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The Green Economy Has a Resource-Scarcity Problem

• David Young,
• Rich Hutchinson,
• Martin Reeves

By anticipating bottlenecks in the raw materials necessary to produce environmentally conscious products, companies can effectively evolve their business models.

The world is at a tipping point on sustainability. Investors are increasing their focus on ESG, consumers are demanding transparency and accountability, governments are setting legally binding targets, and companies are stepping up with bold commitments. But new solutions will inevitably trigger bottlenecks for the very resources, infrastructures, and capabilities upon which they depend. While the supply of these sustainability-related resources will expand due to investment and innovation, in many categories rapid growth in demand will likely outstrip supply, heightening competition and pushing up prices. Forward-thinking companies will move swiftly, mapping out a plan for delivering on its promises, securing the required inputs, and capturing the value that new sustainable business models offer.

The sustainability race is on. Corporations, investors, and governments worldwide have made ambitious commitments to reduce their operations’ negative environmental and social impacts.

• DY David Young is a managing director and a senior partner at Boston Consulting Group and a Henderson Institute fellow.
• RH Rich Hutchinson is a managing director and senior partner with BCG Atlanta.
• Martin Reeves is the chairman of Boston Consulting Group’s BCG Henderson Institute in San Francisco and a coauthor of The Imagination Machine (Harvard Business Review Press, 2021).

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Indicators of natural resource scarcity: review, synthesis, and application to US agriculture

Cite this chapter.

• Cutler J. Cleveland 3 &
• David I. Stern 4  

Part of the book series: Economy & Environment ((ECEN,volume 15))

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An increase in natural resource scarcity is defined as a reduction in economic well-being due to a decline in the quality, availability or productivity of natural resources. Simple in concept, the measurement of natural resource scarcity is the subject of significant debate about which of the alternative indicators of scarcity, such as unit costs, prices, rents, elasticities of substitution, and energy costs is superior (e.g. Brown and Field, 1979; Fisher, 1979; Hall and Hall, 1984; Cairns, 1990; Cleveland and Stern, 1993). Most neoclassical economists argue that, in theory, price is the ideal measure of scarcity (e.g. Fisher, 1979) though some argue in favour of rents (Brown and Field, 1979; Farzin, 1995). Barnett and Morse (1963) developed the unit cost indicator from their reading of Ricardo as an alternative to the neoclassical indicators. Some ecological economists favour a biophysical model of scarcity and derive energy-based indicators (e.g. Cleveland et al ., 1984; Hall et al ., 1986; Cleveland, 1991a, 1992; Ruth, 1995).

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Cleveland, C.J., Stern, D.I. (1998). Indicators of natural resource scarcity: review, synthesis, and application to US agriculture. In: van den Bergh, J.C.J.M., Hofkes, M.W. (eds) Theory and Implementation of Economic Models for Sustainable Development. Economy & Environment, vol 15. Springer, Dordrecht. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-94-017-3511-7_6

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Scarcity in economics

Definition: Scarcity refers to resources being finite and limited. Scarcity means we have to decide how and what to produce from these limited resources. It means there is a constant opportunity cost involved in making economic decisions. Scarcity is one of the fundamental issues in economics.

Examples of scarcity

• Land – a shortage of fertile land for populations to grow food. For example, the desertification of the Sahara is causing a decline in land useful for farming in Sub-Saharan African countries.
• Water scarcity – Global warming and changing weather, has caused some parts of the world to become drier and rivers to dry up. This has led to a shortage of drinking water for both humans and animals.
• Labour shortages . In the post-war period, the UK experienced labour shortages – insufficient workers to fill jobs, such as bus drivers. In more recent years, shortages have been focused on particular skilled areas, such as nursing, doctors and engineers
• Health care shortages . In any health care system, there are limits on the available supply of doctors and hospital beds. This causes waiting lists for certain operations.
• Seasonal shortages. If there is a surge in demand for a popular Christmas present, it can cause temporary shortages as demand as greater than supply and it takes time to provide.
• Fixed supply of roads . Many city centres experience congestion – there is a shortage of road space compared to number of road users. There is a scarcity of available land to build new roads or railways.

How does the free market solve the problem of scarcity?

If we take a good like oil. The reserves of oil are limited; there is a scarcity of the raw material. As we use up oil reserves, the supply of oil will start to fall.

Diagram of fall in supply of oil

If there is a scarcity of a good the supply will be falling, and this causes the price to rise. In a free market, this rising price acts as a signal and therefore demand for the good falls (movement along the demand curve). Also, the higher price of the good provides incentives for firms to:

• Look for alternative sources of the good e.g. new supplies of oil from the Antarctic.
• Look for alternatives to oil, e.g. solar panel cars.
• If we were unable to find alternatives to oil, then we would have to respond by using less transport. People would cut back on transatlantic flights and make fewer trips.

Demand over time

In the short-term, demand is price inelastic. People with petrol cars, need to keep buying petrol. However, over time, people may buy electric cars or bicycles, therefore, the demand for petrol falls. Demand is more price elastic over time.

Therefore, in a free market, there are incentives for the market mechanisms to deal with the issue of scarcity.

Causes of scarcity

Scarcity can be due to both

• Demand-induced scarcity
• Supply-induced scarcity

and a combination of the two. See more at: Causes of scarcity.

Scarcity and potential market failure

With scarcity, there is a potential for market failure. For example, firms may not think about the future until it is too late. Therefore, when the good becomes scarce, there might not be any practical alternative that has been developed.

Another problem with the free market is that since goods are rationed by price, there may be a danger that some people cannot afford to buy certain goods; they have limited income. Therefore, economics is also concerned with the redistribution of income to help everyone be able to afford necessities.

Another potential market failure is a scarcity of environmental resources. Decisions we take in this present generation may affect the future availability of resources for future generations. For example, the production of CO2 emissions lead to global warming, rising sea levels, and therefore, future generations will face less available land and a shortage of drinking water.

The problem is that the free market is not factoring in this impact on future resource availability. Production of CO2 has negative externalities, which worsen future scarcity.

Tragedy of the commons

The tragedy of the commons occurs when there is over-grazing of a particular land/field. It can occur in areas such as deep-sea fishing which cause loss of fish stocks. Again the free-market may fail to adequately deal with this scarce resource.

Further reading on Tragedy of the Commons

Quotas and scarcity

One solution to dealing with scarcity is to implement quotas on how much people can buy. An example of this is the rationing system that occurred in the Second World War. Because there was a scarcity of food, the government had strict limits on how much people could get. This was to ensure that even people with low incomes had access to food – a basic necessity.

A problem of quotas is that it can lead to a black market; for some goods, people are willing to pay high amounts to get extra food. Therefore, it can be difficult to police a rationing system. But, it was a necessary policy for the second world war.

Related pages

• Opportunity cost
• Production possibility frontiers
• Is economics irrelevant in the absence of scarcity?
• Dealing with food scarcity

12 thoughts on “Scarcity in economics”

• Pingback: Is Economics Irrelevant in Absence of Scarcity? | Economics Help

Good from what are you doing but you have to provide to us some of sample questions concerning the University level

l want to be explained further on scarcity as it is becoming hard topic for me to understand

When we even make a choice we have to forgo the other alternative.The alternative forgone in making am informed choice is also known as oppotunity

I really learned a lot in this website, thank you very much I appreciate

I want my text book explanation of social subject

Actually, I don’t understand about the entrepreneurship.. Can you please help me?.. I’m a senior high student for the upcoming school year..and We don’t have a actual class so please could you help me to understand this?😅

Thank you so much its clear

This makes some sense but the graphs just messed my head up pls help

I enjoyed the nature of information

The only “problem” with the free market is when it is interfered with. It is a natural process, by interfering with it you are indirectly interfering with nature. Everything on our planet is finite, everything has to be paid for. Every action has an equal and opposite reaction. The is no free lunch. Interfering with the free market is like kicking a can down the road, it may seem just and righteous in the instant, but it is by no means sustainable ultimately over time.

Thank you so much

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What Is Scarcity?

Production and demand.

• Natural Resource Scarcity

Scarcity and the Market

The bottom line.

Scarcity is an economic concept where individuals must allocate limited resources to satisfy their needs. Scarcity occurs when demand for a good or service is greater than availability. Scarcity affects the monetary value individuals place on goods and services.

Key Takeaways

• Scarcity is an economic concept where individuals must allocate limited resources to satisfy their needs.
• Scarcity limits the choices available to consumers in an economy.
• Some natural resources that are easily and widely accessible eventually prove scarce as they are depleted from overuse.
• Scarcity affects the monetary value individuals place on goods and services.

Investopedia / Mira Norian

If goods and services are abundant and unlimited, there is no need to make decisions about allocating resources. However, scarcity limits the choices available to consumers in an economy. Scarcity makes goods more valuable and sellers can set higher prices. 

Scarcity also describes the relative availability of factors or production or economic inputs. Suppose producing a widget requires two labor inputs: workers and managers, with one manager required per 20 workers. The available labor pool consists of 20,000 workers and 5,000 managers. There are more available workers than managers. Yet, workers are a relatively scarce resource, since they're needed for a ratio of 20 per manager for production, but outnumber managers by a ratio of only 4 to 1 in the labor pool.

Societies face limitations when trying to increase supply. Production capacity, land available for use, time, and labor are all considerations. Another way to deal with scarcity is by reducing demand through quotas , rationing , or price caps .

Scarcity forces consumers to make choices that come with associated opportunity costs . Opportunity cost is the cost of what is given up, compared to the value of the alternative.

Natural Resource Scarcity

Abundant common resources over-consumed at zero cost at first often prove limited. Climate isn't a tangible asset and its value is hard to calculate, but the costs of climate change affect companies and societies. Air is free, but clean air has a cost in terms of the economic activity discouraged to prevent pollution for health and quality of life .

Some natural resources that may appear free because they are easily and widely accessible eventually prove scarce as they are depleted from overuse in a tragedy of the commons . Economists increasingly view a climate compatible with human welfare as scarce goods because of the cost of protecting them and place a price on them for a cost-benefit analysis .

Governments may require manufacturers and utilities to invest in pollution control equipment, or to adopt cleaner power sources. Governments and the regulated industries eventually pass costs to taxpayers and consumers.

Scarcity may denote a change in a market equilibrium raising the price based on the law of supply and demand . In those instances, scarcity denotes a decrease over time in the supply of the product or commodity relative to demand. The growing scarcity reflected in the higher price required to attain a market equilibrium could be attributable to one or more of the following:

• Demand-induced scarcity reflects rising demand
• Supply-induced scarcity caused by diminished supply
• Structural scarcity attributable to mismanagement or inequality

Does Scarcity Mean Something Is Hard to Obtain?

Scarcity can explain a market shift to a higher price, compare the availability of economic inputs, or convey the opportunity cost in allocating limited resources. The definition of a market price is one at which supply equals demand, meaning all those willing to obtain the resource at a market price can do so. Scarcity can explain a market shift to a higher price, compare the availability of economic inputs, or convey the opportunity cost in allocating limited resources.

When Is Scarcity Intentionally Created?

This article is free to read and other content is easily reproduced intellectual property , including films and music, but may derive their scarcity from copyright protection . Inventors of new drugs and devices must secure patents to deter imitators. Many free goods may have an indirect or hidden cost .

How Does Monetary Policy Affect Scarcity?

In the U.S., the Federal Reserve controls the money supply. When governments print too much money, the value of the money decreases. Supply is high and money is less scarce. However, too much money in an economy can lead to inflation. Governments tend to keep the money supply relatively scarce through contractionary policy. The main contractionary policies employed by the United States include raising interest rates, increasing bank reserve requirements, and selling government securities.

When individuals must allocate limited resources to satisfy their needs, scarcity occurs. Scarcity limits the choices of consumers in an economy. Scarcity can affect a country's money supply, natural resources, available labor, and means of production.

ScienceDirect. " Population and Technological Change in Agriculture ."

SSRN. " Relative Prices and Climate Policy: How the Scarcity of Non-Market Goods Drives Policy Evaluation ."

Energy & Climate Intelligence Unit. “ Climate Economics - Costs and Benefits .”

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Identifying Resource Scarcities in the Race to Sustainability

October 29, 2021  By  David Young and  Simon Beck

• The current supply of raw materials is less than one-third of what will be required to meet battery demand in 2030.
• The net supply of carbon credits coming onto the market will fall short of demand by 300 million metric tons of carbon dioxide equivalent in 2030.
• The production of tree seedlings in the US will need to increase 2.4-fold to keep up with demand for reforestation and carbon offsets.

Sustainability commitments have skyrocketed in recent years, but there’s a growing problem. In certain sectors, the demand for sustainability-related resources will soon outstrip the supply.

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In the past year, sustainability commitments have gone mainstream. Hundreds of corporations have publicly taken a stand on net-zero emissions, some of the world’s largest asset managers are calling on companies to align with the net-zero economy, and the upcoming COP26 summit will undoubtedly spark even greater sustainability commitments from the public sector that will have ramifications for businesses.

While this surge of commitments is clearly a boon for the global community, there is a problem . As companies race to fulfill their sustainability commitments , they may quickly find that much-needed resources, infrastructures, and capabilities are not readily available. In the coming years, we anticipate periods during which demand for the inputs to sustainable solutions will surpass supply—creating troubling scarcities of resources.

To ensure access to critical resources, leaders must move quickly. Companies that can identify novel ways to address their scarcity issues will mitigate risk, build resilience, and capture economic premiums. Scarcity advantage will help determine the winners in the race to sustainability.

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For example, the current extraction of raw materials is less than one-third of what will be required to meet battery demand in 2030; BCG analysis suggests that the net supply of carbon credits coming onto the market will fall short of demand by 300 million metric tons of carbon dioxide equivalent in 2030; and industry experts estimate that the production of tree seedlings in the US will need to increase 2.4-fold to keep up with demand for reforestation and carbon offsets.

In this article, we highlight the dynamic factors that businesses must examine to determine where, when, and how significant scarcities will emerge. With these insights, companies can not only mitigate business risks but also capture new opportunities to innovate and drive forward the green economy.

Identify Risks, Bottlenecks, and Scarcities

To identify potential business risks, bottlenecks, and scarcities, companies must first expand the business canvas by mapping the wider socioeconomic ecosystem of stakeholders and societal issues in which the business operates. This involves mapping out the full set of players in the system—and their value chains. The goal is to identify key inputs, including the goods (such as raw materials, manufacturing tools, and storage facilities) and services (such as expertise and critical capabilities) that are likely to face a surge in demand.

• A Tectonic Shift of Capital Is Just Beginning: Insights from Larry Fink
• The Green Economy Has a Resource-Scarcity Problem
• Four Steps to Sustainable Business Model Innovation
• The Quest for Sustainable Business Model Innovation

Next, companies must stress-test the business model to understand where rapid changes in demand, driven by environmental and societal trends, will create critical shortages in the system—and therefore vulnerabilities to the business. A company should simulate an increase in demand for sustainable resources or products, based on actual projections, to anticipate effects on the ecosystem and the business model. If demand for a particular input increased by a factor of ten, could the company still easily acquire it? Would this create pressure on the value chain? Are critical inputs in the ecosystem also important to other industries and ecosystems? For example, graphite is essential for scaling up green hydrogen, but it is also a critical input for scaling up electric vehicles, so it’s critical to stay on top of emerging trends across industries that may be competing for the same sustainable resources.

Using this approach, companies can identify strategic intervention points at which targeted action or innovation can alter stakeholder dynamics, positively impact environmental or societal issues, reduce vulnerabilities within the business model, and create new business opportunities.

Understand Which Scarcities Will Affect Your Sustainable Business Strategy

After identifying potential scarcities, companies can then assess the risk and materiality of each potential scarcity by analyzing ten dynamic factors. (See the exhibit.)

Our approach analyzes how the actors within the wider socioeconomic system—and the dynamics among them—create or alleviate sustainability scarcity. The system actors are organizations or groups whose actions and strategies will affect the availability of sustainable resources. This includes investors, industry players, suppliers, value chain participants, the public, customers, and regulators. System dynamics come into play when individual actors make unilateral or multilateral decisions that affect the entire system. For example, if regulators respond to an emerging scarcity by adjusting regulations and policies, this may increase the flow of capital toward a particular resource scarcity or boost the viability of alternative resources or production processes, thereby relieving scarcities by changing the underlying economics. Regulators are more likely to intervene if they believe that the risk of shortages is high enough that it should not be left purely to market forces. For example, governments have identified certain commodities, such as lithium, as essential to national security and the green transition.

By evaluating each segment of the wheel (as depicted in the exhibit), leaders can grasp which scarcities will be the most problematic, which will be most relevant for their business or their customers, and which will create the biggest competitive advantage—and act accordingly.

Understand the Wider System Dynamics That Create Resource Scarcities

We have identified ten dynamic factors that companies can analyze to evaluate the business impact of potential scarcities in sustainable resources, infrastructures, and capabilities—and to support their quest for sustainable business model innovation .

• Determine the exact nature of the scarcity.
• Quantify the gap between supply and demand under various scenarios.
• Determine when the scarcity will emerge—and how long it will last.
• Evaluate the effect of economic premiums and pricing fluctuation.
• Understand the market and ecosystem structure.
• Calculate the viability of alternatives to the scarce resources.
• Track the flow of capital to reduce scarcity.
• Examine the evolving geographical, geopolitical, and cultural contexts.
• Anticipate the effects of regulatory frameworks and policy incentives.
• Evaluate the business risks of inaction.

Determine the exact nature of the scarcity. Scarcities come in many shapes and sizes. There may be a shortage of raw material (like lithium or cobalt), a limitation in current production methods (as in sustainably produced cotton), a problem with scaling up quickly, a shortage of expertise or talent, or an underdeveloped infrastructure. It’s essential to pinpoint the exact source of the scarcity problem so that you can respond appropriately.

For example, large-scale reforestation is required to help countries combat climate change. A recent study found that the US is already short more than two billion seedlings per year—and that’s just to meet 50% of the country’s reforestation goals by 2040. One of the challenges is accessing skilled labor. Very few people know how to collect seeds, and those who do are in high demand. The US also faces a shortage of workers who know how to process seeds, nurse seedlings, replant trees, and maintain forests. So the nature of the scarcity, in this case, is not just a production problem. It’s also about the underlying talent and skills needed to scale production. The Biden Administration’s Civilian Climate Corps offers one example of the way the US is attempting to bridge this talent gap by training a new generation in climate-related public-works projects, including reforestation.

Quantify the gap between supply and demand under various scenarios. As the sustainability movement accelerates, supply and demand patterns will change. Companies need to understand where demand will increase—and where it will decrease—within their own ecosystem and in adjacent ecosystems. This requires a dynamic systems perspective because the demand for any single resource may rise and fall at the same time, depending on context.

For example, the global platinum supply has been at a deficit for the past three years, but future supply and demand issues are complicated. Demand for platinum is expected to rise as the transition to clean energy and green hydrogen ramps up, given that the element is a key input for hydrogen electrolyzers and hydrogen fuel cells. At the same time, as clean mobility gains traction and fuels the transition from internal combustion engines to electric vehicles, the demand for platinum in catalytic converters will decline. When quantifying the supply-demand gap, companies must account for such opposing market forces.

Determine when the scarcity will emerge—and how long it will last. By understanding when a scarcity will emerge and how long it will last, companies can manage economic premiums and operational constraints, identify the alternatives that could arise to fill the gap, and arbitrage options across different geographies. They can also identify opportunities for acquisition and investment. The key is to move quickly while multiple options still exist. Companies should run scenarios on the duration of each scarcity and develop a clear strategy. From the standpoint of operational resilience, a short and severe bottleneck may be tolerable with limited action, but a prolonged shortage presents serious operational and financial risks if it’s not addressed in a timely manner.

BCG analysis suggests that demand for carbon credits will begin outpacing supply by 2024. Even in a conservative scenario, the net supply of credits coming onto the market will fall short of supply by 300 million metric tons of carbon dioxide equivalent in 2030, according to our analysis. This deficit over the next decade could have a significant impact on companies’ ability to achieve their net-zero commitments, particularly those aimed at a 2030 horizon.

Evaluate the effect of economic premiums and pricing fluctuation. When a scarcity arises, companies will likely need to pay a premium for the resources in short supply. By understanding which resources will be in short supply and recognizing whether competitors are in a good position to pay a premium for that resource, companies can assess their risk and adjust the business model accordingly. What’s more, if a resource scarcity leads to high economic premiums, it can trigger a flow of capital toward alternative technologies that are more economically viable. Companies must anticipate these types of shifts.

Take battery-grade lithium for example. It has experienced significant price volatility over the past few years, but as demand from EVs and stationary energy storage rapidly increases, industry experts are warning of “perpetual deficits.” Although price forecasts vary significantly, Fitch Solutions notes that “green lithium,” which is sourced through more sustainable practices (using lower carbon intensity and lower water usage), will sell at a premium compared with conventional mining approaches. Bolstering this forecast, the EU’s regulations will require EVs and industrial batteries to have a declared carbon footprint beginning in July 2024.

Understand the market and ecosystem structure. The structure of the value chain, markets, and the broader ecosystem has a significant bearing on how quickly companies can respond to scarcity issues. A highly fragmented ecosystem with multiple players and varying regulatory frameworks will be much more difficult to navigate than a concentrated value chain. Companies should conduct a comprehensive survey of their value chain, not only to identify potential bottlenecks and mitigate shortages but also to make the supply chain more resilient.

Consider the challenges in scaling production of sustainable palm oil. In 2020, the Consumer Goods Forum (CGF) launched the “Forest Positive Coalition of Action,” a CEO-led initiative representing 20 CGF member companies who are committed to removing deforestation, forest degradation, and conversion from key commodity supply chains, including that of palm oil. Previous attempts to achieve net-zero deforestation targets with sustainable palm oil have been challenging, in part because small farmers account for 40% of palm oil production. This means large palm oil suppliers need to convince millions of small farmers to change their agricultural practices. With this market structure, it can be very difficult to systematically achieve sustainability targets.

Calculate the viability of alternatives to the scarce resources. Once companies grasp the fundamental nature of a scarcity and its significance, the next step is to evaluate the technical and economic viability of alternatives. The need for innovative alternatives is especially pronounced when it comes to limitations on raw materials because this type of scarcity cannot be solved by investing in and scaling up production or shifting to new production methods. If the scarcity is expected to last a long time or create a significant supply-demand gap, an entirely new solution that eliminates the need for the scarce resource may be needed. For each scenario, companies must understand where to invest to ensure access to critical resources.

For example, current battery manufacturing processes rely heavily on pure, high-quality graphite, but extracting high-quality graphite is challenging, and recycling at scale is not yet a well-established practice. Additionally, a great deal of waste occurs during EV battery manufacturing; approximately 30 times more graphite is required to make a battery than is present in the final product. Companies like Tesla and Unifrax are experimenting with alternatives such as silicon anodes to significantly reduce the need for graphite in EV batteries. As technology advances, silicon anodes may entirely replace the need for graphite.

Track the flow of capital to reduce scarcity. The amount of capital directed toward scarce resources signals how long a shortage may last and how severe it might be. The more capital that is deployed to address the scarcity, the higher the likelihood is that production will ramp up quickly or new alternatives will be developed. Lower levels of investment indicate that companies may face more difficult obstacles in resolving the scarcity. By tracking the flow of capital, companies can see where and how shortages are being addressed and find the best path forward to secure the sustainable resources they need.

For example, according to the World Energy Outlook 2020 report, more than $3 trillion in investment will be needed between now and 2050 to scale up carbon capture, utilization, and storage (CCUS) infrastructure. Oil giants, multinational corporations, governments, and multilateral organizations are all investing in the CCUS economy, but the investments are falling far short of what’s needed. In 2020, Europe, the Middle East, and Africa invested just $2 billion in CCUS. Unless large, transformative investments are made soon, CCUS capacity will not meet the demand.

Examine the evolving geographical, geopolitical, and cultural contexts. Some scarcities occur within a specific context owing to changing government regulations, export restrictions, natural disasters, or geopolitical turmoil in a resource-rich region. They may also be driven by cultural context, consumer mindsets, and global demand trends. Companies must recognize the short-term and long-term effects of these potential disruptions and changes and make the moves necessary to alleviate or capitalize on any constraints—or create advantage by actively managing the different supply and pricing dynamics for sustainability scarcities across various geographies.

Again, sustainable palm oil offers a useful example. In some emerging markets, the demand for products containing palm oil is growing quickly; however, efforts to shift consumer preferences and promote the use of certified sustainable palm oil in these markets are still nascent.

Anticipate the effects of regulatory frameworks and policy incentives. Government policy interventions can have a significant effect on sustainability scarcities. Government incentives, subsidies, and direct investment can increase the flow of capital for alternatives to sustainability resources, increasing investment, availability, and their economic viability. Over the past two decades, for example, government tax incentives have increased investment in wind turbine technology and production capacity in the United States, accelerating adoption of this renewable energy. Companies should develop scenarios on possible regulatory changes—and strategize ways to manage disruptions or capitalize on potential changes.

Looking ahead, the worldwide lithium-battery market, for example, is expected to grow by a factor of five to ten in the next decade. In response to this vast increase in market demand, the US Department of Energy released a “National Blueprint for Lithium Batteries” in June 2021. The blueprint guides investment in a domestic lithium-battery manufacturing value chain to ensure that US companies benefit from domestic and global market growth and avoid the risk of “long-term dependence on foreign sources of batteries and critical materials.” Companies that can capitalize on government investments can gain a strong competitive advantage in this fast-growing global market.

Evaluate the business risks of inaction. Sustainability can be a source of competitive advantage, and, when devising a company strategy, it’s important to understand how competitors are pursuing sustainability. As more and more companies pledge net-zero commitments, for example, a certain subset will inevitably fall short of their targets. When these companies scramble to meet their goals, the scarcity of sustainable resources will worsen, ramping up risk for companies unprepared for these changing dynamics. Inaction can present obvious operational risks (you can’t access the talent you need to fulfill a sustainability commitment) and financial risks (you will be fined for using unsustainable resources). But the risks aren’t always so clear cut (you miss sustainability targets and draw negative press coverage, but this doesn’t harm sales or investor sentiment).

Historically, companies that fall short of sustainability targets have not faced serious repercussions, but the risk is growing now that broader accountability mechanisms exist for investors, consumers, and regulators. Running cost-benefit scenarios reveals the true cost of not taking action to address sustainability scarcities.

For companies to meet—or even exceed—their sustainability goals, they must continuously monitor the sustainability landscape. The ten-factor analysis described here offers a clear view into the ways that various actors across all industries and geographies will affect availability of the resources necessary to achieve sustainability commitments.

Time is of the essence. Sustainability commitments are surging, but sustainability-related resources are in limited supply. Companies that continuously scan their ecosystems for sustainability scarcities will be prepared to circumvent shortages—or capitalize on them—and unlock new opportunities for long-term growth and competitive advantage.

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Resource Scarcity

Last updated 28 Aug 2020

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The concept of resource scarcity is explored in this short revision video. We focus on water scarcity and water stress.

What is resource scarcity?

Resource scarcity is essentially about current demand for a resource exceeding available supply. But what matters is that this scarcity has potentially huge implications for how we lead our lives and the economic prosperity of communities, countries and regions.

Resource scarcity occurs when demand for a natural resource is greater than the available supply – leading to a decline in the stock of available resources. This can lead to unsustainable growth and a rise in inequality as prices rise making the resource less affordable for those who are least well-off.

Students introducing themselves to economics will become familiar with the different types of factor inputs available to produce (supply) goods and services. These are summarised in this graphic.

At the heart of many economic issues is this point: The economic problem involves decisions about how to make the best use of limited (scarce) resources when not all wants/needs can be fully satisfied.

What are the underlying causes of growing resource scarcity?

• Demand-induced – High market demand for a scarce resource
• Supply-induced – supply of a resource is running out over time as extraction rates increase
• Structural scarcity – due to mismanagement of the resource which leads to a long-term degradation of the resource
• Absence of effective / affordable substitutes for a scarce resource

Examples of demand-induced scarcity:

• Fast-growing national populations putting pressure on natural resources e.g. water scarcity and water stress in urban areas
• Rising prosperity (shown by higher per capita incomes) leading to increased ownership & use of resource-intensive consumer durables
• Advances in production technologies & economies of scale e.g. which have made mobile devices affordable and adopted globally

Resource scarcity is closely tied to the crucially important issue of sustainable economic growth.

“Damage to ecosystems including forests, grasslands and coral reefs — and the associated loss of biodiversity — could drain nearly $10tn from the global economy by 2050, according to the Global Futures report from the World Wide Fund for Nature (WWF), the conservation group.” (Source: Financial Times, August 2020)

• Resource Scarcity
• Renewable resources
• Finite resources
• Natural Resource Trap
• Common Pool Resources

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Definitions and Basics

Scarcity and Choices , at SocialStudiesforKids.com.

Think of a thing that you like to have. What would your life be like if you suddenly couldn’t get any more of it?… Some fruits and vegetables are scarce in markets sometimes because those fruits or vegetables grow only at certain times of the year. Because the supply of fruits and vegetables is lower, there is a better chance that those fruits and vegetables will be scarce, or not always available. You may find that the market has no strawberries at all. Why? Either no shipments of strawberries came in, or so few strawberries came in that by the time you got there, they were all gone….

Scarcity , at Khan Academy

Scarcity Video and Quiz , at EconEdLink.

David Henderson, TANSTAAFL: There Ain’t No Such Thing as a Free Lunch , at Econlib. March 3, 2014.

What is a scarce resource? You could count the pineapples in Hawaii, the Mercedes Benzes in Beverly Hills, and the steel in South Korea, and you still wouldn’t know whether they are scarce. Here’s how you would know: At a zero price (and not a price set at zero by government regulation or caused to be zero by a government subsidy), is there enough of the good to satisfy everyone’s demands? If not, the good is scarce.

Steven Horwitz, Costs, Cancer, and Making Better Choices , at Econlib. January 7, 2019.

For economists, scarcity means that people can imagine more possible ways in which they can put a good to use than there are goods that can be used. The greater that gap, the more scarce something is.

Competition , from the Concise Encyclopedia of Economics

“Competition,” wrote Samuel Johnson, “is the act of endeavoring to gain what another endeavors to gain at the same time.” We are all familiar with competition—from childhood games, from sporting contests, from trying to get ahead in our jobs. But our firsthand familiarity does not tell us how vitally important competition is to the study of economic life. Competition for scarce resources is the core concept around which all modern economics is built….

In the News and Examples

Is water a scarce resource? How is it priced? Continuing Education: David Zetland on Water provides some discussion prompts to use in conjunction with Zetlands’ EconTalk episode. March 4, 2015.

David Zetland  of Leiden University College in the Netherlands and author of  Living with Water Scarcity  talks with EconTalk host  Russ Roberts  about the challenges of water management. Issues covered include the sustainability of water supplies, the affordability of water for the poor, the incentives water companies face, and the management of water systems in the poorest countries. Also discussed are the diamond and water paradox, campaigns to reduce water usage, and the role of prices in managing a water system.

Natural Resources , from the Concise Encyclopedia of Economics

The earth’s natural resources are finite, which means that if we use them continuously, we will eventually exhaust them….

Or will we? Are  all   natural resources truly finite? See Robert L. Bradley, Resourceship: Expanding ‘Depletable’ Resources , at Econlib.  May 7, 2012.

Mineral resources, not synthetically producible in human time frames, 1  are fixed in the earth. As each is mined, less supply remains, suggesting that cost and, thus, price must increase as production cumulates. Yet, for virtually all minerals, the opposite seems to be true: As more is mined, more is discovered to be mined. Prices and costs do not inexorably rise. What was high-cost yesterday has become lower-cost, undercutting the perennial complaint that “the easy stuff has been found.” Overall, there seems to be little difference between minerals and general goods and services.

Try this online lesson about planning a prom to explore scarcity with students. Scarcity, Choice, and Decisions at TheMint.org.

Your class has been engaged in various fund-raising projects during the past several years, and you now have a total of $9,635 to spend on a big bash – your last school dance. You may not spend more than this amount on the dance, but you do not have to spend all of it on the dance. Any money “left over” can be used for a class project, designed to help your school or community.

A Little History: Primary Sources and References

Lionel Robbins , biography, from the Concise Encyclopedia of Economics

Robbins’ most famous book was An Essay on the Nature and Significance of Economic Science , one of the best-written prose pieces in economics. That book contains three main thoughts. First is Robbins’ famous all-encompassing definition of economics that is still used to define the subject today: “Economics is the science which studies human behavior as a relationship between given ends and scarce means which have alternative uses.”…

Is scarcity  really the “fundamental economic problem?” Nobel laureate James M. Buchanan didn’t think so. See Donald J. Boudreaux,  What Should Economists Do? An Appreciation , at Econlib. March 4, 2019.

For almost 90 years now we economists have been taught from our freshmen days that economics is the study of how to allocate scarce resources, each with multiple possible uses, in ways that satisfy as many human wants as possible… So what  is  economists’ proper subject matter? What  should  we economists do? Buchanan’s answer is that we should study the entire universe of voluntary exchange.

Advanced Resources

They Clapped: Can Price-Gouging Laws Prohibit Scarcity? by Michael Munger. Econlib, January 8, 2007.

Hurricane “Fran” smashed into the North Carolina coastline at Cape Fear at about 8:30 pm, 5 September 1996. It was a category 3, with 120 mph winds, and enormous rain bands. It ran nearly due north, hitting the state capital of Raleigh about 3 am, and moving north and east out of the state by morning…. There were no generators, ice, or chain saws to be had, none. But that means that anyone who brought these commodities into the crippled city, and charged less than infinity, would be doing us a service….

Resourceship: Expanding ‘Depletable’ Resources , by Robert L. Bradley. Econlib, May 7, 2012.

“[Economic theory is] plainly inadequate for an industry in which the indefinite maintenance of a steady rate of production is a physical impossibility, and which is therefore bound to decline,” wrote Harold Hotelling in 1931 in the most cited article in the history of mineral economics.2 Yet today, over eighty years later, Hotelling’s static, formalistic framework has some real-world explaining to do.

Related Topics

Decision Making and Cost-Benefit Analysis

Productive Resources

Property Rights

Desalination: What is it and how can it help tackle water scarcity?

A natural resources crisis like water scarcity is listed in the World Economic Forum’s 2024 Global Risks Report, as one of the top-10 threats facing the world in the next decade. Image:  Unsplash/Nathan Dumlao

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Stay up to date:, food and water.

This article was originally published on 12 March 2024 and updated on 15 April 2024

• Desalination increases access to safe, clean drinking water, but the process is energy-intensive and costly.
• Innovations are harnessing wave power and other forms of energy capture to reduce reliance on fossil fuels and curb emissions from desalination.
• A natural resources crisis is one of the leading global long-term threats, according to the World Economic Forum’s 2024 Global Risks Report.

Billions of people turn on a tap and expect clean drinking water to flow out, but this is not the reality for billions of others.

Rapid population growth, urbanization and increased global water consumption by agriculture, industry and energy have left a growing number of countries facing the threat of water scarcity.

One solution to meet the growing demand for freshwater is desalination, which involves removing the salt from seawater to produce drinking water. While this process alone can’t prevent a global water crisis, it can play a vital role in providing more people around the world with access to clean, safe drinking water.

Have you read?

25 countries face extremely high water stress, study finds, this new desalination system is inspired by the ocean and powered by the sun, how technology and entrepreneurship can quench our parched world, a future water crisis.

Water scarcity occurs when water demand outstrips available supply during a specific period – when water infrastructure is inadequate or institutions fail to balance people’s needs.

In 2022, 2.2 billion people lacked safely managed drinking water , including more than 700 million people living without a basic water service, according to the United Nations.

By 2030, there could be a 40% global shortfall in freshwater resources, which combined with world population growth that’s set to increase from 8 billion today to 9.7 billion by 2050 , would leave the world facing an extreme water crisis.

Sub-Saharan Africa is expected to see the biggest change in water demand, with a projected 163% increase by mid-century, World Resources Institute data shows. This is four times the expected rate of change in Latin America, the second-highest region.

Almost two-thirds of the planet’s surface is covered with water, and our oceans hold 96.5% of all water on Earth . However, its salt content makes this water unsuitable for humans to drink. This is where desalination comes in.

Types of desalination

There are a number of different methods of desalination, but most work either by a process of reverse osmosis or multistage flash to remove the salt from seawater .

Reverse osmosis is the more efficient of these two methods. The process uses a special membrane acting as a filter, which blocks and removes salt from seawater as it passes through. Here, powerful pumps generate enough pressure to ensure pure water is extracted.

Multistage flash desalination doesn't use a filter. Instead, saltwater is exposed to steam heat and pressure variations, which causes a portion of the water to evaporate – or "flash" – into water vapour or freshwater, leaving behind salty brine as a by-product.

Water security – both sustainable supply and clean quality – is a critical aspect in ensuring healthy communities. Yet, our world’s water resources are being compromised.

Today, 80% of our wastewater flows untreated back into the environment, while 780 million people still do not have access to an improved water source. By 2030, we may face a 40% global gap between water supply and demand.

The World Economic Forum’s Water Possible Platform is supporting innovative ideas to address the global water challenge.

The Forum supports innovative multi-stakeholder partnerships including the 2030 Water Resources Group , which helps close the gap between global water demand and supply by 2030 and has since helped facilitate $1Billion of investments into water.

Other emerging partnerships include the 50L Home Coalition , which aims to solve the urban water crisis , tackling both water security and climate change; and the Mobilizing Hand Hygiene for All Initiative , formed in response to close the 40% gap of the global population not having access to handwashing services during COVID-19.

Want to join our mission to address the global water challenge? Read more in our impact story .

Both desalination processes create brine containing high salt levels, which can pose a threat to marine ecosystems when released back into natural bodies of water. The output of both methods is clean drinking water. But, in addition to removing salt, the desalination process also removes organic or biological chemical compounds so the water produced doesn’t transmit diarrhoea or other diseases.

Wave-powered innovation

While reverse osmosis plants are more efficient than multistage flash plants, large-scale desalination plants require a lot of energy and maintenance, and are expensive to build and operate.

A number of innovative desalination systems are being developed to try and reduce the energy required to operate them and related emissions.

Oneka, a wave-powered desalination technology, is one such innovation . Floating buoys tethered to the ocean floor use wave power to drive a pump that forces seawater through filters and reverse osmosis membranes. The fresh water is then piped ashore again powered solely by the natural motion of waves, explains Canadian desalination company Oneka Technologies.

The system has several advantages over large-scale shore-based desalination plants that are mostly powered by combusting fossil fuels, but it does require high waves to work.

The small floating units require 90% less coastal land compared with a typical desalination plant, for example, the company says. Relying on emissions-free wave power rather than electricity demands less energy and generates fewer emissions than traditional desalination plants.

" Desalination facilities are conventionally powered by fossil fuels ," Susan Hunt, Chief Innovation Officer at Oneka Technologies, told the BBC. "But the world has certainly reached a pivot point. We want to move away from fossil fuel-powered desalination."

Dragan Tutic, Founder and CEO of Oneka Technologies, added that "our mission is to make the oceans an affordable and sustainable source of water."

Solar – low-cost water purification

Solar power has been used to convert saltwater into fresh drinking water , by researchers from King's College in London in collaboration with MIT and the Helmholtz Institute of Renewable Energy Systems.

A set of specialized membranes channel salt ions into a stream of brine, leaving fresh drinkable water. The system adjusts to variable sunlight without compromising the volume of drinking water produced. The process is 20% cheaper than traditional desalination methods, which could boost efforts to provide drinking water in developing countries, the researchers say.

Dutch start-up Desolenator – supported by Uplink, the innovation platform of the World Economic Forum – is also using solar power for its low-cost water-as-a-service model for communities and businesses .

The technology avoids the use of membranes or harmful chemicals, the company says, and customers can choose specific water types to meet their needs: ultra-pure water, pure potable water or customized re-mineralized water.

Each modular plant can produce up to 250,000 litres of freshwater daily, helping boost water security in water-scarce regions.

" We operate with 100% solar power, no harmful chemicals, and now we're building zero liquid discharge, which will make us the first fully circular solar desalination technology in the world," said Desolenator co-founder Alexei Levene.

"We take our waste brine and turn it into salt, so nothing goes back into the environment. It's a distributed technology that we can deploy and it's going to be the most sustainable desalination approach that there is," he said.

Averting a natural resources crisis

A natural resources crisis like water scarcity is listed in the World Economic Forum’s Global Risks Report 2024 , as one of the top 10 threats facing the world in the next decade.

Currently, desalination plants are used in regions like the Middle East, which has a hot climate alongside a buoyant and technologically able economy. But the energy-intensive nature and high costs of conventional desalination plants act as barriers to widespread take-up, the report says.

However, innovations that reduce the energy needed to operate desalination plants and reduce greenhouse emissions from their operations could change the situation and increase access to fresh drinking water for communities facing water challenges.

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Opinion | NPR suspends an editor for his essay blasting … NPR

The firestorm caused by Uri Berliner’s critical essay in The Free Press continues to rage

When a senior editor at NPR recently wrote a 3,500-word essay for another outlet, blasting where he works and saying that NPR had “lost America’s trust,” my first thought, quite frankly, was, “ … and he still works there?”

Well, it was learned on Tuesday that the editor in question, Uri Berliner, is currently serving a five-day suspension without pay. NPR media writer David Folkenflik reported the suspension began last week. Folkenflik wrote, “In presenting Berliner’s suspension Thursday afternoon, the organization told the editor he had failed to secure its approval for outside work for other news outlets, as is required of NPR journalists. It called the letter a ‘final warning,’ saying Berliner would be fired if he violated NPR’s policy again. Berliner is a dues-paying member of NPR’s newsroom union but says he is not appealing the punishment.”

Berliner, who has been at NPR for 25 years, wrote his scathing essay for the online news site The Free Press, a publication on Substack. Folkenflik described The Free Press as a “site that has become a haven for journalists who believe that mainstream media outlets have become too liberal.”

The suspension does not mean the firestorm created by Berliner’s essay has been suppressed. Folkenflik wrote, “Yet the public radio network is grappling in other ways with the fallout from Berliner’s essay for the online news site The Free Press. It angered many of his colleagues, led NPR leaders to announce monthly internal reviews of the network’s coverage, and gave fresh ammunition to conservative and partisan Republican critics of NPR, including former President Donald Trump.”

The New York Times’ Benjamin Mullin wrote , “After Mr. Berliner’s essay was published, NPR’s new chief executive, Katherine Maher, came under renewed scrutiny as conservative activists resurfaced a series of years-old social media posts criticizing former President Donald J. Trump and embracing progressive causes. One of the activists, Christopher Rufo, has pressured media organizations into covering controversies involving influential figures, such as the plagiarism allegations against Claudine Gay, the former Harvard president.”

Maher was not at NPR at the time of her posts and, furthermore, the CEO has no involvement in editorial decisions at the network.

But Berliner told Folkenflik in an interview on Monday, “We’re looking for a leader right now who’s going to be unifying and bring more people into the tent and have a broader perspective on, sort of, what America is all about. And this seems to be the opposite of that.”

In a statement earlier this week, Maher said, “In America everyone is entitled to free speech as a private citizen. What matters is NPR’s work and my commitment as its CEO: public service, editorial independence, and the mission to serve all of the American public. NPR is independent, beholden to no party, and without commercial interests.”

As far as Berliner’s essay, many, particularly inside NPR, are pushing back against his various assertions, including that NPR has a liberal bias.

Mullin wrote for the Times, “Several NPR employees have urged the network’s leaders to more forcefully renounce Mr. Berliner’s claims in his essay. Edith Chapin, NPR’s top editor, said in a statement last week that managers ‘strongly disagree with Uri’s assessment of the quality of our journalism,’ adding that the network was ‘proud to stand behind’ its work.”

Tony Cavin, NPR’s managing editor for standards and practices, pushed back against specific claims made by Berliner and told the Times, “To somehow think that we were driven by politics is both wrong and unfair.”

NPR TV critic Eric Deggans tweeted , “Many things wrong w/terrible Berliner column on NPR, including not observing basic fairness. Didn’t seek comment from NPR before publishing. Didn’t mention many things which could detract from his conclusions. Set up staffers of color as scapegoats.”

So what happens now? Will Berliner be in further trouble for criticizing the CEO in an interview with Folkenflik, his NPR colleague?

Berliner told Folkenflik, “Talking to an NPR journalist and being fired for that would be extraordinary, I think.”

I urge you to check out Folkenflik’s piece for all the details. And, by the way, kudos to Folkenflik for his strong reporting on his own newsroom.

CNN’s response

In Tuesday’s newsletter , I wrote how “King Charles” — the limited series featuring Gayle King and Charles Barkley — has ended after 14 shows. I wrote that the network had “pulled the plug” on the show.

CNN said that description was inaccurate and that I was wrong in framing it the way I did.

While I did say that CNN announced from the beginning that the show was a limited series, I also wrote that the show reached its ending “a little ahead of time.” The network, however, said it was clear all along that the show was scheduled to end in the spring, that it is spring right now, and the show was not canceled early.

A CNN spokesperson told me, “‘King Charles’ has come to the end of its limited run, as we announced when it launched last fall that it would run through spring. The show was a great addition to CNN’s lineup, with the youngest, most affluent, and most diverse P2+ audience in its cable news time period and brought new audiences to CNN. It’s inaccurate to report that the show was canceled as it went through its full run and duration of the limited series. We hope to work with both of these incredible talents in the future as they balance their very busy schedules.”

With the NBA playoffs about to begin, Barkley is about to head into extra duty at his main job as studio analyst for TNT’s “Inside the NBA.”

The show’s average viewership was under a half million and lagged behind competitors Fox News and MSNBC, but CNN said it was pleased that the King-Barkley broadcast brought new audiences to CNN. It pointed to this statistic from Nielsen via Npower that said 43% of the “King Charles” audience was nonwhite, compared to 7% for Fox News and 27% for MSNBC during that Wednesday at 10 p.m. Eastern hour.

Smartmatic and OAN settle suit

Smartmatic, the voting technology company, and One America News, the far-right TV network, have settled their lawsuit. Smartmatic was suing OAN, claiming the network lied that the company rigged the 2020 election in favor of Joe Biden and against Donald Trump.

Neither side disclosed the terms of the settlement.

Smartmatic still has pending lawsuits against Fox News and Newsmax. And OAN is still facing a defamation lawsuit from Dominion Voting Systems. That’s the company that Fox News settled with out of court a year ago by agreeing to pay Dominion a whopping $787.5 million.

Missing at the Masters

According to Sports TV Ratings , Sunday’s final round of The Masters golf tournament on CBS averaged 9.58 million viewers, which was down 20% from last year’s final round, which averaged 12.05 million. This shouldn’t be a surprise. This year’s final round lacked drama, with winner Scottie Scheffler pretty much in control throughout the day.

Sports Media Watch’s Jon Lewis noted that in the past three decades, only COVID-era Masters in 2020 (5.64 million) and 2021 (9.54 million) had fewer viewers. Those were the least-viewed Masters since 1993.

But Lewis also points out, “As one would expect, the final round of the Masters still ranks as the most-watched golf telecast and one of the most-watched sporting events of the past year — placing ahead of four of five World Series games and every Daytona 500 since 2017. It also goes without saying that the Masters dominated all other weekend sporting events.”

Just for fun, however, I will mention that the 9.58 million was nowhere near the number of viewers (18.7 million) that watched the NCAA women’s college basketball final between South Carolina and Iowa (and star Caitlin Clark) one week earlier on a Sunday afternoon.

Other media notes, tidbits and interesting links …

• Speaking of Clark, Tom Kludt writes for Vanity Fair: “Behind the Scenes With Caitlin Clark on WNBA Draft Day: ‘I Definitely Know There’s Eyeballs on Me.’”
• Axios’ Sara Fischer with “Dozens of Alden newspapers run coordinated editorials slamming Google.”
• For the Los Angeles Times, Greg Braxton and Carolyn Cole with “What ‘Civil War’ gets right and wrong about photojournalism, according to a Pulitzer Prize winner.”
• For The Washington Post, Dave Barry, Angela Garbes, Melissa Fay Greene, John Grogan and Charles Yu with “How does the election feel around the country? 5 writers capture the vibe.” Barry, as always looking at things a bit differently, writes, “Greetings from the Sunshine State! The mood down here, as we anticipate the 2024 presidential election, is one of hopefulness. Specifically, we’re hoping that a large, previously undetected meteor will strike the planet before November.”
• For NPR and “Morning Edition,” Elizabeth Blair with “50 years ago, ‘Come and Get Your Love’ put Native culture on the bandstand.”

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How a longtime film critic’s death represents the great dissolve of local film criticism

Bryan VanCampen of The Ithaca Times was an institution in the central New York college town of 32,000. He might have been the last of his kind.

Opinion | An NPR editor is now a former NPR editor after his resignation

Uri Berliner, an NPR business editor who wrote a scathing essay about his organization in another publication, no longer works at NPR.

No, Stormy Daniels didn’t ‘exonerate’ Donald Trump

The adult film actor denied she had an affair with Trump in a 2018 statement. She has since recanted that statement.

Taylor Swift has not endorsed Joe Biden for president

As of mid-April 2024, Swift has not issued a public endorsement for the 2024 presidential election, despite social posts claiming otherwise

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Computer Science > Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition

Title: self-supervised learning featuring small-scale image dataset for treatable retinal diseases classification.

Abstract: Automated medical diagnosis through image-based neural networks has increased in popularity and matured over years. Nevertheless, it is confined by the scarcity of medical images and the expensive labor annotation costs. Self-Supervised Learning (SSL) is an good alternative to Transfer Learning (TL) and is suitable for imbalanced image datasets. In this study, we assess four pretrained SSL models and two TL models in treatable retinal diseases classification using small-scale Optical Coherence Tomography (OCT) images ranging from 125 to 4000 with balanced or imbalanced distribution for training. The proposed SSL model achieves the state-of-art accuracy of 98.84% using only 4,000 training images. Our results suggest the SSL models provide superior performance under both the balanced and imbalanced training scenarios. The SSL model with MoCo-v2 scheme has consistent good performance under the imbalanced scenario and, especially, surpasses the other models when the training set is less than 500 images.

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