write an essay about the 2023 election

What the 2024 Election Is Really About for Trump Supporters

He promised them: “I am your retribution.”

Updated at 9:15 p.m. ET on November 2, 2023

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Twenty‐five years before my first book about Donald Trump was published, I wrote a paperback titled The Right to Bear Arms: The Rise of America’s New Militias . It was written after Timothy McVeigh’s 1995 bombing of the Oklahoma City federal building, and tracks the emerging anti-government movement that inspired McVeigh to make war on the federal law-enforcement agencies that he, and many other far‐right activists, believed posed a threat both to America and to themselves.

On the cover of the book is a photograph of the Branch Davidians’ Waco, Texas, compound engulfed in flames. Federal law enforcement learned that the group was stockpiling weapons and explosives and, after a disastrous siege in early 1993, attempted to storm the compound. With agents closing in, several Branch Davidians set fire to the building, apparently preferring to die rather than be captured by authorities. The body of the cult’s leader, David Koresh, was found with a gunshot to the head.

The raid was a colossal failure. To some, though, the debacle represented something far more sinister: a deliberate plot by the government to trap and murder the Branch Davidians.

Waco became a rallying cry for right‐wing activists who believed that Washington, D.C., was out to get them. “Citizens’ militias” stockpiled arms and ammunition as well as food and survival gear. Some played weekend war games in vacant parking lots, on farmland, or in remote woodlands. “The ranks of the militias are made up of factory workers, veterans, computer programmers, farmers, housewives, small‐business owners,” I wrote in the book’s introduction. “The most shocking thing about these ‘paramilitary extremists’ is how normal they are. They are your neighbors. But in another sense, many members of America’s new militias live in a parallel universe, where civil war is already being waged by tyrants within the federal government.”

In the run‐up to publication, I planned a small party and decided to spruce up the invitation with some over‐the‐top words of praise from my friends and colleagues. A couple of my colleagues at the New York Post offered up some choice words, and on a whim, I decided to call a famous New Yorker who was both a reliable source and known for making hyperbolic statements to see if he would give me a quote as well. He readily agreed to provide a glowing endorsement—provided I wrote it up myself. So I did:

“What a book! Karl is one of the best in the business—tough, fair and brutally honest.” — Donald J. Trump

Trump signed off on the quote. To this day, I don’t know whether he actually read the advance copy of The Right to Bear Arms I sent him—but more than a quarter of a century later, he announced that the first rally of his 2024 presidential campaign would be held in a familiar location: Waco, Texas.

Largely irrelevant in both the Republican primary and the general election, Texas was an odd choice for the campaign kickoff. A Trump spokesperson would later deny that the venue selection was at all related to the massacre that took place there almost exactly 30 years earlier—he claimed Waco was chosen solely because it was “centrally located” and “close” to big cities such as Dallas and Houston—but plenty of rally attendees drew the connection between the setting and Trump’s central campaign message.

“[Trump’s] making a statement, I believe, by coming to these stomping grounds where the government, the FBI, laid siege on this community just like they laid siege on Mar‐a‐Lago and went in and took his stuff,” Charles Pace, a Branch Davidian pastor who knew Koresh but left the compound several years before the deadly fire, told The Texas Tribune . “He’s not coming right out and saying, ‘Well, I’m doing it because I want you to know what happened there was wrong.’ But he implies it.”

Shortly after the rally was announced, I asked Steve Bannon, who had served as the CEO of Trump’s 2016 campaign and had once again emerged as one of Trump’s most important advisers, why the former president would go to Waco for his big campaign reboot. He wasn’t coy.

“We’re the Trump Davidians,” he told me with a laugh.

Even less subtle than the venue of the rally was how Trump kicked it off, standing silently onstage with his hand on his heart while he waited for “The Star‐Spangled Banner” to play. This wasn’t a traditional version of the national anthem. Trump’s campaign had queued up “Justice for All,” a rendition of the song recorded over a jailhouse phone by a group of about 20 inmates being held in Washington, D.C., for taking part in the assault on the U.S. Capitol. In the song, the so‐called J6 Prison Choir makes its way through Francis Scott Key’s lyrics while Trump’s voice interjects with stray lines from the Pledge of Allegiance, which he recorded at Mar‐a‐Lago. As the recording blared, video footage from the January 6 riot played on the massive screens flanking the stage.

Jonathan Karl: The man who made January 6 possible

“For seven years, you and I have been taking on the corrupt, rotten, and sinister forces trying to destroy America,” he told the crowd. “They’re not going to do it, but they do get closer and closer with rigged elections.”

He declared, “2024 is the final battle.”

This wasn’t a campaign speech in any traditional sense. Trump echoed the themes of paranoia and foreboding that grew out of the Waco massacre. “As far as the eye can see, the abuses of power that we’re currently witnessing at all levels of government will go down as among the most shameful, corrupt, and depraved chapters in all of American history,” he said.

“They’re not coming after me,” he told the crowd. “They’re coming after you.”

The message seemed to resonate, but its brazenness was staggering. The folks cheering Trump had not taken boxes stuffed with classified documents out of the White House—and it’s safe to assume that none of them spent tens of thousands of dollars to cover up an affair with an adult‐film star.

Whatever you think about the investigations, Trump invited the scrutiny. Special Counsel Jack Smith was probing Trump’s role in the January 6 attack and his failure to turn over that classified material. Fulton County District Attorney Fani Willis was investigating his efforts to overturn the 2020 presidential-election results in Georgia. And Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg was nearing an indictment on charges related to hush‐money payments Trump made weeks before the 2016 election to the porn star Stormy Daniels.

“The DOJ and FBI are destroying the lives of so many Great American Patriots, right before our very eyes,” Trump posted on Truth Social the day after four members of the Proud Boys militia were convicted of seditious conspiracy for their role in the storming of the Capitol. “GET SMART AMERICA, THEY ARE COMING AFTER YOU!!!”

But “they” weren’t coming after Trump’s law‐abiding supporters—they were coming after Trump. Decades earlier, the presidential candidate Bill Clinton told voters that he felt their pain. Trump was now doing the reverse, trying to persuade his supporters to feel his pain as if it were their own.

Trump was in a dark place when he announced that he was running for president in early 2023. Still reeling from the Republican Party’s disappointing midterm performance the previous November, he barely seemed to be trying. A close confidant of the former president told me that he was trying to get Trump to do more to jump‐start his effort to win back the White House, encouraging him, for example, to go on the attack against President Joe Biden and the Democrats over the federal bailout of Silicon Valley Bank. But the adviser was getting nowhere. “He’s just obsessed with this New York thing.”

The “New York thing,” of course, was Bragg’s grand-jury investigation. The case was long believed to be dead, but on January 30, the Manhattan D.A.’s office had impaneled a new grand jury and begun presenting evidence of Trump’s involvement in the hush-money payments. Over the next few weeks, it became clear that the first presidential indictment in history was imminent—but nobody knew exactly when Bragg would pull the trigger.

Except, apparently, Donald Trump.

“THE FAR & AWAY LEADING REPUBLICAN CANDIDATE & FORMER PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA, WILL BE ARRESTED ON TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK,” he posted on Truth Social at 7:26 a.m. on March 18.

Political journalists scrambled to find out what Trump was talking about. Why hadn’t anybody tipped them off that such momentous news was coming? Had Bragg officially communicated to the former president’s legal team what to expect? How else could Trump have been so confident about the exact date of his arrest?

One of Trump’s lawyers, Joe Tacopina, would later tell reporters that the former president’s legal team had not been informed of any impending indictment—and he was right. So where did Trump get the idea he was about to be arrested?

A source close to Trump told me that the former president had learned of his pending indictment from an MSNBC show called Morning Joe: Weekend . Not that many people are tuning in to a cable-news program that starts at six on Saturday mornings, but Trump was, and he took particular interest in a segment—a rerun from two days earlier—featuring the legal analyst Andrew Weissmann on the Manhattan D.A.’s investigation. Discussing Bragg’s recent interactions with Trump’s legal team and the grand jury, Weissmann said he couldn’t see the D.A. not indicting the former president, telling the show’s co-host Joe Scarborough that he believed such a move was imminent: “We should be very, very conscious that this is likely to come down very soon.”

Trump, according to my source, interpreted Weissmann’s speculation as fact. “IT’S TIME!!!” Trump wrote on his Truth Social platform. “THEY’RE KILLING OUR NATION AS WE SIT BACK & WATCH. WE MUST SAVE AMERICA! PROTEST, PROTEST, PROTEST!!!”

Trump’s rhetoric was reckless—recall what happened the last time he encouraged his supporters to protest—and it prompted a flurry of news coverage and political commentary on his alleged criminality. That might seem problematic for somebody trying to get a presidential campaign off the ground. But everyone seemed to be talking about him again, and Republicans—even his potential 2024 rivals—felt obligated to jump to his defense, or at least condemn the Manhattan D.A. To Trump, that was a win.

In the days following his prediction of a Tuesday arrest, he attacked Bragg, who is Black, as a “Racist in Reverse” and “degenerate psychopath” who was pursuing him while letting “MURDERERS, RAPISTS, AND DRUG DEALERS WALK FREE.” Trump’s most inflammatory comments were about what would happen to the country if Bragg went through with what he was planning. “What kind of person can charge another person,” Trump wrote on March 24, “when it is known by all that NO Crime has been committed, & also known that potential death & destruction in such a false charge could be catastrophic for our Country?”

The implication seemed clear: Drop the case against me, or my supporters will get violent. That same day, an envelope—apparently mailed from Florida—was found in the Manhattan D.A.’s office containing a trace amount of white powder and a letter that read, “ALVIN: I AM GOING TO KILL YOU!!!!!!!!!!!!!”

David A. Graham: The cases against Trump–a guide

For a few days at least, Trump believed that his threats had had their intended effect. Tuesday came and went, and he remained a free man. So did Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday. By Saturday, Trump was talking as though he had successfully outmaneuvered Bragg. “I think they’ve already dropped the case,” he told reporters on the plane ride back from his campaign rally in Waco. “It’s a fake case—some fake cases. They have absolutely nothing.”

When multiple news outlets reported on March 29 that the grand jury would be taking a month-long hiatus, Trump was ecstatic. “I HAVE GAINED SUCH RESPECT FOR THIS GRAND JURY, & PERHAPS EVEN THE GRAND JURY SYSTEM AS A WHOLE,” he posted on Truth Social. “THE EVIDENCE IS SO OVERWHELMING IN MY FAVOR, & SO RIDICULOUSLY BAD FOR THE HIGHLY PARTISAN & HATEFUL DISTRICT ATTORNEY, THAT THE GRAND JURY IS SAYING, HOLD ON, WE ARE NOT A RUBBER STAMP.”

The grand jury voted to indict him the next day.

As Trump prepared to fly to New York the following week, rumors swirled that he was planning to turn his arraignment into a spectacle. One story claimed that his advisers were ready to use his mug shot for campaign merchandise; another reported that he wanted to be handcuffed behind his back as he walked into the courtroom. A confidant, noting that Easter was coming, urged him to lean into the Christ analogy.

Trump didn’t do any of it, opting instead to get in and out of New York as quickly and quietly as possible.

Politically speaking, the former president’s advisers may have been right. His campaign received millions of dollars in donations in the days after the indictment was announced. Arriving in Manhattan with dozens of supportive lawmakers in tow and holding a combative press conference in the gold‐plated lobby of his skyscraper would have been a show of strength. It could have reminded the world that he was still the front-runner for the Republican presidential nomination—and sent the message that Bragg hadn’t rattled him.

The problem was that the indictment had rattled him. For all his bluster, Trump desperately wanted to stave off an arrest, and he was embarrassed he hadn’t been able to. When it came time to turn himself in, he slipped out of Trump Tower and got into a black SUV.

Upon arrival at the courthouse, Trump was fingerprinted and processed, just like anybody else facing criminal charges in New York (though no mug shot was taken). Then he was escorted to the room where his lawyers were waiting. Across the hallway from this holding room were several empty jail cells.

“They stood up and saluted,” Trump told his lawyers when he returned from processing, according to a source who witnessed his comments. A week later, he’d tell the then–Fox News host Tucker Carlson that the court employees’ eyes were welling up as they processed him.

“They were actually crying,” he claimed . “They said, ‘I’m sorry.’ They said, ‘2024, sir, 2024.’ And tears were pouring down their eyes.”

The court employees at 100 Centre Street have seen it all. It’s a place packed with every kind of defendant—petty criminals, alleged killers, mobsters, celebrity defendants, and, yes, disgraced politicians. The staff aren’t known for saluting people as they take their fingerprints, and they certainly aren’t known for crying on the job. Shortly after the Carlson interview aired, “a law-enforcement source” familiar with the proceedings told the journalist Michael Isikoff of Yahoo News that Trump’s claims were “absolute BS.”

“There were zero people crying,” the source added. “There were zero people saying, ‘I’m sorry.’”

In their holding room at the courthouse, Trump and his lawyers were given copies of the 34‐count felony indictment that would soon be presented formally upstairs in the courtroom. Trump, however, took more interest in the placement of the television camera he would pass by on his way there. He knew the image of him walking by that camera would be played over and over again on television and social media. But the camera was way down the hallway—separated from the courthouse door by barricades—making it difficult, if not impossible, to be heard if he wanted to say anything. He wasn’t happy, but there was nothing Trump could do about it. This wasn’t his show. Still, he tried. For a few seconds when he was visible on camera, he managed to lock his gaze on the lens, glaring at the world as he walked by.

Inside the courtroom, Trump sat at the defendant’s table, flanked by his lawyers.

He had to wait a full five minutes before the judge came into the room. When the words “All rise!” rang out, everybody in the court, including Trump, had to stand.

D.A. Bragg and Juan Merchan, the presiding judge, were met by a version of Donald Trump that was much quieter, more somber—more timid—than the man he appeared to be on television and social media. The night before, he had said that Bragg should “INDICT HIMSELF.” But finally given a chance to confront them face‐to‐face, Trump was mostly silent. During the 57‐minute proceeding, Trump said just 10 words —“not guilty,” “yes,” “okay, thank you,” “yes,” “I do,” “yes”—and spoke so quietly that reporters had to strain to hear him.

For the first time in years, Donald Trump was not the most powerful person in the room.

As soon as the arraignment was over, Trump raced back to Mar-a-Lago, responding to his first indictment with a speech aimed squarely at the prosecutors closing in on him—not just Bragg, but also Fulton County D.A. Fani Willis, who is also Black (Trump called her the “local racist Democrat district attorney in Atlanta”), and the special counsel leading the Department of Justice’s investigations into January 6 and his handling of classified documents (a “lunatic special prosecutor named Jack Smith”). More than any potential Republican rival for the party’s presidential nomination—more than Biden, even— these were the people he was now running against.

David A. Graham: He’s back

“REPUBLICANS IN CONGRESS SHOULD DEFUND THE DOJ AND FBI UNTIL THEY COME TO THEIR SENSES,” he posted on Truth Social the following day. His campaign was selling T‐shirts (for $36) featuring a fake “mug shot” of Trump made to look as if it were a booking photo. Later in the week, his campaign posted a video advertisement featuring dramatic footage from Trump’s arraignment. Apparently, being indicted for paying off your porn‐star mistress was not something to be ashamed of in a Republican primary. “If they can do it to him they can do it to you,” Donald Trump Jr. tweeted . Noticeably absent from Trump’s obsession with his own victimization was any real focus on helping Americans who weren’t under criminal investigation, but his advisers were convinced that the ploy would work. “This week, Trump could lock down the nomination if he played his cards right,” Bannon told me as rumors began to swirl of Bragg’s indictment. “‘They’re crucifying me,’ you know, ‘I’m a martyr.’ All that. You get everybody so riled up that they just say, ‘Fuck it. I hate Trump, but we’ve got to stand up against this.’”

The trial date for the hush‐money case was later set during a hearing with Judge Merchan where Trump appeared via video from a room in Mar‐a‐Lago. For most of the appearance, Trump silently listened, his microphone on mute. But when the judge announced the court date—March 25, 2024—he reacted angrily, waving his hands and shaking his head. No one in the courtroom could hear him, but he appeared to be yelling at the lawyer sitting next to him in Mar-a-Lago, Todd Blanche. According to a source there with Trump, the former president erupted at Blanche because the March 2024 trial would be during a crucial point in the presidential campaign.

“That’s in the middle of the primaries!” Trump yelled. “If I lose the presidency, you are going to be the reason!”

Trump’s tantrum, according to the source, continued for nearly 30 minutes after the court appearance ended and the camera was turned off—a withering attack on perhaps the most highly regarded lawyer on Trump’s troubled legal team.

“You little fucker!” Trump yelled at Blanche. “You are going to cost me the presidency!”

(A spokesperson for the Trump campaign disputed that the former president was angry with his lawyer about the trial date or accused him of jeopardizing his presidential campaign, saying, “President Trump and Mr. Blanche are united in fighting these unlawful witch-hunts and the weaponization of the justice system.”)

A bout a month before his first indictment, Trump was about 10 miles south of the White House, addressing attendees at the Conservative Political Action Conference at the Gaylord National Resort & Convention Center, in Maryland. CPAC this year looked like a full‐blown Trump convention. Devotees of the former president such as Representatives Matt Gaetz and Marjorie Taylor Greene were among the warmest-received by the crowd.

Trump had the keynote time slot on Saturday night. After the public‐address system introduced him as the “next president of the United States,” he ambled onto the stage and spoke for nearly two hours.

“The sinister forces trying to kill America have done everything they can to stop me, to silence you, and to turn this nation into a socialist dumping ground for criminals, junkies, Marxists, thugs, radicals, and dangerous refugees that no other country wants,” he said. The speech was ominous, but one rhetorical flourish stood out. “In 2016, I declared I am your voice. Today, I add: I am your warrior; I am your justice,” Trump said. “And for those who have been wronged and betrayed, I am your retribution.” He repeated the last phrase—“ I am your retribution ”—and promptly the crowd started chanting: “U.S.A.! U.S.A.! U.S.A.!”

When I spoke with Bannon a few days later, he wouldn’t stop touting Trump’s performance, referring to it as his “Come Retribution” speech. What I didn’t realize was that “Come Retribution,” according to some Civil War historians, served as the code words for the Confederate Secret Service’s plot to take hostage—and eventually assassinate—President Abraham Lincoln.

“The use of the key phrase ‘Come Retribution’ suggests that the Confederate government had made a bitter decision to repay some of the misery that had been inflicted on the South,” William A. Tidwell, James O. Hall, and David Winfred Gaddy wrote in the 1988 book Come Retribution: The Confederate Secret Service and the Assassination of Lincoln . “Bitterness may well have been directed toward persons held to be particularly responsible for that misery, and Abraham Lincoln certainly headed the list.”

Bannon actually recommended that I read that book, erasing any doubt that he was intentionally using the Confederate code words to describe Trump’s speech.

Trump’s speech was not an overt call for the assassination of his political opponents, but it did advocate their destruction by other means. Success “is within our reach, but only if we have the courage to complete the job, gut the deep state, reclaim our democracy, and banish the tyrants and Marxists into political exile forever,” Trump said. “This is the turning point.”

The “Come Retribution” speech was a turning point for Trump’s campaign. The trial date for the charge of interfering in the 2020 election has been set for March 4; for the hush-money case, it’s March 25; for the classified-documents case, it’s May 20. As Election Day approaches and he faces down these many days in court, he will be waging a campaign of vengeance and martyrdom. He will continue to talk about what is at stake in the election in apocalyptic terms—“the final battle”—knowing how high the stakes are for him personally. He can win and retake the White House. Or he can lose and go to prison.

“Trump’s on offense and talking about real things,” Bannon told me. “The ‘Come Retribution’ speech had 10 or 12 major policies.” But Bannon knew that the speech wasn’t about policies in a traditional sense. Trump spoke about whom he would target once he returned to power. “We will demolish the deep state. We will expel the warmongers,” Trump said. “We will drive out the globalists; we will cast out the communists. We will throw off the political class that hates our country … We will beat the Democrats. We will rout the fake news media. We will expose and appropriately deal with the RINOs. We will evict Joe Biden from the White House. And we will liberate America from these villains and scoundrels once and for all.”

A couple of days after Special Counsel Jack Smith finally indicted him for his actions leading up to January 6, Trump made his threat explicit: “IF YOU GO AFTER ME, I’M COMING AFTER YOU!”

That, more than anything else, is the beating heart of Trump’s 2024 campaign: Vote for me, and I will punish the people who have wronged you—by wronging me. I am your retribution.

This essay is adapted from the forthcoming Tired of Winning: Donald Trump and the End of the Grand Old Party .

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Election Impact: What to Expect in 2023

February 2022

By Nathan Gonzales, Inside Elections  Editor and Publisher Public Affairs Council Senior Political Analyst

Confrontation, not compromise, is likely between Democrats and Republicans

While we still have eight months before the midterm elections, it’s not too early to peek into the future to see how Washington might work (or not work) in 2023.

Considering historical midterm trends, Democratic struggles in key 2021 races, and President Joe Biden’s underwhelming job approval rating, Republicans are well positioned to win majorities in the House and the Senate. Neither outcome is guaranteed, and the fight for the Senate is more uncertain than the fight for the House, but a GOP takeover of Congress is still  the most likely scenario for 2022 .

If that happens, the president and Republicans on Capitol Hill are going to have to decide how they are going to behave and approach the final two years of Biden’s first term.

It’s possible that 2023 will look like the mid-1990s, when Republicans rode a wave into power in the 1994 midterm elections. Things started out rough, including President Bill Clinton vetoing GOP legislation and a government shutdown. But then Clinton and Republicans on Capitol Hill worked together to pass welfare reform. (Of course things got a bit complicated again in Clinton’s second term.)

But mark me down as pessimistic that there would be much cooperation between Republican majorities and the Biden administration.

The parties’ approach to 2023 and 2024 will start to be shaped by their view of the 2022 election results. Remember that even though politicians  can be poor political analysts , what they think happened in an election cycle matters more than what actually happened, because what they think happened will drive their future behavior.

For example, if Republicans gain the House and Senate majorities, it will likely be because too many independent voters disapprove of the direction of the country under Democratic leadership. But the GOP could take it as a mandate for their own ideas.

At the outset, I think a GOP majority in the House is likely to exact revenge on House Democrats. There’s a good chance Republicans  will move to strip committee assignments  from Democratic Reps. Eric Swalwell and Adam Schiff of California and Ilhan Omar of Minnesota as retribution for Democrats removing GOP Reps. Marjorie Taylor Greene of Georgia and Paul Gosar of Arizona from their committees. It doesn’t really matter if the offenses and allegations are different; Republicans are determined to use Democrats’ own actions against them. And that will set an adversarial tone.

Republicans could even go further with their oversight authority. “We are going to take power after this next election. When we do, it’s not going to be the days of Paul Ryan and Trey Gowdy, and no real oversight, and no real subpoenas. It’s going to be the days of Jim Jordan, Marjorie Taylor Greene, and Dr. Gosar and myself,” said GOP Rep. Matt Gaetz of Florida in December.

While Gaetz has his  own legal challenges  and may not be in Congress next year, a similar sentiment resides in plenty of other GOP members who will be around.

House Republicans will also receive significant pressure from former President Donald Trump, who will take credit for GOP gains in 2022 and have his own agenda to exact on political opponents. Former House Speaker Newt Gingrich suggested that members of the committee investigating the Jan. 6 insurrection  could be prosecuted . And a Biden impeachment effort shouldn’t be dismissed.

On the Senate side, it’s inaction rather than action that’s likely to define a new GOP majority. How do we know? Because it was a key reason that Republican Gov. Chris Sununu declined to challenge Democratic Sen. Maggie Hassan in New Hampshire after talking with potential future colleagues.

“They were all, for the most part, content with the speed at which they weren’t doing anything. It was very clear that we just have to hold the line for two years,” Sununu  told David Drucker of the  Washington Examiner .  “OK, so I’m just going to be a roadblock for two years. That’s not what I do.” Sununu also told Drucker that virtually every GOP senator he chatted with said they plan to do little more with the majority than obstruct Biden until the party can win the White House in 2024.

And therein lies the most likely lesson the GOP would take from gains in 2022. Republicans will see it as a steppingstone to full control after the 2024 elections, rather than a call to work in a bipartisan way to confront the country’s problems.

Of course, if Republicans make big gains in 2022, Biden will have to make his own decision about how he’ll approach the final two years of his first term. He could take the losses as a prompt to go further toward appeasing Republicans in how he approaches the nation’s crises, and work with GOP majorities to solve problems. That presupposes Republicans are willing to work at all with Biden. But even after suffering significant losses, there’s no appetite in the Democratic base for Biden to work with a Republican Party led by Trump.

Biden’s approach to 2023 might be more defined by what he plans to do in 2024. If he’s not planning to run for reelection (and I don’t think he will), then he’ll be thinking about legacy. And the only way for him to get anything done in this scenario is to work with Republicans on Capitol Hill.

So for those people or groups looking for wide-ranging, bipartisan compromise next year if Republicans win the majorities, you’ll likely be disappointed. But if gridlock and minimal change provide comfort, then there’s reason for optimism.

Nathan L. Gonzales is a senior political analyst for the Public Affairs Council and editor of Inside Elections, a nonpartisan newsletter with a subscription package designed to boost PACs with a regular newsletter and exclusive conference call. His email address is  [email protected] .  

” The parties’ approach to 2023 and 2024 will start to be shaped by their view of the 2022 election results.

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August 24, 2023

The Ultimate College Essay Guide: Prompts and Writing Tips

When we at Ivy Coach hear the term “the college essay,” we instinctively roll our eyes because there is not one college essay. While The Common Application includes a Personal Statement that is submitted to every Common App.-subscribing school, most of America’s highly selective universities feature additional essays on their unique supplements — and these essays are just as critical as the Personal Statement.

Since many schools change their supplemental admissions essay prompts from year to year, especially this year after the Supreme Court struck down Affirmative Action in late June of 2023 (the essays are, in some ways, a legal loophole allowing colleges to consider a student’s background when weighing their case for admission), it’s hard to find all of the new prompts for America’s top colleges in one place. Until now , that is.

2023-2024 College Essay Prompts

Below, applicants to the Class of 2028, you’ll find this year’s essay prompts for America’s highly selective universities — directly from each school’s admissions office:

How to Address the 2023-2024 College Essay Prompts

Below, you’ll find Ivy Coach’s tips on approaching the 2023-2024 supplemental essay prompts at America’s highly selective universities. If we haven’t yet posted our annual tips for a specific university, whose essays are hot off the presses, rest assured that it will be posted in short order.

Ivy Coach’s Assistance Tackling the 2023-2024 College Essays

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Essay on Election for Students and Children

500+ words essay on election.

Election is the process through which people can express their political opinion. They express this opinion by public voting to choose a political leader . Furthermore, this political leader would have authority and responsibility. Most noteworthy, Election is a formal group decision making the process. Also, the selected political leader would hold public office. The election is certainly a vital pillar of democracy. This is because; Election ensures that the government is of the people, by the people, and for the people.

Characteristics of Election

First of all, suffrage is an important part of Election . Most noteworthy, suffrage refers to the right to vote in Elections. The question of who may vote is certainly an important issue. The electorate probably never includes the entire population. Almost all countries prohibit individuals under the age of majority from voting. For example, in India, the age of majority is attainable at the age of 18 years.

The nomination of a candidate is also an important characteristic of Election. This means to officially suggest someone for Election. Nomination refers to the process of selecting a candidate for election to a public office. Furthermore, endorsements or testimonials are public statements to support a candidate’s nomination.

Another essential characteristic of Election is electoral systems. Electoral systems refer to detailed constitutional arrangements and voting systems. Furthermore, detailed constitutional arrangements and voting systems convert the vote into a political decision.

The first step is the tally of votes. For this purpose, there is the use of various vote counting systems and ballot. Then comes the determination of the result on the basis of the tally. Also, the categorization of most systems is as either proportional or majoritarian.

Scheduling refers to arranging and controlling of Elections. Elected officials are accountable to the people. Therefore, they must return to the voters at regular intervals of time. Elected officials must do that so as to seek a mandate to continue in office. Above all, most countries arrange elections at fixed regular intervals.

An election campaign is also an integral part of Election. Election campaign refers to an organized effort to positively influence the decision making of a particular group. Consequently, politicians compete with each other by trying to woo more and more individuals.

Get the huge list of more than 500 Essay Topics and Ideas

Importance of Election

First of all, the Election is a peaceful and efficient way of choosing political leaders. Furthermore, citizens of a Nation choose a leader by casting their votes. In this way, the citizens are able to choose an individual whose views appeal to them most. Hence, people are able to exercise their will in political leadership.

An election is an excellent opportunity for people to express their resentment. Most noteworthy, if people are unhappy with a particular leadership, then they can remove it from power. People can certainly replace an undesirous leadership with a better alternative through Election.

The election is a handsome opportunity for political participation. Furthermore, it is a way by which new issues can be raised in public. In most democratic countries, common citizens are allowed to contest elections independently.

Consequently, a citizen could introduce reforms which are not any political party’s agenda. Also, in most democratic countries, a citizen could form a new political party to contest Election.

Election helps keep the power of political leaders in check. The ruling parties cannot afford to do any wrongdoing to the public due to the risk of losing Election. Hence, Election serves as an efficient power check and control for those in the ruling power.

To sum it up, Election is the symbol of political freedom. Most noteworthy, it is the tool which puts authority in the hands of common people. Democracy certainly would be non-functional without it. People must realize the value of Elections and come out in large numbers to vote.

Q1 What are electoral systems?

A1  Electoral systems are detailed constitutional arrangements and voting systems. These detailed constitutional arrangements and voting systems convert the vote into a political decision.

Q2 How Election helps keep the power of the political leaders in check?

A2 Elections certainly help keep the power of the political leaders in check. This is because political leaders cannot afford to do any wrongdoing to the public due to the risk of losing Election

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2023 Civics Essay Contest Prompts

2023 essay contest prompts.

Grades 3 - 8

The First Amendment protects freedom of speech. What happens when people are free to say anything they want in person or online? For example, yelling "fire" in a crowded room or posting hateful words on social media. What kind of free speech situations require a judge or police officer to get involved to keep the peace?

Grades 9 - 12

In 2021, the U.S. Supreme Court ruled that a high school cheerleader could not be punished in school for using curse words on social media when commenting about not making the cheer team while she was off school grounds. Do you think students should be held to the same standard when exercising their First Amendment right to freedom of speech whether they’re on or off school property? Decide if there are circumstances where students should be punished by a court of law for what they say or write to maintain civility.

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Nigeria election 2023: what are the issues and why is this vote different?

People will go the polls on Saturday in what is seen as a potential turning point for Africa’s most populous country

When do Nigerians go to the polls and what are they voting for?

On Saturday, up to 94 million voters in Africa’s most populous country and biggest economy will cast their ballots to elect lawmakers and the president. It’s the seventh election since the end of military rule in 1999, and an exercise involving enormous expenditure and logistics, keenly watched across the continent and beyond.

Why does the election matter?

Nigeria faces a host of serious challenges: growing insecurity, a struggling economy, massive debt, deep poverty and a corrupt political class – and this moment is genuinely seen as a potential turning point, with hopes that a fair and credible poll may alter the country’s trajectory for the better, allowing its youthful, creative and entrepreneurial energy to be harnessed for the good of all. Alternatively, it could lead Nigeria towards a very difficult future.

Nigeria is regionally dominant and a keystone state in Africa. Matthew Page, an expert at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace , describes the election as a chance for Nigeria’s democratic process “to send a proof-of-life message to the world”. With democracy in retreat across the continent, some analysts say a good election in Nigeria would revitalise the hopes of democratic reformers in other countries, with many of the issues resonating elsewhere.

Everyone recognises that the next decade is vital for the country, which is forecast to become the third -most populous in the world, behind India and China, by 2045.

What have been the issues for voters in the buildup to the vote?

The most obvious are security, with violent crime that was once restricted to more marginal areas now reaching into major urban centres, and the economy, as most people are considerably worse off now than they were in 2015 when the outgoing president, Muhammadu Buhari, started the first of his two terms. Corruption is also an issue for voters.

In recent weeks, a self-inflicted crisis after a poorly executed effort by authorities to replace the country’s banknotes has brought acute hardship and inconvenience. With naira currency so scarce, the poorest simply cannot buy basic foodstuffs or travel to vote. Many are adapting, but only slowly. In the meantime, “people are cashless and desperate … That is adding to tensions around the poll,” says Nnamdi Obasi , the International Crisis Group’s Nigeria-based expert.

What is different about this election?

A lot. One big difference is the size of the electorate, with 10 million more registered voters than in 2019, including many who are very young. A second big change from earlier polls is that the two main parties that have dominated Nigerian politics for decades – the ruling All Progressives Congress and the People’s Democratic party – have been challenged by a third credible contender: Peter Obi is an energetic 61-year-old who appears a generation younger than his main rivals, Bola Tinubu and Atiku Abubakar, who are in their 70s and look increasingly frail. More than anything, Obi represents a new kind of politics, reaching out beyond Nigeria’s sectarian and ethnic divides with the promise of dynamic, clean and efficient governance. Whether he will be able to fulfil that if he wins is another question. A final difference is new voting technology, which should cut down on rigging.

Many opinion polls have given Obi a substantial lead, and there is no doubt that the wealthy businessman turned politician has run a very effective campaign. However, analysts and ruling party officials say Obi may have difficulty converting “virtual” support on social media and among the young into enough votes to beat the vast patronage networks, deep pockets and powerful political organisation of his rivals.

Much depends on turnout, which has been woefully low in recent elections. Last year, before Obi launched his campaign, a survey found that just 39% of Nigerians felt close to a political party, a sharp decline compared with 2015. If more than two voters in five reach the voting booths, this will be seen as a boost to Obi’s chances, possibly signalling a wave of support.

When will we get a result?

Official results could take up to five days to be announced after the polls close, but the turnout should become clearer much earlier, along with some of the counts. This should give a sense within 36 to 48 hours of who will lead Nigeria.

Nigerian electoral law makes a runoff unlikely, as the winning candidate needs only a simple majority, provided they get 25% of the vote in at least two-thirds of the 36 states.

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Essay on Election | Election Essay for Students and Children in English

February 14, 2024 by Prasanna

Essay on Election: In any country across the world, whether democratic or autocratic, elections form an integral part of the lives of its citizens. In democracies, elections are important because governments are voted in and out of power through elections. In autocracies and dictatorships, there is no election, and people live under the rule and authority of a single person or a group. Over the years, the definitions and meanings of elections have changed. Elections are not the same as they were before. Nowadays, elections are held in ways that reduce or minimize chances of rigging or any form of influencing irrespective of the fact whether they use electronic voting machines or ballot papers.

An election stands for the will of the people of a country and the only way through which they can express their desires. It is the only way they can favor people who can change their lives. Here we have written sample essays covering the topic that might feature in exams and assignments of students of different classes.

You can read more  Essay Writing  about articles, events, people, sports, technology many more.

Long and Short Essays on Election for Students and Kids in English

We have provided an Essay on Election, a long essay on election consisting of 500 words, a short essay on election of 100-150 words and ten important points focusing on the topic.

Long Essay on Election in English 500 Words

Election Essay is usually given to classes 7, 8, 9, and 10.

Free and fair elections are said to be the hallmark of a healthy democracy. This means having elections where there is no interference on the part of the incumbent government gives rise to an efficient and robust democracy. But the purpose of an election is, however, not to be used as a hallmark. Instead, elections are the means to achieving the wills and desires of the people systematically. In India, people often call elections as the festival of democracy.

This is because India being a vast country it is difficult to keep track of the standard of elections everywhere. Yet, the apex body for conducting and regulating elections in India ensures that every election takes place smoothly. While elections are the means to achieve what the people desire, political parties play an essential role in the conducting of elections.

The political party which constitutes the government at the time of an election has to ensure total transparency. Other political parties have to see to it that they do not resort to any unfair means. The government ensures transparency through adequate measures like VVPATs and EVMs. Before each political election, parties engage in active campaigning.

The purpose of campaigning is to provide the public with what the respective parties are willing to do when they come to power. All these are highlighted in a document which is called the party manifesto. The manifesto contains, in detail, the achievements of the party in the past and its promises for the future. The public, however, votes for a party not only by going through a manifesto but also based on its performance. In the case of elections, another essential thing is political ideologies.

In India, some people favor the doctrines of the left, and some people find the ideologies of the right to be proper. Voting in an election also takes into account what a voter believes in. Security forces also play an essential part in the conducting of elections. They are deployed in places where elections are to take place in advance.

The security forces manage the situations at polling booths and see to it that everybody obeys the laws at the time of the election. Speaking of rules, the model code of conduct is an essential segment of conducting elections. The model code of conduct prescribes how people associated with the election process apart from the general public should do themselves.

The model code of conduct is usually activated a week before the elections and gets terminated with the conclusion of the same. Elections are the only way in which the people of a country realize their dreams and aspirations. It is hence vital to conduct them and that too in a free and fair manner.

Short Essay on Election in English 150 Words

Election essay is best suited for students of classes 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6.

Elections are an essential part of a person’s life. It is not just crucial to one single person but to each person living in a country. Elections signify change. Elections result in a party being voted out of power in favor of another party. This is done to ensure that the people of a country get what they want. Elections are the only way in which the people of a nation can realize their dreams. For instance, if a party in power cannot employ the youth, then they are removed for some other party that can do so.

In some nations of the world, elections do not occur, or even if they do, they are not free and fair. For example, North Korea has a single-party system. This means that only one party in the country can run for elections, and thus people do not have a choice. In such states, people suffer because there is no one to take care of them. we will soonly update Election essay in Hindi, Kannada, Gujarati, Telugu and Urdu.

10 Lines on Election Essay in English

• Elections are a tool of democracy.
• Elections should always be free and fair.
• Elections do not usually take place in autocratic nations.
• Political parties are involved in elections.
• Security forces ensure proper elections.
• Elections in India are called the festival of democracy.
• People vote parties out of power in elections.
• Elections are the means to achieve the will of the people.
• Election manifestos help the public in assessing the parties.
• Elections are conducted in India by the Election Commission of India.

FAQ’s on Election Essay

Question 1. Why don’t autocracies have elections?

Answer: Autocracies do not have elections because the ruling party does not approve of it.

Question 2. How do elections take place across India?

Answer: Elections in India take place through voting in the electronic voting machine.

Question 3. What is the duty of the security forces in elections?

Answer: Security force ensures that elections are appropriately managed as per the rules and laws.

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Meet the Moderator: Dana Bash.

What you need to know about CNN’s chief political correspondent.

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By Michael M. Grynbaum

• June 27, 2024

Dana Bash is one of the two moderators of Thursday’s presidential debate, along with Jake Tapper, CNN’s chief Washington correspondent. Their ability to guide and navigate the event may be crucial to how President Biden and former President Donald J. Trump — and CNN, which is hosting the debate — are received by the public. Here is what you need to know about Ms. Bash.

Job: Chief political correspondent, CNN. Anchor, “Inside Politics.”

Bio: Ms. Bash is a CNN lifer, starting as a producer shortly after graduating from college. She became a lead congressional and White House correspondent and then a fixture of the network’s election coverage; she has reported on presidential races dating back to 2000. In 2023, Ms. Bash became anchor of the midday program “Inside Politics”; she also hosts a series called “Badass Women of Washington.”

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Michael M. Grynbaum writes about the intersection of media, politics and culture. He has been a media correspondent at The Times since 2016. More about Michael M. Grynbaum

Voter Suppression and Electoral Integrity Crisis in Nigeria’s 2023 General Elections

Introduction

The 2023 General Election in Nigeria marked a crucial milestone in the nation’s democratic journey as citizens exercised their right to elect their leaders with support from the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) in conducting credible elections. 1 Sahara Reporters, “Nigerian Election 2023: What Did We Learn From It”, March 29, 2023, Opinion in https://saharareporters.com/2023/03/29/nigerian-election-2023-what-did-we-learn-it-matthew-ma However, concerns about voter suppression and electoral integrity cast a shadow over the democratic process. This article explores the key issues related to voter suppression and the overall integrity of the 2023 general elections in Nigeria.

Historical Context

Nigeria has a complex history of electoral challenges, as previous elections have been marred by allegations of irregularities and voter suppression. Since independence in 1960, violence and myriad malpractices have persistently plagued the process of electing the country’s leaders. 2 Ebere Onwudiwe and Chloe Berwind-Dart, “Breaking the Cycle of Electoral Violence in Nigeria,” United States Institute of Peace, Special Report 263, December, 2010 in https://www.usip.org/sites/default/files/resources/SR263   These issues erode public trust in the electoral process, undermine democratic principles, and hinder the country’s progress towards a fair and inclusive society. Against this background, the 2023 general elections initially held the promise of a more transparent, inclusive, and credible electoral process.

Voter Suppression and Electoral Integrity Crisis in the 2023 General Election in Nigeria

Virtually nothing worked according to INEC’s plan 6 Tribune Online, “2023 general election and integrity test”, March 29, 2023, Editorial Reading in https://tribuneonlineng.com/2023-general-election-and-integrity-test/ and it would not be surprising if the country experiences the highest numbers of post-election court cases since the return to democracy in 1999. 7 Chijioke Iremeka, “Electoral fraud, technology and future of Nigeria’s democracy” The Guardian, 08 April 2023, in https://guardian.ng/saturday-magazine/electoral-fraud-technology-and-future-of-nigerias-democracy/   The occurrence of vote-buying, an illegal practice where political contestants buy votes using money or gifts, severely undermines the credibility of the election. Vote-buying compromises the principle of free and fair elections by manipulating the will of the voters and undermining the democratic process. Furthermore, the issue of electoral security played a critical role in determining the integrity of the political process. The Transition Monitoring Group (TMG) noted that instances of violence, ballot box snatching, and the disruption of voting activities by political thugs were reported across the country, 8 The Guardian, “TMG decries violence, vote buying, apathy during guber polls,” March 24, 2023, Politics in https://guardian.ng/politics/tmg-decries-violence-vote-buying-apathy-during-guber-polls/  causing fear and insecurity among voters. Such incidents not only disenfranchised citizens but also cast doubts on the overall legitimacy of election results.

Addressing Voter Suppression and Electoral Integrity Crisis in 2023 General Elections in Nigeria

To ensure electoral integrity, various factors need to be considered, such as transparency, fairness, accuracy, and accountability. Regrettably, the 2023 general elections in Nigeria faced challenges in these areas.

Nigeria needs to take concrete steps to address the issues of voter suppression and the electoral integrity crisis. At the heart of the efforts toward ensuring electoral integrity lies the role and effectiveness of the Independent Electoral Commission (INEC). The Nigerian electorate, civil society, and citizen organizations should mobilize to ensure the independence and autonomy of the electoral commission as a strategy for upholding the integrity of the electoral process in the country. The commission should be free from undue political influence, adequately funded, and staffed with competent professionals who can efficiently perform their duties.

In addition, I propose the following recommendations for achieving a more inclusive and credible democratic system in Nigeria.

Strengthen Voter Education:

Enhancing civic education programs is essential to empowering citizens with the knowledge of their rights and responsibilities. Well-planned programs can motivate and encourage citizens to participate in the voting process and identify and report instances of electoral malpractice. 9 U.S. Election Assistance Commission Seven, “Tips to Strengthen Voter Education Programs” America Vote Act of 2002 in https://www.eac.gov/sites/default/files/eac_assets/1/28/EducatingVoters%5B3%5D-508%20Compliant.pdf This can help reduce voter suppression and improve electoral integrity in the country

Improve Electoral Infrastructure:

Addressing the issue of uneven distribution of polling stations is crucial. Investing in the provision of adequate infrastructure and establishing polling stations in remote and densely populated areas will enhance accessibility and increase voter turnout. The building and consolidation of the electoral infrastructure should be complemented by the establishment of strong mechanisms for ensuring political and electoral integrity.

Electoral Reforms:

There is also the need for inclusive electoral reforms that ensure the political leadership is strongly committed to promoting the rights of Nigerian citizens. 10 Oduola, Saheed Olasunkanmi, Hayatullah Boladale Hassan, and Banna Sawaneh. “Voters’ Education and Credible Elections in Nigeria: Issues and Challenges of 2019 General Elections” International Journal of Politics and Good Governance, 11, no. 11.1 (2020). . Continual review and improvement of electoral laws and regulations are necessary to address emerging challenges, as well as introducing and imposing strong sanctions on those found guilty of vote-buying, voter intimidation, and violence as a deterrent to the perpetuation of electoral malpractices.

Strengthen Electoral Security Measures:

The Nigerian government, political parties, and civil society groups need to take steps to improve election security, defuse tensions, and mitigate the risks of violence. 11 International Crisis Group, “Mitigating Risks of Violence in Nigeria’s 2023 Elections,” 10 February 2023 in https://www.crisisgroup.org/africa/west-africa/nigeria/311-mitigating-risks-violence-nigerias-2023-elections   This should not only include the deployment of adequate security personnel and polling stations, but also involve early warning systems and the use of proactive intelligence gathering to prevent electoral fraud and violence.

Use of Electoral Technology:

Leveraging technology in voter registration, result collation, and transmission processes can increase efficiency, transparency, and accuracy. Embracing biometric identification systems and securing electronic voting machines can help streamline the electoral process, minimize human error, and enhance overall electoral integrity.

Civil Society Engagement:

Civil society organizations can play a significant role in raising awareness, advocating for electoral reforms, and holding authorities accountable for any violations of democratic principles. Promoting transparency and communication between electoral authorities and the public is crucial. Regular updates on electoral processes, voter registration, and security measures can foster trust, encourage citizen engagement, and dispel doubts about the fairness of the elections. Part of civil society engagement should also involve working with election monitors and international election monitors to ensure the credibility and fairness of the elections, bolster public confidence, and deter electoral misconduct.

• 1 Sahara Reporters, “Nigerian Election 2023: What Did We Learn From It”, March 29, 2023, Opinion in https://saharareporters.com/2023/03/29/nigerian-election-2023-what-did-we-learn-it-matthew-ma
• 2 Ebere Onwudiwe and Chloe Berwind-Dart, “Breaking the Cycle of Electoral Violence in Nigeria,” United States Institute of Peace, Special Report 263, December, 2010 in https://www.usip.org/sites/default/files/resources/SR263
• 3 Centre for Democracy and Development, CDD, “Votes, Violence and Validity: Our Understanding of Nigeria’s 2023 Sub-National Elections,” March 21, 2023, in https://www.cddwestafrica.org/reports/votes-violence-and-validity-our-understanding-of-nigeria-s-2023-sub-national-elections/
• 4 Sun News Online, “Nigeria Decides 2023: Voter suppression, killings, violence hallmark 2023 polls”, March 23, 2023, Editorial Reading in https://sunnewsonline.com/nigeria-decides-2023-voter-suppression-killings-violence-hallmark-2023-polls/
• 6 Tribune Online, “2023 general election and integrity test”, March 29, 2023, Editorial Reading in https://tribuneonlineng.com/2023-general-election-and-integrity-test/
• 7 Chijioke Iremeka, “Electoral fraud, technology and future of Nigeria’s democracy” The Guardian, 08 April 2023, in https://guardian.ng/saturday-magazine/electoral-fraud-technology-and-future-of-nigerias-democracy/
• 8 The Guardian, “TMG decries violence, vote buying, apathy during guber polls,” March 24, 2023, Politics in https://guardian.ng/politics/tmg-decries-violence-vote-buying-apathy-during-guber-polls/
• 9 U.S. Election Assistance Commission Seven, “Tips to Strengthen Voter Education Programs” America Vote Act of 2002 in https://www.eac.gov/sites/default/files/eac_assets/1/28/EducatingVoters%5B3%5D-508%20Compliant.pdf
• 10 Oduola, Saheed Olasunkanmi, Hayatullah Boladale Hassan, and Banna Sawaneh. “Voters’ Education and Credible Elections in Nigeria: Issues and Challenges of 2019 General Elections” International Journal of Politics and Good Governance, 11, no. 11.1 (2020).
• 11 International Crisis Group, “Mitigating Risks of Violence in Nigeria’s 2023 Elections,” 10 February 2023 in https://www.crisisgroup.org/africa/west-africa/nigeria/311-mitigating-risks-violence-nigerias-2023-elections

Saheed Olasunkanmi Oduola

Saheed Olasunkanmi Oduola is a doctoral candidate in the Department of Political Science, Obafemi Awolowo University, Ile-Ife. He is also an administrative officer of the Deputy Provost’s Office, Federal College of Education (Special) Oyo, Oyo State. His research interests include local governance, human security, development studies, and conflict and peace studies. He has published papers at notable high impact factors journals. Oduola has also received a M.Sc. degree from the Department of Local Government and Development Studies, Obafemi Awolowo University, Ile-Ife, Master and Postgraduate Diploma in the Department of Public Administration, Obafemi Awolowo University, Ile-Ife, and a B.Sc. Politics, Philosophy... Read more

• Ray Kurzweil on how AI will transform the physical world

The changes will be particularly profound in energy, manufacturing and medicine, says the futurist

B Y THE TIME children born today are in kindergarten, artificial intelligence ( AI ) will probably have surpassed humans at all cognitive tasks, from science to creativity. When I first predicted in 1999 that we would have such artificial general intelligence ( AGI ) by 2029, most experts thought I’d switched to writing fiction. But since the spectacular breakthroughs of the past few years, many experts think we will have AGI even sooner—so I’ve technically gone from being an optimist to a pessimist, without changing my prediction at all.

After working in the field for 61 years—longer than anyone else alive—I am gratified to see AI at the heart of global conversation. Yet most commentary misses how large language models like Chat GPT and Gemini fit into an even larger story. AI is about to make the leap from revolutionising just the digital world to transforming the physical world as well. This will bring countless benefits, but three areas have especially profound implications: energy, manufacturing and medicine.

Sources of energy are among civilisation’s most fundamental resources. For two centuries the world has needed dirty, non-renewable fossil fuels. Yet harvesting just 0.01% of the sunlight the Earth receives would cover all human energy consumption. Since 1975, solar cells have become 99.7% cheaper per watt of capacity, allowing worldwide capacity to increase by around 2m times. So why doesn’t solar energy dominate yet?

The problem is two-fold. First, photovoltaic materials remain too expensive and inefficient to replace coal and gas completely. Second, because solar generation varies on both diurnal (day/night) and annual (summer/winter) scales, huge amounts of energy need to be stored until needed—and today’s battery technology isn’t quite cost-effective enough. The laws of physics suggest that massive improvements are possible, but the range of chemical possibilities to explore is so enormous that scientists have made achingly slow progress.

By contrast, AI can rapidly sift through billions of chemistries in simulation, and is already driving innovations in both photovoltaics and batteries. This is poised to accelerate dramatically. In all of history until November 2023, humans had discovered about 20,000 stable inorganic compounds for use across all technologies. Then, Google’s GN o ME AI discovered far more, increasing that figure overnight to 421,000. Yet this barely scratches the surface of materials-science applications. Once vastly smarter AGI finds fully optimal materials, photovoltaic megaprojects will become viable and solar energy can be so abundant as to be almost free.

Energy abundance enables another revolution: in manufacturing. The costs of almost all goods—from food and clothing to electronics and cars—come largely from a few common factors such as energy, labour (including cognitive labour like R & D and design) and raw materials. AI is on course to vastly lower all these costs.

After cheap, abundant solar energy, the next component is human labour, which is often backbreaking and dangerous. AI is making big strides in robotics that can greatly reduce labour costs. Robotics will also reduce raw-material extraction costs, and AI is finding ways to replace expensive rare-earth elements with common ones like zirconium, silicon and carbon-based graphene. Together, this means that most kinds of goods will become amazingly cheap and abundant.

These advanced manufacturing capabilities will allow the price-performance of computing to maintain the exponential trajectory of the past century—a 75-quadrillion-fold improvement since 1939. This is due to a feedback loop: today’s cutting-edge AI chips are used to optimise designs for next-generation chips. In terms of calculations per second per constant dollar, the best hardware available last November could do 48bn. Nvidia’s new B 200 GPU s exceed 500bn.

As we build the titanic computing power needed to simulate biology, we’ll unlock the third physical revolution from AI : medicine. Despite 200 years of dramatic progress, our understanding of the human body is still built on messy approximations that are usually mostly right for most patients, but probably aren’t totally right for you . Tens of thousands of Americans a year die from reactions to drugs that studies said should help them.

Yet AI is starting to turn medicine into an exact science. Instead of painstaking trial-and-error in an experimental lab, molecular biosimulation—precise computer modelling that aids the study of the human body and how drugs work—can quickly assess billions of options to find the most promising medicines. Last summer the first drug designed end-to-end by AI entered phase-2 trials for treating idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis, a lung disease. Dozens of other AI -designed drugs are now entering trials.

Both the drug-discovery and trial pipelines will be supercharged as simulations incorporate the immensely richer data that AI makes possible. In all of history until 2022, science had determined the shapes of around 190,000 proteins. That year DeepMind’s AlphaFold 2 discovered over 200m, which have been released free of charge to researchers to help develop new treatments.

Much more laboratory research is needed to populate larger simulations accurately, but the roadmap is clear. Next, AI will simulate protein complexes, then organelles, cells, tissues, organs and—eventually—the whole body.

This will ultimately replace today’s clinical trials, which are expensive, risky, slow and statistically underpowered. Even in a phase-3 trial, there’s probably not one single subject who matches you on every relevant factor of genetics, lifestyle, comorbidities, drug interactions and disease variation.

Digital trials will let us tailor medicines to each individual patient. The potential is breathtaking: to cure not just diseases like cancer and Alzheimer’s, but the harmful effects of ageing itself.

Today, scientific progress gives the average American or Briton an extra six to seven weeks of life expectancy each year. When AGI gives us full mastery over cellular biology, these gains will sharply accelerate. Once annual increases in life expectancy reach 12 months, we’ll achieve “longevity escape velocity”. For people diligent about healthy habits and using new therapies, I believe this will happen between 2029 and 2035—at which point ageing will not increase their annual chance of dying. And thanks to exponential price-performance improvement in computing, AI -driven therapies that are expensive at first will quickly become widely available.

This is AI ’s most transformative promise: longer, healthier lives unbounded by the scarcity and frailty that have limited humanity since its beginnings. ■

Ray Kurzweil is a computer scientist, inventor and the author of books including “The Age of Intelligent Machines” (1990), “The Age of Spiritual Machines” (1999) and “The Singularity is Near” (2005). His new book, “The Singularity is Nearer: When We Merge with AI”, will be published on June 25th.

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By invitation june 22nd 2024, vladimir putin’s war against ukraine is part of his revolution against the west.

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This Year’s Pacific Island Elections Have 1 Thing in Common

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In a busy year of Pacific Island elections, a worrying gender disparity is evident. This has implications for the quality of democracy in the region.

Marshall Islands President Hilda Heine (right) greets then President Tsai Ing-wen of Taiwan. Heine is currently one of only two women heads of state in the Pacific region.

It’s shaping up to be a busy year for elections in the Pacific Islands.

Tuvalu and Solomon Islands have already gone to the polls for national elections, and Vanuatu recently concluded its first national referendum. National elections will be held later in the year in Palau and Kiribati. Meanwhile, the largest country in the region, Papua New Guinea, has local level government elections scheduled for the latter half of the year.

These contests are taking place in diverse contexts, but they have much in common: a lack of gender parity among candidates and lower levels of engagement by women.

This lack of parity reveals a gender gap in the region’s politics that could have serious implications for democracy.

What Pacific Elections Have in Common

All the Pacific Islands countries going to the polls in 2024 have very low levels of women’s political representation. 

After January’s elections, Tuvalu now has no women parliamentarians at all. The Pacific Islands region has the lowest proportion of female politicians in the world. There are only two women heads of state across the region: President Hilda Heine of the Marshall Islands, and Fiamē Naomi Mata’afa, prime minister of Samoa.

There are other similarities between this year’s Pacific Islands elections.

Polls represent significant logistical challenges and can strain administrative capacity. The April elections in Solomon Islands were delayed a year, and PNG’s local polls have already been delayed two years.

These elections are also taking place in the context of rising geopolitical tensions surrounding China and Taiwan. 

Solomon Islands and Kiribati both switched recognition to Beijing in 2019, while Tuvalu and Palau continue to recognize Taiwan, although evidence is limited that foreign policy plays a decisive role in domestic elections in the region.

While these last two factors are not overtly linked to gender parity, they can overshadow women’s political participation as a priority.

The Revitalised Pacific Leaders Gender Equality Declaration endorsed in 2023 by Pacific Islands Forum Leaders clearly outlines a goal of strengthening women’s participation in leadership and decision-making, yet issues with electoral administrative capacity at the domestic level, and an overwhelming focus on strategic tensions at the international level, can limit the attention paid to this pressing issue.

Gender Participation Differences are Clear

Evidence on why Pacific voters make the decisions they do is limited. There is a long-standing assumption in Pacific politics research that politics is hyper-localized, with personalized relationships between politicians and voters determining elections. 

But this assumption is challenged by emerging dynamics in the region. In Solomon Islands this year, various politicians successfully campaigned on national rather than local issues, albeit in campaigns that were still very focused on individual candidates rather than party platforms.

The immense diversity of electoral systems across the region also complicates this picture. In Kiribati, for example, the president is directly elected, prioritizing a focus on national issues.

A general lack of political attitudes data in the region hinders our understanding of what women voters actually want. We cannot draw on representative opinion or exit polls to draw conclusions here, and Pacific Islands countries are excluded from global datasets on popular attitudes. 

But the Pacific Attitudes Survey project is attempting to change this, and findings from the first two surveys in Samoa (2021) and Vanuatu (2023) give us some insight into gender and political participation. The surveys show that key political issues are not necessarily gendered. When asked about the most important issues facing their countries, men and women respondents highlighted economic concerns, with health in Samoa and climate change in Vanuatu also seen as critical.

But gender differences were clearly apparent in survey responses regarding political efficacy and participation. In Samoa and Vanuatu, men were far more likely to report interest in politics than women, and far more likely to participate in all forms of political activity. In Samoa, women were significantly more likely than men to agree that “for people like me it does not really matter what kind of government they have.” This points to a substantial, and concerning, gender gap in political participation that has implications for the quality of democracy in the region.

Pacific women are also engaging with politics at far lower rates than men as voters, candidates, and politicians creating a male-dominated system in which women’s voices at all levels are under-represented. What data we do have on political attitudes underlines the extent and significance of this problem.

Given the limitations of the data researchers currently have on women’s political engagement in the Pacific Islands, we would greatly benefit from more extensive and region-wide surveys on political attitudes.

There are many mooted solutions to boosting women’s political participation including quotas, which are not common practice across the region, and other changes to make political candidacy more viable for women such as challenging Samoa’s rule that only matai, or chiefs, can be political candidates.

A solid evidence base would make for better and more effective policy change.

In the meantime, however, it is clear that the gender gap in Pacific politics, extending from voters to candidates and elected politicians, is a critical concern.

Originally published under Creative Commons by 360info ™.

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SCOTUS ruling on government communication with social media companies

☀️ Happy Thursday!   The Briefing is your guide to the world of news and information . Sign up here!

In today ’ s email:

• Featured story: SCOTUS rules that Biden administration did not unlawfully coerce social media companies into removing content
• In other news: AP launches nonprofit to support local news
• Looking ahead: The New York Times plans to move podcasts behind paywall
• Chart of the week: Americans’ fatigue over election coverage

🔥  Featured story

The Supreme Court yesterday rejected a lawsuit alleging the Biden administration unlawfully coerced social media companies into removing content. Writing for the majority, Justice Amy Coney Barrett concluded that past restrictions on content could not be directly tied to the White House’s communications with the social media platforms, and that the platforms were already moderating content themselves. The ruling means there will not be new limits on how the government can communicate with tech companies.

According to a 2023 Pew Research Center analysis , support for both technology companies and the U.S. government taking steps to restrict false information online has grown in recent years. For example, the share of U.S. adults who say the federal government should do this has risen from 39% in 2018 to 55% in 2023. Most Americans are also supportive of tech companies and the government taking steps to restrict extremely violent content online.

📌  In other news

• The Associated Press launches nonprofit to support local news
• TikTok creators host virtual town halls with third-party candidates
• The Russian trial of Wall Street Journal reporter Evan Gershkovich began yesterday 
• What does Julian Assange’s release mean for the future of press freedoms ? 
• U.S. bankruptcy trustee plans to shut down Alex Jones’ Infowars 
• California news publishers and Big Tech companies considering compromise on payment for news articles as legislation advances
• Indonesia’s new broadcast bill to block LGBTQIA content from the internet
• A  closer look  at the turmoil inside  The Washington Post

📅  Looking ahead

The New York Times plans to move its top podcasts behind a paywall, according to people familiar with the matter . This first push would include all but the three latest episodes of The Daily and all new episodes of its Serial show. The Times is expected to eventually adopt a subscription service for most or all of its podcasts.

In a 2022 Center survey about podcasts , just 13% of all podcast listeners (i.e., those who reported listening to a podcast in the past 12 months) said that they have paid for a subscription to a podcast.

Another Center survey conducted in 2023 found that three-in-ten U.S. adults say they at least sometimes get news from podcasts.

📊  Chart of the week

As President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump prepare to debate tonight, our chart of the week comes from our recent analysis of Americans’ attention to election news .

Although many Americans are following news about the 2024 presidential candidates, they are also experiencing fatigue over election coverage. About six-in-ten U.S. adults (62%) already say they are worn out by so much coverage of the campaign and candidates, according to an April survey. Another 35% say they like seeing a lot of this coverage. People who follow election news very closely are far less likely to say they are worn out.

👋 That’s all for this week. 

The Briefing is compiled by Pew Research Center staff, including Naomi Forman-Katz, Jacob Liedke, Sarah Naseer, Christopher St. Aubin, Luxuan Wang and Emily Tomasik. It is edited by Katerina Eva Matsa, Michael Lipka and Mark Jurkowitz, and copy edited by Rebecca Leppert.

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• Saturday, 29th June, 2024
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Calls Mount for Joe Biden to Quit Presidential Race after Debate Fumble 11 hours ago

To boost liquidity, rates’ convergence, others, cbn unveils guidelines for fx deposit by banks 11 hours ago, nec silent on new wage, govs to keep engaging parties for resolution 1 day ago, akpabio: no amount of blackmail will stop senate from approving new aircraft for president 1 day ago, latest headlines.

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US-CDC Launches Baby-Shower Programme to Halt Child HIV Infection

Misconduct: ncos dismisses three officers, sanctions others, my thoughts on the 2023 presidential election.

Pendulum By Dele Momodu, Email: [email protected]

PENDULUM BY DELE MOMODU

Fellow Nigerians, you would agree with me that the race for Nigeria’s Presidential election has started in earnest. Many aspirants have already removed their gloves and are crisscrossing the country and engaging in consultations with the influential stakeholders of their respective political parties and persons of political, business and social clout generally.

Exciting times are here again! However, let me advise those wanting to run for the most exalted political office in our country to kindly cool temper and not only do the right things, but reflect on their environment and the mood of the nation. I have noticed that most of the aspirants don’t think Nigeria can ever change. Similarly, they don’t even think the youths would ever have a say in what goes on in their country. And if they do, they do not believe that they should be given a chance or have a voice. They see and treat the young ones as being totally helpless and hopeless.

This attitude may well turn out to be their failing and downfall. As the saying goes, pride goeth before a fall. The arrogance of our politicians and their disdain and disrespect of the youths is distressing and disheartening, but it may also turn out to be a blessing when the young folks take matters into their own hands and demonstrate that they are a veritable force to be reckoned with.

Let me explain why our politicians often feel so cocky and self-assured. One. They know the power and influence of cash in the affairs of human beings everywhere in the world. So, Nigeria can’t be an exception. As a matter of fact, it is a crime to be poor in our dear beloved country. This is the reason many people prefer politics to their daily chores. They see politics as the fastest and shortest route to unimaginable wealth. But I believe many people feel that things have shifted in the right direction since Major General Muhammadu Buhari returned to power in 2015. He has made the young ones so angry to the extent that they can no longer ignore the shenanigans of politicians. We must therefore thank God for little mercies.

Out of bad situations, some good stuff often come out. Buhari has left us with no choice but to work harder than ever at sacking his ruling government from power. That this must be done by our concerted effort, just like we assisted him in sacking Goodluck Jonathan has become imperative and plainly obvious. For that reason, cash and power have taken a bit of a back seat. However, while this task may appear simple for now, I am under no illusion that sacking APC ignominiously from power would ever be an easy walkover. It will be an arduous objective to attain because APC holds the appurtenances of power tightly by the reins and is unwilling to let go without an almighty struggle and fearsome battle.

Two. The politicians understand the fact that most of our youths hardly show interest in political affairs. While many would sit endlessly on social media throwing verbal missiles, deservedly, at our leaders, they do nothing concrete about regime change. So, the politicians come round every election cycle to exploit the unfortunate lacuna created by the disinterest, lethargy, negativity and apathy of the youths in this respect. If anything must change, our youths must show more than mere cursory interest in politics and the electoral process. Anything short of this would continue to spell doom for our great nation. I believe that there is some awakening, but it must be turned into a groundswell of movements. The momentum must be heightened, and the volume turned up.

Three. The politicians understand that many young ones have little knowledge of the required structures and platforms which are very necessary and key for winning elections. They dissipate too much time, energy and resources on political parties without prospects and end up becoming serial losers. If truth must be told, it is virtually impossible to win Presidential election from a local political party with no extensive national spread. I can place a huge bet on this with the knowledge that I will win every time. Practically all the younger aspirants expect automatic tickets from their little-known minnows of political parties. They do not even want competition from their contemporaries. They’ve conveniently abdicated their awesome collective power to the older politicians who know the game too well because of their individual and selfish interests and ambition. Ambition which cannot be realised or fulfilled using the present format and template they have adopted of going it solo.

Fourth is a corollary of the third and arises from the lack of consensus on the part of the youths to come together, join forces and adopt one of their own as a formidable flag bearer. Everyone wants to have and secure an automatic ticket from a small and weak political party while the older foxes outsmart them by bonding together in the biggest political parties. When the youths are busy speaking in dulcet, still and staccato voices, the older ones are laughing heartily at the lack of basic knowledge of what it takes to win national elections. What our young Presidential hopefuls embark upon in a bid for the highest position in the land is only good to win localised elections in their constituencies.

Fifth is the search for saintly candidates by the younger ones while the older ones already understand the axiom and the reality that Leadership is about managing people and resources and not about being a perfect or virtuous man or woman. While some are busy groping in total darkness searching for non-existent candidates, the older brigade will quickly identify and settle for popular candidates even if their antecedents are not so glamorous or righteous. They know the game too well, that politics is first and foremost a popularity contest.

On this basis, it was possible for non-career politicians like Donald Trump of America and Moshood Abiola of Nigeria to win elections almost effortlessly. They had spent many decades building stupendous brands and the kind of the popularity that would be so rock solid that regular candidates would never be able to defeat. It would be foolhardy of any political party to field the typical politician in 2023 and hope to win against an incumbent political party. I have been persistently drumming this fact in the ears of whosoever cares to listen to my sermons or read my epistles. Let me give one quick example in our contemporary history.

Senator Ademola Nurudeen Adeleke of Osun State is easily a Governor in waiting in Osun State today because of his humongous popularity. All the attacks against his person have failed to weaken the love his people have for him. I have had this argument with a few of his opponents that PDP can’t afford to ignore such a popular candidate who is palpably loved even beyond his State. Even if he has his little weaknesses and foibles, like the rest of us mortals do, but they are not fatal or destructive. He comes from an impeccable pedigree of political and business family which more objective and discerning people can see. In 2023, an opposition party must think outside the box and seek out very popular candidates with the right mindset to reunite Nigeria. I am of the opinion that power must shift to the South, and to a much younger man, or woman, by all peaceful means.

This is very reasonable and right to me after eight years of Buhari who would be close to 81 years by the time he bows out of power. While I will never disqualify any Nigerian from contesting on account of age, ethnicity, gender or religion, I will be proud to see some fresh candidates and a fresher President at the end of the exercise. Nigeria is already too polluted to field some odoriferous candidates in this next Presidential race. Anyone who would have to be spending more time than necessary defending his past would not augur well for a party and a country that desperately needs a new lease of life. By 2023, the June 12, 1993, debacle would have been 30 years behind us.

It would be nice and beneficial to see that we’ve learnt some useful lessons, and we’ve made some substantial progress, since then. Right now, this is sadly not the case. It would be tragic if we fail to use the occasion to re-enact the Moshood Abiola magic using a similar template to that which propelled him to undoubtedly win the election. President Buhari may still have a chance to complete the type of revolutionary transition proffered by President Ibrahim Babangida, which produced that uncommon mandate, if he signs the new electoral reforms into law. It is a chance too great to be missed by any serious leader.

The main opposition Party must do everything within its power to think and act outside the box. No serious or discerning football team plays Brazilian style while playing Brazil. You must play a style Brazil is not used to. Politics is a numbers game. Only the youths can readily guarantee incredible numbers during elections. This is a truism anywhere in the world. Tried, tested and successful when the youths know their force and power. They usually don’t vote because they can’t see candidates they adore or can relate with in the race. You can’t blame them when they can’t connect to certain candidates whose antecedents are not attractive to them. This is the bitter truth. I sincerely pray that my own party, PDP, won’t take this week’s message lightly. I know what the young voters want to see in 2023. The End SARS event has opened their eyes to the enormous powers they wield, and they are most willing to test this newfound weapon during the next general elections… Let’s keep our fingers crossed…

Pastor Paul Adefarasin’s Sermon of the Year

If there’s one sermon many Nigerians won’t forget in a jiffy, it is the sermon popularly known as the “PLAN B” by Pastor Paul Adefarasin of House on the Rock. I have always been an admirer of his style of preaching because I’m a big fan of practical preachers. I have good news for my readers today. Make no mistakes about it, please listen to Pastor Adefarasin and hearken to his admonition if you can afford it. We must all have a Plan B. I even recommend a Plan C and D if possible and affordable.

The world is in great turmoil today and it is as if the Third World War has descended upon us. COVID 19 and its many variants have turned the world upside down and we are all fighting invisible enemies.

Thus, the time has come to take practical steps to protect yourselves and loved ones and be ready to move in an instant, in a jiffy. Many countries, especially the Caribbean nations are now providing opportunities to make second citizenship possible for those from tough countries such as ours. As patriotic as I am, and as passionate about Africa as I know I am, I believe the world needs to move closer, for each and every one of us, as much as possible. The trauma of looking and applying for visas can be very devastating and sometimes humiliating. With Red Lists and international movement restrictions being the order of the day, it is imperative to indeed have a Plan B in this area, just as one must make serious alternative financial plans to secure our continued existence and those of our families..

This is why I wish to introduce one of the wave-making citizenship and travel opportunities to you if you’re not already aware of it. Many of my friends have done so already. You can also save up money for yours. I am not a financial or travel analyst or planner and I disclaim all responsibility for any mishap or misfortune if you do not seek formal legal and financial advice when embarking on measure to secure your future, including your Plan B.

This opportunity which I commend to you for further consideration and research is titled “Own your share of Grenada’s Future Economy!” It is a SKYDWELLERS HEAVEN initiative in exclusive collaboration with the GRENADA NATIONAL RESORT PROJECT. According to its Proprietor, Mrs Judy Austin, it provides an opportunity for Nigerians to be part of the future of Grenada. She enthuses:

“Be a part of Grenada’s largest foreign Investment Project; The Grenada’s $5 Billion Dollar National Resort Project (A key National Development Project in Grenada with 5 Star Hotel Property, International Golf Course, Casinos, Amusement Parks, Duty Free Shops, Turtle Museum and Water Parks) and take ownership of Grenada’s Citizenship for you and your family with access to: 1. Free Visa Travel to over 153 Countries Including UK, Countries in the Schengen Area and the USA E2 Treaty.

2. Live income tax free in your worldwide income. 3. Inclusive of Dependent Child up to 30 years of age and Dependent Parent from 55 years upwards. 4. Free Education for your citizen children in top Grenada University. 5: All in 3-4 Months Process time You can make your applications through SKYDWELLERS LAWYERS. 1: Pay your Non-refundable application, government process, legal and due diligence Fees ($50,000). Then wait for approval from Grenada Govt CBI Unit. And once application is approved. 2: You Buy your $220,000 shares contribution for family or $150,000 for individual and your passport is issued. You are allowed to Sell back your shares and get back your full refund of either $220,000 or $150,000 after five years.”

This seems very simple and practicable! According to its CEO, Mrs Austin, Skydwellers Heaven is an exclusive Partnering Consultant of the Grenada National Resort Project in Africa. The Company is a one-stop shop for International Consultancy in all areas of Business with over 15 years’ experience selling International Real Estate Investment. It specialises in Residency and Citizenship by Investment and has experienced and knowledgeable staff with a network of trusted partners globally.

Feel free to visit their website at: www.skydweller.ca

And I must repeat, always make sure that you consult and seek the advice of your financial and legal advisers before taking any investment or business decision. It is important and necessary to do so.

You may thank the man of God who has opened many eyes to certain eventualities and possibilities. I feel that this may be one of them, if fully and properly considered…

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