made from sustainable materials for all shopping purposes, instead of using high-watt lights use energy-efficient bulbs, switch off the electricity, don’t waste water, abolish deforestation and encourage planting more trees. Shift the use of energy from petroleum or other fossil fuels to wind and solar energy. Instead of throwing out the old clothes donate them to someone so that it is recycled. Donate old books, don’t waste paper.  Above all, spread awareness about global warming. Every little thing a person does towards saving the earth will contribute in big or small amounts. We must learn that 1% effort is better than no effort. Pledge to take care of Mother Nature and speak up about global warming.

Also Read: Types of Water Pollution

Global warming isn’t a prediction, it is happening! A person denying it or unaware of it is in the most simple terms complicit. Do we have another planet to live on? Unfortunately, we have been bestowed with this one planet only that can sustain life yet over the years we have turned a blind eye to the plight it is in. Global warming is not an abstract concept but a global phenomenon occurring ever so slowly even at this moment. Global Warming is a phenomenon that is occurring every minute resulting in a gradual increase in the Earth’s overall climate. Brought about by greenhouse gases that trap the solar radiation in the atmosphere, global warming can change the entire map of the earth, displacing areas, flooding many countries, and destroying multiple lifeforms. Extreme weather is a direct consequence of global warming but it is not an exhaustive consequence. There are virtually limitless effects of global warming which are all harmful to life on earth. The sea level is increasing by 0.12 inches per year worldwide. This is happening because of the melting of polar ice caps because of global warming. This has increased the frequency of floods in many lowland areas and has caused damage to coral reefs. The Arctic is one of the worst-hit areas affected by global warming. Air quality has been adversely affected and the acidity of the seawater has also increased causing severe damage to marine life forms. Severe natural disasters are brought about by global warming which has had dire effects on life and property. As long as mankind produces greenhouse gases, global warming will continue to accelerate. The consequences are felt at a much smaller scale which will increase to become drastic shortly. The power to save the day lies in the hands of humans, the need is to seize the day. Energy consumption should be reduced on an individual basis. Fuel-efficient cars and other electronics should be encouraged to reduce the wastage of energy sources. This will also improve air quality and reduce the concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. Global warming is an evil that can only be defeated when fought together. It is better late than never. If we all take steps today, we will have a much brighter future tomorrow. Global warming is the bane of our existence and various policies have come up worldwide to fight it but that is not enough. The actual difference is made when we work at an individual level to fight it. Understanding its import now is crucial before it becomes an irrevocable mistake. Exterminating global warming is of utmost importance and each one of us is as responsible for it as the next.  

Always hear about global warming everywhere, but do we know what it is? The evil of the worst form, global warming is a phenomenon that can affect life more fatally. Global warming refers to the increase in the earth’s temperature as a result of various human activities. The planet is gradually getting hotter and threatening the existence of lifeforms on it. Despite being relentlessly studied and researched, global warming for the majority of the population remains an abstract concept of science. It is this concept that over the years has culminated in making global warming a stark reality and not a concept covered in books. Global warming is not caused by one sole reason that can be curbed. There are multifarious factors that cause global warming most of which are a part of an individual’s daily existence. Burning of fuels for cooking, in vehicles, and for other conventional uses, a large amount of greenhouse gases like carbon dioxide, and methane amongst many others is produced which accelerates global warming. Rampant deforestation also results in global warming as lesser green cover results in an increased presence of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere which is a greenhouse gas.  Finding a solution to global warming is of immediate importance. Global warming is a phenomenon that has to be fought unitedly. Planting more trees can be the first step that can be taken toward warding off the severe consequences of global warming. Increasing the green cover will result in regulating the carbon cycle. There should be a shift from using nonrenewable energy to renewable energy such as wind or solar energy which causes less pollution and thereby hinder the acceleration of global warming. Reducing energy needs at an individual level and not wasting energy in any form is the most important step to be taken against global warming. The warning bells are tolling to awaken us from the deep slumber of complacency we have slipped into. Humans can fight against nature and it is high time we acknowledged that. With all our scientific progress and technological inventions, fighting off the negative effects of global warming is implausible. We have to remember that we do not inherit the earth from our ancestors but borrow it from our future generations and the responsibility lies on our shoulders to bequeath them a healthy planet for life to exist. 

Also Read: Essay on Disaster Management

One good action in a day is to combat the heat.

Global Warming and Climate Change are two sides of the same coin. Both are interrelated with each other and are two issues of major concern worldwide. Greenhouse gases released such as carbon dioxide, CFCs, and other pollutants in the earth’s atmosphere cause Global Warming which leads to climate change. Black holes have started to form in the ozone layer that protects the earth from harmful ultraviolet rays. Human activities have created climate change and global warming. Industrial waste and fumes are the major contributors to global warming. Another factor affecting is the burning of fossil fuels, deforestation and also one of the reasons for climate change.  Global warming has resulted in shrinking mountain glaciers in Antarctica, Greenland, and the Arctic and causing climate change. Switching from the use of fossil fuels to energy sources like wind and solar. When buying any electronic appliance buy the best quality with energy savings stars. Don’t waste water and encourage rainwater harvesting in your community. 

Also Read: Essay on Air Pollution

Writing an effective essay needs skills that few people possess and even fewer know how to implement. While writing an essay can be an assiduous task that can be unnerving at times, some key pointers can be inculcated to draft a successful essay. These involve focusing on the structure of the essay, planning it out well, and emphasizing crucial details. Mentioned below are some pointers that can help you write better structure and more thoughtful essays that will get across to your readers:

• Prepare an outline for the essay to ensure continuity and relevance and no break in the structure of the essay
• Decide on a thesis statement that will form the basis of your essay. It will be the point of your essay and help readers understand your contention
• Follow the structure of an introduction, a detailed body followed by a conclusion so that the readers can comprehend the essay in a particular manner without any dissonance.
• Make your beginning catchy and include solutions in your conclusion to make the essay insightful and lucrative to read
• Reread before putting it out and add your flair to the essay to make it more personal and thereby unique and intriguing for readers  

Relevant Blogs

Ans. Both natural and man-made factors contribute to global warming. The natural one also contains methane gas, volcanic eruptions, and greenhouse gases. Deforestation , mining , livestock raising, burning fossil fuels, and other man-made causes are next.

Ans. The government and the general public can work together to stop global warming. Trees must be planted more often, and deforestation must be prohibited. Auto usage needs to be curbed, and recycling needs to be promoted.

Ans. Switching to renewable energy sources , adopting sustainable farming, transportation, and energy methods, and conserving water and other natural resources.

We hope this blog gave you an idea about how to write and present an essay on global warming that puts forth your opinions. The skill of writing an essay comes in handy when appearing for standardized language tests . Thinking of taking one soon? Leverage Edu provides the best online test prep for the same via Leverage Live . Register today to know more!

Digvijay Singh

Having 2+ years of experience in educational content writing, withholding a Bachelor's in Physical Education and Sports Science and a strong interest in writing educational content for students enrolled in domestic and foreign study abroad programmes. I believe in offering a distinct viewpoint to the table, to help students deal with the complexities of both domestic and foreign educational systems. Through engaging storytelling and insightful analysis, I aim to inspire my readers to embark on their educational journeys, whether abroad or at home, and to make the most of every learning opportunity that comes their way.

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This was really a good essay on global warming… There has been used many unic words..and I really liked it!!!Seriously I had been looking for a essay about Global warming just like this…

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I want to learn how to write essay writing so I joined this page.This page is very useful for everyone.

Hi, we are glad that we could help you to write essays. We have a beginner’s guide to write essays ( https://leverageedu.com/blog/essay-writing/ ) and we think this might help you.

It is not good , to have global warming in our earth .So we all have to afforestation program on all the world.

thank you so much

Very educative , helpful and it is really going to strength my English knowledge to structure my essay in future

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Global warming is the increase in 𝓽𝓱𝓮 ᴀᴠᴇʀᴀɢᴇ ᴛᴇᴍᴘᴇʀᴀᴛᴜʀᴇs ᴏғ ᴇᴀʀᴛʜ🌎 ᴀᴛᴍᴏsᴘʜᴇʀᴇ

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Climate change adaptation in South Africa: a case study on the role of the health sector

Matthew f. chersich.

1 Wits Reproductive Health and HIV Institute, Faculty of Health Sciences, University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, South Africa

Caradee Y. Wright

2 Environment and Health Research Unit, South African Medical Research Council and Department of Geography, Geoinformatics and Meteorology, University of Pretoria, Pretoria, South Africa

Associated Data

Not applicable as it is a review. Data sharing is not applicable to this article as no datasets were generated or analysed during the current study.

Globally, the response to climate change is gradually gaining momentum as the impacts of climate change unfold. In South Africa, it is increasingly apparent that delays in responding to climate change over the past decades have jeopardized human life and livelihoods. While slow progress with mitigation, especially in the energy sector, has garnered much attention, focus is now shifting to developing plans and systems to adapt to the impacts of climate change.

We applied systematic review methods to assess progress with climate change adaptation in the health sector in South Africa. This case study provides useful lessons which could be applied in other countries in the African region, or globally. We reviewed the literature indexed in PubMed and Web of Science, together with relevant grey literature. We included articles describing adaptation interventions to reduce the impact of climate change on health in South Africa. All study designs were eligible. Data from included articles and grey literature were summed thematically.

Of the 820 publications screened, 21 were included, together with an additional xx papers. Very few studies presented findings of an intervention or used high-quality research designs. Several policy frameworks for climate change have been developed at national and local government levels. These, however, pay little attention to health concerns and the specific needs of vulnerable groups. Systems for forecasting extreme weather, and tracking malaria and other infections appear well established. Yet, there is little evidence about the country’s preparedness for extreme weather events, or the ability of the already strained health system to respond to these events. Seemingly, few adaptation measures have taken place in occupational and other settings. To date, little attention has been given to climate change in training curricula for health workers.

Conclusions

Overall, the volume and quality of research is disappointing, and disproportionate to the threat posed by climate change in South Africa. This is surprising given that the requisite expertise for policy advocacy, identifying effective interventions and implementing systems-based approaches rests within the health sector. More effective use of data, a traditional strength of health professionals, could support adaptation and promote accountability of the state. With increased health-sector leadership, climate change could be reframed as predominately a health issue, one necessitating an urgent, adequately-resourced response. Such a shift in South Africa, but also beyond the country, may play a key role in accelerating climate change adaptation and mitigation.

The impacts of global changes in climate are rapidly escalating in South Africa. Unless concerted action is taken to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, temperatures may rise by more than 4 °C over the southern African interior by 2100, and by more than 6 °C over the western, central and northern parts of South Africa [ 1 , 2 ]. Extreme weather events are the most noticeable effects to date, especially the drought in the Western Cape and wildfires, but rises in vector- and waterborne diseases are also gaining prominence. Global warming, which manifests as climate variability, has already been implicated in increased transmission of malaria, Rift Valley Fever, schistosomiasis, cholera and other diarrheal pathogens, and Avian influenza in the country [ 3 – 10 ]. Studies have documented the considerable impact of high ambient temperatures on mortality in the country, with mortality rises of 0.9% per 1 °C above certain thresholds, and considerably higher levels in the elderly and young children [ 11 , 12 ]. Food security is under threat, with, for example, crop yields likely to decline in several provinces, with concomitant loss of livestock [ 13 ]. Moreover, any negative impacts of climate change on the country’s economy will have major implications for people’s access to food, which is largely contingent on affordability. Food access is already tenuous given the existing levels of poverty and as ownership of arable land is highly inequitable, reflecting the particular history of the country [ 14 ].

The impact of rises in temperature are especially marked in occupational settings, particularly in the mining, agriculture and outdoor service sectors [ 15 – 17 ]. Impacts, including measurable mortality effects, are heightened in those living in informal settlements, where houses are often constructed of sheets of corrugated iron [ 18 – 20 ]. In addition, heat increments are pronounced in many schools and health facilities as these have not been constructed to withstand current and future temperature levels [ 21 , 22 ]. Importantly, all the impacts of climate change affect mental health, in a nation where already one sixth of the population have a mental health disorder [ 23 ].

While climate mitigation efforts, especially a reduction in carbon-based power production, have garnered much attention, focus is shifting to more direct, and shorter or ‘near’ term actions to counter the impacts of climate change [ 24 – 26 ]. These actions – commonly called adaptation measures – range from building the resilience of the population and health system, to preparing for health impacts of extreme weather events and to reducing the effects of incremental rises in heat in the workplace and other settings [ 27 ].

Most importantly, the effectiveness of adaptation pivots on reducing levels of poverty and inequities, especially in women and other vulnerable groups. Simply put: if an individual’s or household’s socio-economic status is robust, they will have a greater ability to withstand shocks induced by climate change. In South Africa, however, about a quarter of the population are unemployed and over half live below the poverty line [ 28 ]. Poverty reduction initiatives, such as the highly successful social grants system [ 29 ], thus lie at the heart of health adaptation. These initiatives already reach 17.5 million vulnerable people in South Africa [ 30 ], could be further extended to counter balance the disproportionate effects of climate change on vulnerable groups [ 31 ]. Equally, having a resilient health system is central to effective climate change adaptation.

While health professionals can play a critical role in advocating for stronger mitigation efforts such as a shift from brown to green energy (the government envisages that in 2030, still two thirds of energy production in the country will be coal-based [ 32 ]), the contribution of the health sector mostly centres around climate change adaptation. Several features of an effective health-sector adaptation response bear mention [ 33 ]. Firstly, national- and local-level policy frameworks and plans are required, supported by adequate resources. In particular, emergency incident response plans are needed for events such as heat waves, wildfires, floods, extreme water scarcity and infectious disease outbreaks [ 34 ]. These response plans set out the procedures to follow in the case of such events and the responsibilities of different actors. Secondly, communication is a key component of adaptation strategies, targeting a wide range of audiences, and using social and other media. Long-term communications strategies, such as “Heat education” campaigns, can raise awareness of the health risks of heat waves, and help prepare individuals and communities to self-manage their responses to increased heat [ 35 ]. Then, more short-term response communication is needed when an actual extreme weather event is forecast, making the public aware of an impending period of risk and what steps are needed to ameliorate that risk. Thirdly, the effectiveness of adaptation interventions rests on the strength of data systems and surveillance. Aside from providing warnings of extreme weather events, heightened surveillance is required of diseases associated with environmental factors, together with concerted efforts to systematically document the effectiveness of adaptation responses and to identify opportunities for improving services.

There is clearly a real opportunity to bring the credible voice and considerable resources of the health sector to bear on climate change policies and programmes [ 36 – 38 ]. It is important to assess the extent to which this is occurring and gaps in this response. Some reviews have examined this issue in South Africa [ 39 – 41 ], but none have done so recently, or employed systematic review methodology. This study fills that gap and presents lessons from the response in South Africa that might be applied in other countries and, indeed, globally [ 42 ]. In recent decades, South Africa has played a leading role in tackling public health issues affecting the African region, especially in the HIV field. The country has the potential, drawing on its research and programme expertise, to play a similar role in climate change adaptation, galvanising action in other parts of the continent. Thus, while the impacts of climate are somewhat unique to each country and even within different parts of a country, lessons drawn from this case study may provide useful insights for other countries in the region.

The paper is divided into two thematic areas. The first covers policy frameworks relating to climate change adaptation, as well as data monitoring and surveillance of climate change adaptation in the country. The second reviews the level of preparedness and actions already taken for extreme weather events, rises in temperature and infectious disease outbreaks. Topics indirectly related to health, such as food security, are not addressed in the paper, though remain of key importance.

Review methods

We systematically reviewed literature indexed in PubMed (Medline) and Web of Science for articles that address climate change adaptation in South Africa. Full details and the PRISMA Flow Chart are described elsewhere [ 43 ]. The Pubmed search strategy included free text terms and controlled vocabulary terms (MeSH codes), specifically: (((((“South Africa”[MeSH]) OR (“South Africa”[Title/Abstract]) OR (“Southern Africa*”[Title/Abstract]))) AND “last 10 years”[PDat])) AND (((“global warming”[Title/Abstract] OR “global warming”[MeSH] OR climatic*[Title/Abstract] OR “climate change”[Title/Abstract] OR “climate change”[MeSH] OR “Desert Climate”[MeSH] OR “El Nino-Southern Oscillation”[MeSH] OR Microclimate[MeSH] OR “Tropical Climate”[MeSH])). This strategy was translated into a Web of Science search.

In total, 820 titles and abstracts were screened by a single reviewer after removal of 34 duplicate items. To be included, articles had to describe adaptation interventions to reduce the impact of climate change on health in South Africa. All study designs were eligible and no time limits were imposed. We excluded articles that were not in English ( n  = 3), only covered animals or plants ( n  = 345), were not on South Africa ( n  = 273), were unrelated to health ( n  = 57) or to climate change ( n  = 56), or were only on climate change impact ( n  = 34) or mitigation ( n  = 31). In total, we screened 86 full text articles for eligibility, 21 of which were included (Fig.  1 ). We also included literature located through searches of article references (one additional paper) or through targeted internet searches. Thereafter, we extracted data on the characteristics of the included articles, including their study design and outcome measures (Table  1 ). In analysis, we grouped studies on similar topics and, where possible, attempted to highlight commonalities or differences between the study findings. Policy documents were located by searching the website of the National Department of Environmental Affairs ( https://www.environment.gov.za ) and the National Department of Health ( http://www.health.gov.za/ ), and by asking experts familiar with these policies in South Africa.

PRISMA Flow Diagram for Review of health-related adaptation to Climate Change in South Africa

Characteristics of studies included in the review

CC climate change

Engagement of the health sector in climate change policies, planning and data systems

We located 14 journal articles on health sector engagement. With these limited number of records, results are presented as a narrative, rather than as a comparison of findings in different parts of the country or across population groups. We first discuss national and local policies and practices, and then turn to assess the climate and health monitoring systems in the country.

In recent years, the national government has developed a series of documents covering key legislative and strategic aspects of adaptation. In 2018, the government released a draft of the National Climate Change Response White Paper which sets out the different ways in which climate change considerations can be integrated within all sectors, including health. This document updates the 2011 White Paper on this topic. More recently, the draft National Climate Change Bill was made available for comment [ 24 ]. Little reference is made to human health and scanty detail is provided on actual implementation of the policies. Additionally, in 2017, the second draft of the South African National Adaptation Strategy was made open for public comment [ 25 ]. This is a ten-year plan, which describes key strategic areas, with measurable outcomes. The strategy acts as a reference point for all climate change adaptation efforts in South Africa, providing overarching guidance across the various sectors of the economy. As such, it seeks to ensure that different levels of government and the private sector integrate and reflect climate change adaptation. The implementation priorities for health are listed as water and sanitation, early warning systems for effective public health interventions during extreme weather events, and occupational health.

While national policies set the stage for lower levels of government and funding prioritisation, much of the actual planning for climate change adaptation occurs at the provincial and local government level. Most importantly, each local area government is charged with developing an Integrated Development Plan every five years, involving many sectors, including health [ 44 ]. Health implications of climate change are mentioned in some of these plans, but not all [ 45 – 47 ]. A survey of Environmental Health Practitioners ( n  = 48), who are at the forefront of implementing these plans, provides insights of the degree to which climate change priorities have been incorporated within these plans [ 48 ]. Though almost all felt that they should play a supportive or leading role in addressing climate change, only half had a budget allocated for climate change and health-related work, and only a third had ever participated in climate change-related projects. Another study involving fieldwork in a range of settings in South Africa reported that, for climate change adaptation plans to be successful, local communities need to be more involved in their design and implementation [ 49 ]. A further study in eThekwini Municipality, KwaZulu-Natal Province noted that few climate change advocates had emerged among local politicians and civil servants, and that decisions made at the local government level seldom took climate change issues into account [ 50 ]. A case study of the Integrated Development Plan in the same municipality examined the working relations between the local government, civil society and private sector actors on climate change initiatives, forming a ‘network governance’ structure [ 51 ]. Having a ‘network’ helped local government shift from ruling by regulations and authority, to a ‘softer approach’, one that ‘enabled’ solutions to climate challenges. For their part, however, the private sector found it challenging to incorporate climate-sensitive actions into their modus operandi and may require financial incentives to adopt mitigation and adaptation measures. Concerns remain that the private sector - and indeed the public sector – view environmental issues as constraints to profit and development, rather than as contributors [ 50 ].

While it appears that national and local policy and planning frameworks can influence programmes and funding allocations, at least to some extent, their impact needs to be monitored closely, using appropriate indicators. These data can help decision-makers to identify programmatic areas to target, researchers to analyse and benchmark programme performance, and civil society and communities to gauge service provision in their area. The growing and shifting burden of climate-sensitive diseases, however, means that the district- and national-level indicators currently used for monitoring disease and service provision may be less relevant in this new era.

A review in 2014 emphasized the need for developing new tools for incorporating data from climate monitoring systems, for example temperature and rainfall, into Demographic Health Information Systems (DHIS) in South Africa, and vice versa [ 39 ]. The tremendous potential of integrated weather-health data is, however, constrained by differences in spatial, temporal and quality of these respective data sources. While weather data are recorded hourly and in small geographical units, [ 52 , 53 ] health data are often only available in monthly units and at district level. Analysing climate data at those resolutions results in a considerable loss of information and thus predictive ability. Challenges in collecting health data – often paper-based – means that these data are often of poorer quality than climate data, though deficiencies in climate data are not uncommon in South Africa [ 12 ]. Despite these limitations, combining climate and health data can assist with seasonal forecasting, and early warning systems for infectious diseases and other climate-related conditions.

The Infectious Diseases Early Warning System project (iDEWS) project, involving Southern African and Japanese researchers, aims to advance all these efforts, and to develop early warning system for a wide range of infectious diseases, based on climate predictions [ 54 ]. Such applications have been developed to support malaria programming in the country [ 55 ], where temporal patterns in temperature, rainfall and sea surface temperature can forecast changes in malaria incidence and the geographical expansion of disease outbreaks [ 3 , 56 , 57 ]. Further, as shown in a study in Cape Town, close monitoring of ambient temperature, can predict spikes in incidence of diarrhoeal disease, allowing health services to prepare for rises in admissions and outpatient visits [ 9 ]. Similarly, another study across several provinces noted that anomalous high rainfall precedes outbreaks of Rift Valley fever by one month and that this finding can be used to forewarn epidemics in affected areas of the country [ 58 ].

In addition to applications around infectious diseases, health and climate data are analysed in multiple-risk systems, such as the South African Risk and Vulnerability Atlas (SARVA) [ 59 ]. This spatial database allow for visualisation of the drivers, exposures, vulnerabilities, risks and hazards across different locations. SARVA provides more than just data outputs, however, and has developed a range of practical climate services for the agriculture sector, for example. Additionally, Heat–Health Warning Systems in the country, based on increasingly sophisticated meteorological systems, have long lead-times, and can alert decision-makers and the public of forthcoming extreme heat events, triggering a graded set of pre-specified actions [ 52 , 60 ].

While adaptation is classically defined as the ability to deal with change, it also encompasses the capacity to learn from it. Doing so requires investments in research and analytical systems, especially among public health practitioners. Of concern, a collaboration across several countries, including South Africa, noted that climate change and environmental health, in general, have not been mainstreamed within curricula at medical schools [ 61 ]. The group noted that, given the limited capacity in this area, international assistance maybe required to develop curricula and teaching materials. Other studies in have documented considerable gaps in knowledge on climate change among university students across disciplines and the limited ability of these future leaders to engage with others on the topic [ 62 , 63 ]. Overall, the research outputs by South Africa scientists on climate change has grown (around 600 academic publications in 2015), but only 3%, or about 20, of these publications make reference to health [ 64 ]. Of more concern, a report of the Lancet Countdown on health and climate change group, using a narrower search strategy, located only about 20 papers related to climate change and health in the whole of Africa in 2017, constituting well under 10% of the total 300 such papers worldwide [ 65 ]. Reviews have also noted that little interdisciplinary work between meteorology and health has been done [ 66 ]. But, perhaps most importantly, research investigating the performance of interventions to reduce the health impacts of climate change are largely absent [ 40 , 67 ].

Response to extreme weather events and gradual increments in temperature

We located only 8 studies applicable to this section of the review, limiting our ability to provide a comprehensive analysis on the topic at hand. This section covers disaster preparedness and responses, including of the health system, and the population groups, occupations and housing types most vulnerable to heat exposure.

The government of South Africa has developed Disaster Management Frameworks and a National Disaster Management Centre, [ 25 , 68 ] whose responsibilities include directing the country’s responses to disasters and strengthening cooperation amongst different stakeholders. There are, however, concerns that disaster risk reduction systems operate in isolation from other climate change adaptation initiatives in the country, rather than drawing on the strengths of each group [ 69 ]. While there are robust ‘Heat Health’ warning systems in the country, it appears that actual action plans or responses to heat waves require further development [ 35 , 70 ]. Some steps have been taken to develop these systems in local government areas and the private sector. A case study examining preparedness for flooding in the city of Johannesburg provides useful examples of potential synergies between the health and other sectors, but also notes considerable political barriers to cross-sectoral actions [ 71 ]. Another example of preparedness was noted in a report by a mining company that operates in several parts of the country. The company had developed substantial information, communication and technology capacity for risk assessments, and warning systems for flooding and other climate-related disasters [ 72 ].

Efforts to prepare the health system for extreme weather events or infectious disease outbreaks are hampered by weaknesses in health systems, especially in human resources for health in South Africa [ 28 ]. The recent experiences with the Listeriosis outbreak, the largest and longest lasting epidemic documented worldwide to date, brought these concerns to the fore, in particular the country’s ability to mount a swift and systematic response to disease outbreaks [ 73 ]. There were major challenges in collecting data on patient outcomes during the epidemic, for example, where the mortality status was unknown for as many as 30% of affected patients [ 74 ]. This outbreak and recent extreme weather events present many opportunities for learning. It seems, however, that these learning opportunities are often missed. A review of the responses to droughts in the country over the past century found that there have been few attempts to learn from previous droughts, and that responses to each event were largely developed de novo, rather than shaped by long-term planning and lessons from previous similar events [ 75 ].

Several populations groups and geographical areas in South Africa are especially vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. The Draft National Adaptation Strategy in 2017 and the White Paper of 2011, which presented the South African Government’s strategic vision for an effective climate change response mentions the importance of placing women and other vulnerable groups at the centre of adaptation actions. These documents, however, do not expand on this concept and no evidence was located on the differential effectiveness of adaptation interventions among women in the country, and efforts to specifically tailor adaptation measures accordingly [ 31 ]. This is concerning as many of the health and social burdens in the country are underscored by harmful gender norms, with, for example, the country has one of the highest rates of sexual violence worldwide and a very gendered HIV epidemic [ 76 ]. Few studies were located on adaption in occupational settings, many of which may become ‘moderate to high risk’ workplaces as temperatures rise [ 15 ]. A study in Johannesburg and Upington (where daily maximum temperatures may exceed 40 °C) found that outdoor workers experienced a range of heat-related effects [ 17 ]. These include sunburn, sleeplessness, irritability and exhaustion, leading to difficulty in maintaining work levels and output during very hot weather. Aside from commencing work earlier, during the cooler part of the day, no measures had been taken to protect the workers, who believed that sunglasses, wide-brimmed hats and easier access to drinking water would improve their comfort and productivity. In the mining sector in South Africa, several studies have reported that workers’ comfort and productivity can be raised with interventions such as ventilation cooling [ 77 – 79 ]. Of note, insulation within many hospital buildings has been found wanting, but little had been done to address the problem [ 80 ]. Some hospitals have taken steps to increase use of natural ventilation to adapt to temperature increases and as part of efforts to curb use of air conditioning [ 81 ]. Natural ventilation also reduces transmission of multi-drug-resistant tuberculosis, important as the country has one of the highest rates of tuberculosis worldwide [ 82 ].

Improvements in specific types of housing, especially in informal settlements, could reduce the considerable heat-health impacts of these structures, which include mortality [ 18 , 19 ]. We identified several studies on urban health in South Africa, but these did not extend to documenting the health benefits of energy efficient buildings, green spaces, public transport, car-free zones and active transport [ 71 , 83 , 84 ]. Further, many school classrooms in the country are constructed of prefabricated asbestos sheeting and corrugated iron roofs or made from converted shipping containers. A study in several parts of Johannesburg showed that heat-related symptoms are common in these structures [ 21 ]. The authors postulate that improving these structures would increase comfort for scholars and could raise educational outcomes.

The review sums the body of evidence on climate change adaptation in South Africa. We note that some steps have been taken to develop a multi-pronged strategy that cuts across health and other disciplines, and that helps adapt to the already substantial and future impacts of climate change in the country [ 42 , 85 ]. Such steps are being supported by efforts to build the resilience of vulnerable groups, who have limited ability to adapt to droughts, flooding, changes in biomes and other events [ 84 ]. While key policy frameworks are in place, it is difficult to gauge whether these have been actualized at national and local level. Increased efforts to include civil society advocates, local communities and the private sector may accelerate progress with policy implementation. In South Africa, highly-detailed data are available on weather conditions at very fine spatial and temporal resolution. Health data generally have lower resolution and quality. Additional spatial and temporal disaggregation of health information could provide invaluable data, for example, to help identify critical heat-stress thresholds in different settings and to monitor the effectiveness of action response plans. In the meantime, more evaluations, including ‘dry runs’ are needed of the health aspects of emergency response plans to extreme weather events [ 60 ]. Gaps were also noted in research infrastructure and in efforts to reduce heat exposures in some housing types and occupational settings.

The case study presented here provides useful perspectives for other countries in sub-Saharan Africa. Most especially, the findings could feed into the work of the Clim-HEALTH Africa network, which aims to share expertise, and to inform climate-sensitive policies and planning across the region [ 86 ]. While the network has already supported the development of several adaptation plans, the evidence presented here may contribute to future iterations of these plans and other network initiatives.

Strategies for extreme events – and indeed for all interventions related to climate change – need to be informed by an analysis of the implications for those living in poverty, migrants, women and children, among other groups. We noted little evidence of specific ‘targeting’ of adaptation responses to vulnerable groups. There may, for example, be benefits to specifically targeting women, as opposed to men, in early warning systems and disaster reduction plans. This approach is supported by evidence that, as with many other social interventions, it is most effective to distribute relief kits and house building grants to women [ 87 ]. In tandem with other adaptation initiatives and targeting, the overall functioning of the health system needs to be fortified, though there is much uncertainty about how this might be done [ 88 , 89 ]. The goal is to ensure that health facilities remain operational during extreme weather events, serve as places of refuge and support, and can summon the additional capacity required to deal with the impacts of extreme events. An external evaluation of the recent response to the Listeriosis outbreak might identify important lessons for improving the response to future outbreaks or extreme weather events. Potential links between climate change and that outbreak as well as future outbreaks also warrant investigation [ 73 ]. The health sector is also responsible for developing and testing heat-health guidelines for specific settings and populations, such as guidelines for sports events, which stipulate the temperature thresholds at which different sport activities should be cancelled.

Going forward, there are many opportunities to strengthen data monitoring and surveillance systems on climate and health. The Lancet Countdown has developed indicators to monitor national-level progress on climate change in the health sector [ 90 ]. Six of these pertain to adaptation and correspond broadly to the sections of this paper: 1. National adaptation plans for health; 2. City-level climate change risk assessments; 3. Detection and early warning of, preparedness for, and response to health emergencies; 4. Climate information services for health; 5. National assessment of vulnerability, impacts and adaptation for health; and 6. Climate-resilient health infrastructure. This paper suggests that additional work is required in each of these areas in South Africa. These indicators – and the full Lancet Countdown framework – could be used to benchmark the country’s progress against other nations and to pinpoint the specific areas requiring attention [ 91 ]. Monitoring data could be used to produce annual estimates of the burden of disease and health costs that would be averted by more vigorous climate change mitigation or adaptation efforts [ 92 ]. Such disease prediction models have been used with great effect in the HIV epidemic [ 93 ], where they generated considerable pressure on the government and international donors to prioritise actions and resource allocations accordingly. Additionally, given the vulnerabilities of food security to climate change in South Africa, close monitoring is needed of under-nutrition, agriculture and marine productivity [ 14 , 94 ].

An adequate adaptation response is contingent on the progressive accrual of robust evidence. This, in turn, depends on earmarked funding for research on climate change and health, agile and responsive research systems and, indeed, an adequate number of capacitated researchers. Given the growing attention paid to this field, high-quality evidence with compelling findings could rapidly foment policy changes. Moreover, if the quality and volume of research were raised, it will become possible to make evidence-based national policies, as in other health fields. The health sector in South Africa, with its considerable research capacity, is well placed to lead such efforts. To achieve this, however, researchers in other health fields, such as HIV, for example, would need to take on projects on climate change. As a first step, it may be useful to convene consultations of experts in health, the environment and related fields to develop broad plans for taking advantage of opportunities for cross-learning and action. Some targeted research funding for joint health and environmental projects on climate change could have a considerable impact. The iDEWS project offers an important example of such an initiative [ 54 ]. In the long run, research in this field could be sustained by allocating more time to climate change topics in training programmes for health workers and public health practitioners.

While the review highlights some important findings, the limited number of papers located suggests that the country has some way to go to fulfilling its potential leadership role on the continent, and indeed globally. One area that health practitioners in South Africa could lead on is the promotion of a ‘meat tax’, given their pioneering work on the ‘sugar tax’ [ 95 ]. Curbing the intake of ruminant meat is a key climate change mitigation strategy and would lower cancer risks, among other health benefits [ 96 ]. This is important in South Africa, where an estimated total of 875,000 tons of beef are consumed annually [ 97 ], producing 648 gigagrams of methane [ 98 ]. The principal arguments for a sugar tax – and indeed for tobacco and alcohol taxes – hold for ruminant meat: harm to self and others, and the considerable cost burdens on broader society [ 99 ]. In this case, the harms are mediated through environmental destruction, a change in climate and cancer, amongst others [ 95 ]. Such policies are, however, likely to be vigorously opposed by the meat industry in South Africa, and public health and environmental and social justice experts in the country will need to rally together [ 26 ]. Bringing together the complementary skills of these experts has the potential for powerful synergies and for drawing additional researchers into the climate change and health arena. Similarly, broadening the scope of climate change adaptation to encompass existing programmes that have an indirect impact on climate change adaptation would also increase the number of climate adaption workers. This would also assist in mainstreaming climate change into existing health programmes, and highlight additional ways that the health sector has successfully responded to the problem. Increased attention to these successes might demonstrate the extent to which the sector is leading the field and its potential contribution to overall adaptation efforts in the country.

The study has some limitations. The limited number of papers included in the review ( n  = 22) and the heterogeneous nature of the evidence constrained our ability to draw overall conclusions about the adaption response to date. Likely many additional studies on the topic are published in grey literature sources or unpublished and would thus not be in our search. Moreover, the search would not have located studies of interventions by the health sector that indirectly reduce the impact of climate change, but have not been framed as such. These intervention may include socio-economic initiatives that build financial resilience of households, improvements in housing and control of infectious diseases.

In fact, explicitly framing existing programmes that have an indirect impact on climate change adaptation as contributing to climate change adaptation.

The review highlights several important gaps in adaptation practices. While policy and planning frameworks for climate change at national, provincial and local level do make mention of health priorities, the health sector does not yet appear to be viewed as an essential platform for adaption measures, and health concerns appear to be accorded low priority. We did, however, note several important examples of health sector involvement in adaptation initiatives within local area government and in occupational settings. Importantly, there have been few rigorous evaluations of the effectiveness of actual interventions on climate adaptation for the health sector; most studies are descriptive in nature. Perhaps the largest knowledge gap is evidence around the effectiveness of disaster management systems and the level of preparedness of these systems for extreme weather events. The lack of studies on that and other topics may reflect the nascent nature of the field and that the priority given to climate-sensitive conditions in training for health workers and public health practitioners has not reflected the present and future burden of these conditions.

Clearly, interventions targeting the direct impacts of climate change need to occur in tandem with actions to shore up the resilience of the population and health system. Many health sector initiatives targeting those areas already contribute to climate adaptation, albeit indirectly so. Highlighting the successes of these initiatives and explicitly framing them as part of climate adaptation could mainstream climate change into existing programmes and provide examples of the ways in which the country is already successfully responding to the problem. Reframing in this manner may generate the leadership and momentum necessary for making rapid advances in this field.

Indeed, increased health sector leadership and lobbying may prove pivotal in advancing the adaptation field per se. The explicit framing of climate change adaptation and mitigation as critical to protecting the health of the nation may secure a more vigorous policy and programmatic response by government, and strengthen the engagement of civil society and communities [ 36 ]. Health could be placed firmly at the centre of policies for climate change adaptation and mitigation. Equally, effective leadership would mainstream climate change considerations into all policies for health [ 37 ]. High-quality research, involving a range of disciplines and backed by local and international funding, could go a long way to securing these changes.

While the country has led the way globally in HIV and several other arenas, it has yet to fully assume a leadership role in this field. With increased focus, the health sector could use its considerable influence to advocate for policy change and improved climate governance: it’s time for health to take a lead.

Acknowledgements

Neville Sweijd, Helen Rees, Fiona Scorgie for technical inputs.

This research received no external funding.

Availability of data and materials

Abbreviations, authors’ contributions.

MFC conceptualized the article and wrote the first draft. CW contributed to writing the drafts of the paper and provided critical review of each draft. Both authors read and approved the final manuscript.

Ethics approval and consent to participate

Not applicable as it is a review

Consent for publication

Competing interests.

The authors declare that they have no competing interests.

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