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Drone view captures a drilling location in the West Texas Permian Basin at sunset.
Big energy analytics and advisory firm Enverus reports this week that oil and gas upstream mergers and acquisitions reached a new first quarter high over the initial three months of 2024. In a release sent out Tuesday, report author Andrew Dittmar, Principal Analyst at Enverus Intelligence Research (EIR), says M&A activity for Q1 2024 totaled to more than $51 billion in deal value.
In an interview, Dittmar says the action started right after the holidays. “We woke up on January 4 to the news that Apache Corp. was doing a $4.5 billion deal to acquire Callon Energy,” he says. “We knew Callon had been on the block, so that wasn’t surprising, although it was a little surprising Apache was the acquiring company, just since they haven’t been all that active in the space.”
The record first quarter comes on the heels of the 21st century-high deal total of $192 billion for 2023. Although the Q1 total deal value of $51 billion maintains the pace set last year, Dittmar says he doesn’t expect it to continue for much longer. “The remaining inventory for potential deals remains in the Permian Basin,” he points out, adding, “and the Permian is increasingly controlled by ExxonMobil ExxonMobil , ConocoPhillips ConocoPhillips , Diamondback Energy, Chevron Chevron , and Occidental.”
All of those companies have executed major Permian-heavy deals in recent years, and Dittmar says they are now content to own as big a position in the most active basin in the country as they can. Big acquiring companies have in the past normally followed major transactions with a significant sell-off of non-core assets to high-grade their asset portfolios. But Dittmar says this hasn’t really happened related to Permian assets, denying smaller companies opportunities to grow their own inventories by snapping up those positions.
“Opportunities are still there for private equity, but they may need to get more creative,” said Dittmar. “That could include exploring more secondary targets like deep intervals in the Permian or pushing into areas like the Central Basin Platform. Ultimately, that is good for the industry, as private equity with a higher tolerance for risk compared to public companies has played a key role in finding additional resource. That is something we will need as the core shale plays continue to mature.”
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By far the biggest deal during Q1 2024 came in February, when Diamondback Energy Diamondback Energy acquired privately-owned Endeavor Energy Resources for $26 billion. Dittmar says this was the largest deal involving a family-owned producer EIR has tracked.
“Endeavor was a unique opportunity to acquire a legacy family-owned E&P with leases in the core of the Midland Basin acquired decades before Diamondback, or many of the other familiar shale names, were even in business,” said Dittmar. “There are a handful of other private family companies like Mewbourne Oil and Fasken Oil & Ranch that would similarly be highly sought after if they entertained offers to sell. However, there are no indications these closely held companies are looking to exit any time soon.”
That means that public companies looking to increase their inventory in the Permian will most likely be looking to fellow public companies to get a deal done. But the remaining roster of large public companies involved in the basin - like EOG, Devon Energy Devon Energy and Permian Resources - has also shrunk in recent years.
Potential large deals do still exist in other shale basins, as exemplified during Q1 by Chesapeake Energy’s Chesapeake Energy $11.5 billion acquisition of Southwestern Energy Southwestern Energy , whose major asset positions were in the gassy Haynesville and Marcellus basins. EIR notes that while that deal didn’t necessarily increase Chesapeake’s inventory life, it does provide increased potential exposure to the more lucrative international LNG export market through its enlarged position in the Haynesville.
One factor to keep an eye on here is that both the Cheseapeake/Southwestern deal and last fall’s deal by ExxonMobil to acquire Permian pure play Pioneer Natural Resources Pioneer Natural Resources have attracted scrutiny by the Federal Trade Commission. “The heightened review is a function both of an FTC that is increasingly active in anti-trust enforcement and a growing concentration of ownership of the key U.S. unconventional plays,” said Dittmar. “Ultimately, the most likely outcome is all these deals get approved but federal regulatory oversight may pose a headwind to additional consolidation within a single play.”
The Bottom Line
What we see here is a normal expected progression of dealmaking as the US shale industry moves on from the initial drilling boom phase in the maturity phase of development in America’s major shale basins. As the drilling boom began to fade during the 2017-2020 time frame, executives at the bigger companies like ExxonMobil and Chevron liked to talk about their goals of evolving their operations in areas like the Permian into more of a pure manufacturing process involving big acreage positions that enable them to deploy fewer drilling rigs, maximize production with longer laterals and enhanced technologies, and minimize costs through economies of scale.
While more deals no doubt still lurk out there to be made in the coming months, there is no real doubt that those larger companies have by and large now achieved that goal. For overall domestic production, this means that the explosive growth seen over the past decade will most likely slow.
With global demand for crude and natural gas still on an upward path, the spotlight will once again turn to OPEC+ and other global resource areas to keep markets balanced. The days of US shale serving as the global swing producer are growing short.
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Oil and gas companies are swimming in so much cash that they’re cutting back on borrowing at a faster pace
Last year, the demand for loans from fossil-fuel companies fell 6% year-on-year and that followed a decline of 1% in 2022.
From a climate perspective, this may sound like good news because the drop in bank lending to oil, gas and coal companies should mean less investment and less production over time.
The reality, however, is that oil and gas companies don’t need a lot of loans because they’re generating so much money these days from their underlying businesses, said Andrew John Stevenson, senior analyst at Bloomberg Intelligence. And that trend is likely to continue through the end of the decade, he said.
“The oil and gas industry has experienced a number of booms and busts over the past few decades, but for now, it appears to be flush with cash,” he said. The healthy balance sheets reflect the boost that companies have received from rising oil prices, buoyed by robust demand and OPEC+ production cuts.
The sector’s free cash flow is so strong that the group’s leverage ratio, which measures a company’s net debt relative to earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization, fell to 0.8 in 2023 from 2.4 in 2020, Stevenson said. The ratio will likely slide below zero by the end of the decade, he said.
Banks typically play a critical role in enabling oil and gas companies to fund their capital-spending plans, but that’s changing, Stevenson said. As a group, the oil and gas industry’s free cash flow-to-capital expenditures ratio rose to 1 last year from 0.4 in 2020, and it’s forecast to approach 1.4 by 2030. BI’s analysis shows the oil and gas industry’s free cash flow-to-capex ratio is poised to increase.
In other words, the average oil and gas company is now producing more cash than it needs to fund its capital expenditures through the end of the decade, Stevenson said. But for the environment, these trends aren’t helpful, he said.
Chevron Corp. and Saudi Aramco are among the companies that may “significantly increase” their oil and gas production through 2030 with “enough free cash on hand to support these investments,” Stevenson said. This will allow fossil-fuel companies to undermine “the banking sector’s efforts to keep the fuel in the ground as part of its push on climate,” he said.
Exxon Mobil Corp. and Chevron, which reported earnings Friday, are both predicting their production in the Permian Basin — the US region that already supplies more oil than Iraq — will climb by 10% this year.
The expected increase comes amid reports from the International Energy Agency that demand for oil is forecast to grow by about 1.3 million barrels a day this year to a record high.
BI provides estimates for the combined oil and gas production of 75 publicly traded companies.
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New Mexico reaches record settlement over natural gas flaring in the Permian Basin
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ALBUQUERQUE, N.M. (AP) — New Mexico has reached a record settlement with a Texas-based company over air pollution violations at natural gas gathering sites in the Permian Basin.
The $24.5 million agreement with Ameredev announced Monday is the largest settlement the state Environment Department has ever reached for a civil oil and gas violation. It stems from the flaring of billions of cubic feet of natural gas that the company had extracted over an 18-month period but wasn’t able to transport to downstream processors.
Environment Secretary James Kenney said in an interview that the flared gas would have been enough to have supplied nearly 17,000 homes for a year.
“It’s completely the opposite of the way it’s supposed to work,” Kenney said. “Had they not wasted New Mexico’s resources, they could have put that gas to use.”
The flaring, or burning off of the gas, resulted in more than 7.6 million pounds of excess emissions that included hydrogen sulfide, sulfur dioxide, nitrogen oxides and other gases that state regulators said are known to cause respiratory issues and contribute to climate change.
Ameredev in a statement issued Monday said it was pleased to have solved what is described as a “legacy issue” and that the state’s Air Quality Bureau was unaware of any ongoing compliance problems at the company’s facilities.
“This is an issue we take very seriously,” the company stated. “Over the last four years, Ameredev has not experienced any flaring-related excess emissions events thanks to our significant — and ongoing — investments in various advanced technologies and operational enhancements.”
While operators can vent or flare natural gas during emergencies or equipment failures, New Mexico in 2021 adopted rules to prohibit routine venting and flaring and set a 2026 deadline for the companies to capture 98% of their gas. The rules also require the regular tracking and reporting of emissions.
Ameredev said it was capturing more than 98% of its gas when the new venting and flaring rules were adopted, and the annual capture rate has been above 98% ever since.
A study published in March in the journal Nature calculated that American oil and natural gas wells, pipelines and compressors were spewing more greenhouse gases than the government thought, causing $9.3 billion in yearly climate damage. The authors said it is a fixable problem, as about half of the emissions come from just 1% of oil and gas sites.
Under the settlement, Ameredev agreed to do an independent audit of its operations in New Mexico to ensure compliance with emission requirements. It must also submit monthly reports on actual emission rates and propose a plan for weekly inspections for a two-year period or install leak and repair monitoring equipment.
Kenney said it was a citizen complaint that first alerted state regulators to Ameredev’s flaring.
The Environment Department currently is investigating numerous other potential pollution violations around the basin, and Kenney said it was likely more penalties could result.
“With a 50% average compliance rate with the air quality regulations by the oil and gas industry,” he said, “we have an obligation to continue to go and ensure compliance and hold polluters accountable.”
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